Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
On July 1st, several auto companies released their new energy autos sales data for June, with many achieving excellent results. Among them,$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$/$Li Auto (LI.US)$delivering over 40,000 units in a single month, regaining the top spot in the new energy vehicle sector;$NIO-SW (09866.HK)$/$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$, $ZEEKR (ZK.US)$delivering over 20,000 units in a single month on average, reaching a new historic high.
Specifically, with regard to new carmakers, Li Auto still ranked first in new car deliveries for the month. In June 2024, Li Auto delivered 47,774 new vehicles, an increase of 46.7% year-on-year. In the second quarter of 2024, it delivered 108,581 vehicles, up 25.5% year-on-year. As of June 30, 2024, Li Auto's cumulative delivery volume reached 822,345 vehicles, ranking first in total delivery volume among Chinese new power brands.
Li Xiang, Chairman and CEO of Li Auto, stated that the sales momentum of the Ideal L-series could continue to increase in June. Li Auto successfully delivered more than 20,000 Ideal L vehicles in June, with the monthly delivery volume of the entire product line exceeding 40,000. Since the second quarter, with the double effect of the launch of the new Ideal L6 model and the improvement of store efficiency, Li Auto has returned to the top of the Chinese new power brand sales list and won the Chinese automotive brand sales crown in the new energy vehicle market above 200,000 yuan.
Official data shows that as of June 30th, 2024, Li Auto has 497 retail centers throughout China, covering 148 cities; 421 after-sales and repair centers and authorized body and spray paint centers, covering 220 cities. Li Auto has put into use 614 Ideal supercharging stations throughout the country, with a total of 2,726 charging piles.
$GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$By June 2024, total auto sales volume reached 166,085 units, an increase of 24% year-on-year, and the group management team decided to raise the annual sales target by about 5%, from 1.9 million units to 2 million units.
In June 2024,$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$/$XPeng (XPEV.US)$a total of 10,668 new vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 5%. Among them, the Little Xpeng, a "nine-crown king," delivered 1,687 units, with a total of 13,143 units delivered in the first half of the year, continuing to lead the pure electric MPV and pure electric three-row seat vehicle market. From January to June 2024,$XPeng (XPEV.US)$a total of 52,028 new vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 26%.
In June 2024, Nio delivered a total of 21,209 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 98%, reaching a historical new high. In the second quarter of 2024, Nio delivered 57,373 new vehicles, exceeding the delivery guidance, a year-on-year increase of 143.9%. In the first half of 2024, Nio delivered a total of 87,426 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 60.2%. As of now, Nio has delivered a total of 537,020 new vehicles.
JiKe (ZK.US) delivered 20,106 vehicles in June 2024, a year-on-year increase of 89%, a month-on-month increase of 8%, and the first time for a single month to break through 20,000 deliveries, reaching a historical new high. From January to June of this year, JiKe delivered a total of 87,870 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 106%, vying for the 2024 sales crown of Chinese pure electric brands above 200,000 yuan. Among them, JiKe001 has exceeded 10,000 deliveries for three consecutive months and has continued to be the sales champion of pure electric vehicles in the 250,000 yuan and above segment. As of the end of June, JiKe has delivered more than 280,000 vehicles.
In addition, the June delivery volume of the Lantu increased by 83% year-on-year, with a total of 30,376 units delivered from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 102%. Zhiqi Auto sold 6,015 cars in June, an increase of 200% year-on-year and 41% month-on-month, ranking among the top ten new domestic brands in the Chinese market in terms of sales.$Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock (601127.SH)$New energy auto sales reached 44,126 units, a year-on-year increase of 372.04%, of which sales of Chongqing Sokon industry Group Stock autos increased by 631.42% year-on-year, selling 41,457 units.$BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ)$/$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$In June, passenger vehicle sales reached 340,211 units, compared to 251,685 units in the same period last year.$SAIC Motor Corporation (600104.SH)$Sales of new energy autos in June exceeded 93,000 units, with cumulative sales of new energy autos exceeding 460,000 units in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 24%.
Earlier, data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed that in June, the retail scale of new energy passenger cars in China is expected to reach 860,000, an increase of 6.9% month-on-month and 32.7% year-on-year. The penetration rate is expected to increase to 49.1%. "Under the dual drive of new product volume and price decline, the new energy market scale will continue to steadily increase, and the penetration rate is expected to reach a new historical high," said the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
The China Automobile Dealers Association stated that in June, the passenger car market entered the closing period of the first half of the year, and car companies and dealers were eager to boost sales performance. In addition, the "scrappage-for-new" policy incentives and large-scale promotional activities such as the "618" sales promotion also jointly promoted the continuation of car buying enthusiasm in June.
Looking ahead to market performance, CITIC Securities research report said that it is bullish on this year's annual sales of new energy vehicles and overseas market prospects, especially the old-for-new policy launched at the end of April, which is expected to significantly boost annual sales. The beta coefficient of the sector is expected to be better in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year.
Editor / jayden