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研报掘金|中金:百强房企销售数据好于预期 看好中国海外、华润置地、越秀地产等

Research Reports Digging Gold | CICC: Sales data of top 100 real estate companies better than expected, bullish on China Overseas, China Res Land, Yuexiu Property, etc.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Jul 2 10:54
On July 1st, Zhongjin Company issued a report stating that the A-share real estate sector rose across the board (Hong Kong stock market closed), and it is believed that it may be related to the better-than-expected sales data of the top 100 real estate companies disclosed on June 30th and the positive fundamental news such as the recent increase in transaction volume of second-hand houses in first-tier cities. Developers still recommend focusing on symbols with high-quality land reserves and both offensive and defensive capabilities, such as China Overseas, China Resources Land, and Yuexiu Property in Hong Kong stocks. Light-asset service companies may also benefit from the marginal improvement of industry trends. GreenTown Services, China Overseas Property Management, and Unisplendour Corp are recommended. Zhongjin believes that the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies in June increased by 33% compared to the previous quarter in May (considered better than seasonal patterns), and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 22% (a cumulative decline of 42% in January-May), of which the June sales of the top 10 real estate companies compared to the same period last year has narrowed to 4%, somewhat better than market expectations. Looking ahead, the base numbers in July and August are even lower, and the year-on-year decline may further converge; after September, the base numbers will rise, but if the current business climate can be basically maintained, the year-on-year performance is expected to stabilize. Looking at 2025, sales in the first quarter may perform better on the low base of 2024, so the overall year-on-year improvement in monthly sales may continue for the next 6-9 months and may have a positive effect on improving expectations. In the longer term, because the current intensity of land acquisition and land reserve levels of real estate companies are still in a downward trend, it is believed that the sales of new houses in 2025 and beyond may also be somewhat constrained by supply constraints, and its recovery is more likely to be gradual.

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