The Hong Kong petroleum sector is strong, with the three major oil companies leading the way. Which short-term bullish factors are worth paying attention to? International oil prices have risen to a near two-month high, what are the market expectations for the future?
On July 2nd, according to the Financial Association, the oil industry continued to rise in Hong Kong, with the overall growth rate leading.
As of the time of publication, CNOOC (00883.HK) and PetroChina (00857.HK) both rose more than 4%, Kunlun Energy (00135.HK) rose more than 3%, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386.HK) and Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (00338 .HK) followed suit.
Recently, tensions in the Middle East and frequent Atlantic hurricanes have caused concerns about the supply side. At the same time, the market expects strong summer demand and tight supply to push up international oil prices.
As of the time of publication, WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures have risen to their highest levels since May.
In addition, Zhang Xiufeng and Zhang Xuanyu, researchers at Cinda Futures, also stated in a report on July 2 that the market is still paying attention to the reduction in the number of US crude oil drilling rigs, which may ultimately lead to a decrease in crude oil production.
According to Baker Hughes' weekly report, recent drilling activities for US oil and natural gas have dropped significantly. The number of US oil drilling rigs has fallen to its lowest level since December 2021, and the number of natural gas drilling rigs has fallen to its lowest level since August 2021.
However, Huatai Futures Energy Team pointed out in a report on July 2nd that the current oil price is mainly supported by Saudi Arabia's significant reduction in exports, and there is no obvious improvement in demand. After pushing up oil prices, there may also be a basic negative feedback window for shorting oil prices.
On the other hand, in the Hong Kong stock market this year, high-dividend assets have performed better than the overall market. Some institutions believe that from the perspectives of profits, valuations, and funds, dividend assets are still an investment theme in the market. In the short term, as a high-yielding asset, oil stocks still attract incremental funds.
Huatai Futures believes that after the geopolitical premium is squeezed out, if the fundamentals perform weaker than expected, OPEC's extension of production cuts will play a supporting role, and oil prices may fluctuate in the range of around 80-90 US dollars per barrel.