Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Wells Fargo & Co will add Tesla to its list of stocks to be shorted in the third quarter, believing that the stock may fall in the near future. Wells Fargo downgraded Tesla to a shareholding rating, and the bank expects Tesla's delivery growth to slow down due to declining demand and weakening sales boost from price cuts.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan and his team estimate that due to possible further price cuts and declining sales volume, the gross margin of autos excluding credit will further decline. Wells Fargo expects Tesla's delivery volume in fiscal year 2024 to be about 1.55 million vehicles, a decrease of about 14% year-on-year, which is about 13% lower than the market generally expects.
"We still pay attention to the slowdown trend in the three key regions of the United States, the European Union, and China. Besides pricing and model updates, there are almost no means to increase sales volume, because the company has adopted financing promotion measures, but the effect seems to be not significant. So far, the boost effect of sales volume by price cuts is decreasing."
Looking ahead, the popularity of electric vehicles in the United States and the European Union is tending to level off, coupled with the fierce competition in the Chinese market, and Tesla has few ways to increase sales volume. Wells Fargo's team of analysts is concerned about the demand for Model 2 and the profitability of a smaller mass-market model.
Wells Fargo pointed out that Tesla's fundamentals are not as good as other members of the "Magnificent Seven", and its current price-earnings ratio is about 82 times, while other members of the "Magnificent Seven" have a price-earnings ratio of about 35 times. Compared with other "Magnificent Seven", Tesla's generally expected growth in earnings per share in three years is lower. As for the dream of self-driving taxis, Wells Fargo pointed out that experts believe that this technology still needs several years, and they are skeptical about pure visual FSD.
After Chinese electric vehicle companies released strong delivery reports for June, Tesla rose 6.05% on Monday to $209.86. Tesla is expected to release second-quarter delivery data on Tuesday, with Wall Street estimating deliveries of about 420,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decline for two consecutive quarters.
It is understood that after the Q1 performance was released on April 24th, Musk reiterated the importance of FSD and will accelerate the launch of low-cost models, and Tesla ushered in a strong rebound. As of the close on July 1, Tesla had rebounded nearly 50% over a period of more than two months.
Editor/Lambor