For the third consecutive day, Nikkei Average has continued to rise, with financial stocks continuing to rise and TOPIX updating its year-to-date high daily.

Fisco Japan · Jul 2 11:13

日経平均は3日続伸。前日比149.52円高（＋0.38％）の39780.58円（出来高概算8億8000万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

1日の米国株式市場は反発。ダウ平均は50.66ドル高（＋0.13％）の39169.52、ナスダック指数は146.70ポイント高（＋0.83％）の17879.30、S&P500は14.61ポイント高（＋0.27％）の5475.09で取引を終了した。欧州株式市場でフランスの選挙結果を好感した買いが入り、その流れを受けて寄り付きは上昇。6月ISM製造業景気指数が市場予想に反し小幅に低下、3カ月連続での活動縮小となったことで、成長減速懸念から下落に転じた。長期金利の上昇も相場の重しとなり、ダウ平均は前営業日終値近辺で推移。ナスダック指数は根強いAI期待に買われたマイクロソフトなどが支えた。

米国株の上昇などを受けて、東京市場は買い優勢で取引を開始した。引き続き保険や銀行など時価総額が大きい金融株が上昇したことからTOPIX優勢の地合いが継続し、TOPIXは年初来高値を連日で更新した。日経平均は39929.67円まで上げ幅を広げた後は上値がやや重くなったが、前場のプライム市場の売買代金は久しぶりに2兆円を超えるなど商いはやや増加した。

日経平均採用銘柄では、コンテナ船市況の上昇が引き続き材料視されて、川崎汽船＜9107＞の上昇が目立つほか、長期金利の指標となる新発10年物国債利回りが1.08％台で推移していることから、T&Dホールディングス＜8795＞、MS＆AD＜8725＞、第一生命HD＜8750＞、東京海上＜8766＞、大和証G＜8601＞、野村＜8604＞、三菱UFJ＜8306＞、みずほ＜8411＞など金融株が総じて上昇。このほか、ミネベアミツミ＜6479＞、三菱重＜7011＞が買われた。

一方、エヌビディア株の上げ一服などを受けて、ソシオネクスト＜6526＞、レーザーテック＜6920＞、ルネサスエレクトロニクス＜6723＞など半導体株の一角がさえない。このほか、サッポロHD＜2501＞、高島屋＜8233＞、エーザイ＜4523＞、ニトリホールディングス＜9843＞、DIC＜4631＞が下落した。

業種別では、鉱業、保険業、証券・商品先物取引業、海運業、石油・石炭製品などが上昇した一方、パルプ・紙、倉庫・運輸関連業、陸運業、ゴム製品、鉄鋼などが下落した。

後場の東京市場は引き続き為替、金利市場を横目にTOPIX優勢の地合いは続くだろう。為替は1ドル161円50銭台で推移しており、昨晩の海外時間に161円70銭台に乗せた後も目立った円買いなどの動きは見られず。先週末のテレビ討論会の結果、トランプ前大統領の当選確率が高まったとの思惑から、トランプ氏が景気拡大のための財政拡張を実行するとの見通しが強まり米国金利は上昇。日本の10年国債利回りも1.08％まで上昇しているが、10年物国債の日米金利差は3.4％とやや拡大したことで、円安ドル高基調が強まっている。緩やかな円安推移のため、政府・日本銀行による円買い介入は実施しにくいとの見方も強く、1ドル162円台は時間の問題との声が多い。

本来、円安進行は輸出関連銘柄の追い風となるが、1日に発表された1－3月期GDPの再改定値が年率2.9％減と改定値（1.8％減）を大幅に下回る結果となったことで「日本の金融正常化は遠のいたことで脱デフレは先」といった日本経済に対するネガティブな見方が強まった可能性はある。金融株を中心とした日本株上昇の地合いは続いているが、GDPがネガティブ視されて日本株買いを手控えるムードが強まる展開も頭に入れておきたい。

The Nikkei average has risen for three consecutive days. It ended the morning session at 39,780.58 yen (approximately 880 million shares) with an increase of 149.52 yen (+0.38%) from the previous day.

