On July 1, Caixin reported that in the first quarter, Tesla delivered 386,810 autos globally, down 8.5% from the same period last year. This was also the first year-on-year decline in Tesla's delivery volume since 2020, sparking concerns about the company's growth prospects. On Tuesday, July 2, second-quarter delivery data will also be released, and Tesla's stock price may experience significant volatility.

Currently, the market generally expects Tesla's second-quarter deliveries to face challenges again. According to a survey of 12 analysts by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), Tesla's second-quarter delivery volume is expected to be 438,000 vehicles, compared with 466,000 vehicles in the same period last year, of which seven analysts have sharply lowered their expectations in the past three months.

This may be the first time that the world's largest electric auto manufacturer has seen two consecutive quarters of declining deliveries, as the company faces fierce competition in China and slowing consumer demand for electric autos, while Tesla itself lacks affordable new models.

Growth prospects are questioned.

After years of rapid growth, Tesla has entered a period of deceleration. The company warned in January that after months of price cuts, delivery growth in 2024 would "clearly decline."

In May's 2023 Impact Report, Tesla did not mention its previous goal of eventually selling 20 million vehicles a year, and outside speculation suggested that Tesla had abandoned the goal of selling 20 million vehicles by 2030.

Earlier this year, Musk promised to accelerate the launch of affordable models. However, people who work with this CEO say he is now focused on launching a fully self-driving auto, Robotaxi, which is scheduled to be officially released on August 8.

But some investors are worried that self-driving technology is difficult to perfect. Even so, investors overwhelmingly voted in favor of Musk's $56 billion compensation package at last month's annual shareholder meeting.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects Tesla's deliveries to fall 11% in the second quarter, the largest drop ever for the company. He says if delivery data is poor, it could refocus attention on Tesla's challenging fundamentals.

Tesla's stock has fallen 20% this year, making it the worst-performing stock among the seven giants, despite Musk's prediction in April that Tesla would increase sales this year.

Some analysts predict that the company will experience its first annual sales decline this year. Tesla's sales in Europe have been particularly weak, with sales falling 36% in May, due to reduced electric auto subsidies and poor demand from fleet operators. Last year, fleet operators accounted for nearly half of Tesla's European sales.

Meanwhile, Chinese competitors have launched cheaper models, and Tesla has been slow to progress in this regard. Tesla updated its Model 3 sedan at the end of last year, but made no major design changes. Tesla's best-selling models have undergone little change in recent years.

The company began delivering the Cybertruck electric pickup truck at the end of last year, but Musk expects mass production of the model to take until 2025. According to industry insiders, Tesla delivered a total of 10,525 Cybertrucks in 2024, with an average monthly delivery volume of 1,754.