The U.S. stock market rebounded on the 1st. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended trading at 39,169.52 (+50.66 or +0.13%), while the NASDAQ rose 146.70 points (+0.83%), closing at 17,879.30. The S&P 500 rose 14.61 points (+0.27%), closing at 5,475.09. The European stock market responded favorably to the French election results and rose at the opening. However, it turned downward due to concerns of growth slowdown after the June ISM Manufacturing PMI fell slightly below market expectations and contracted for the third consecutive month. The rise in long-term interest rates weighed on the market, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered around the previous day's closing level. The NASDAQ was supported by Microsoft and other AI stocks.

The Tokyo market opened with a strong buy, fueled by the rise in U.S. stocks. Financial stocks with large market capitalizations, such as insurers and banks, continued to rise, and the TOPIX remained strong, updating its year-to-date high for several consecutive days. The Nikkei average expanded its gains to 39,929.67 yen, and the trading volume in the Prime market in the morning session exceeded 2 trillion yen for the first time in a while as trading increased slightly.

In the Nikkei average stocks, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. <9107> stood out for its rise as the rise in container shipping market conditions were viewed as material. Financial stocks, such as T&D Holdings <8795>, MS&AD <8725>, Dai-ichi Life Holdings <8750>, Tokio Marine Holdings <8766>, Daiwa Securities Group <8601>, Nomura Holdings <8604>, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group <8306>, and Mizuho Financial Group <8411>, rose in general, as the yield of a new 10-year government bond, which is an indicator of long-term interest rates, remained at around 1.08%. In addition, MinebeaMitsumi <6479> and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <7011> were bought.

On the other hand, semiconductor stocks such as Socionext <6526>, Laser Tech <6920>, and Renesas Electronics <6723> were unimpressive due to the leveling off of Nvidia's stock price. Sapporo Holdings <2501>, Takashimaya <8233>, Eisai <4523>, Nitori Holdings <9843>, and DIC <4631> fell.

In terms of industry, mining, insurance, securities and commodity futures trading, marine transportation, and petroleum and coal products rose, while pulp and paper, warehouse and transportation-related industries, land transportation, rubber products, and iron and steel fell.

In the afternoon Tokyo market, the TOPIX dominant trend is expected to continue with an eye on the currency and interest rate markets. The exchange rate is hovering around 161 yen 50 sen per dollar, and there has been no significant movement such as noticeable yen buying after the rate rose to the 161 yen 70 sen level during overseas hours last night. Due to the speculation that former President Trump's chances of winning have increased after last weekend's TV debate, it is expected that he will execute fiscal expansion for economic growth, and the U.S. interest rate has risen. Japanese 10-year government bond yields have also risen to 1.08%, but the Japanese-U.S. interest rate differential on 10-year bonds has slightly expanded to 3.4%, strengthening the trend for a weak yen and a strong dollar. There is also a strong view that it is difficult for the government and the Bank of Japan to intervene by buying yen due to the gradual weakening of the yen.

Typically, a weaker yen would provide a tailwind for export-related stocks. However, the results of the revised GDP for the January-March period, which showed a 2.9% annualized decline, significantly lower than the revised value (-1.8% decline), may have increased the negative view of the Japanese economy, such as that Japan's monetary normalization has become more distant and it will take more time to get out of deflation. While the upward trend of Japanese stocks, centered around financial stocks, continues, it is important to keep in mind that negative mood surrounding the Japanese economy may restrain buying sentiment.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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日経平均は3日続伸、引き続き金融株上昇しTOPIXは連日で年初来高値を更新

For the third consecutive day, Nikkei Average has continued to rise, with financial stocks continuing to rise and TOPIX updating its year-to-date high daily.

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