FUTU Morning Post

US Stock Market Outlook: Three major futures indexes are slightly up before opening. Powell's heavyweight non-farm data will be released this week; Goldman Sachs warns that hedge funds are selling and shorting US stocks at the fastest pace in two years.

Futu News · Jul 1 20:28

全球宏观

周一盘前，三大股指期货小幅走高

鲍威尔登场！本周或提供新的货币政策信号

欧洲央行将于7月1日至3日举行年度研讨会，这将为主要央行发出新的货币政策信号提供一些机会。鲍威尔和威廉姆斯这两位超重磅的美联储官员都将发表讲话，FOMC还将公布会议纪要。中信证券研报表示，美联储整体保持中性立场，预计鲍威尔将“以时间换空间”，等待更多通胀好数据，抑制美国需求和通胀。

美国六月非农报告将于周五来袭

本周五将发布的美国6月非农就业报告将为劳动力市场提供一个强有力的观察视角，而私营企业的最新薪资和职位空缺情况也将成为本周焦点。Bloomberg数据显示，预计该报告将显示上个月美国经济新增18.8万个非农就业岗位，失业率稳定在4%。

七成民众质疑拜登能力，民主党内核心成员仍力挺：拜登不应退出竞选

在上周四美国首次大选电视辩论后，拜登的“灾难级”辩论表现已经引起了广泛争议。有超过七成美国人对拜登担任总统的能力提出质疑。然而，据报道，民主党人中的多数核心成员仍然支持拜登继续连任竞选。同时，拜登的竞选团队也强调，民调结果和一些专家的唱衰并不能体现美国民众的普遍意愿，他们坚持认为，在这场竞选辩论之后，仍然有很多民众支持拜登竞选总统。

大摩：特朗普胜选前景提振下，美债收益率曲线陡化交易吸引力上升

摩根士丹利表示，特朗普赢得美国总统大选的可能性上升，在这种情形下美国经济增长可能会放缓、通胀则可能加速，这使得押注美债收益率曲线变陡正变得有吸引力。策略师表示，自美国总统选举辩论以来，特朗普战胜拜登的可能性出现了明显的相对变化，“这一可能性的急剧转变有利于特朗普，且可能是一种独特的催化剂，让押注美债收益率曲线变陡变得有吸引力”。

美股风向变了？对冲基金以两年来最快速度抛售和做空

周一，高盛在一份报告中指出，随着美股创下历史新高后，对冲基金已开始转向快速抛售美股。高盛的分析师Vincent Lin表示，对冲基金在过去一个月里，积极抛售和卖空TMT板块（科技、媒体和电信），其中以半导体类股票为主，包括英伟达。仅6月份，对冲基金在美股TMT板块的净卖出额将创下高盛主要经纪业务的最大纪录。

油价下半年如何发展？分析师：80美元以上高位震荡

在欧佩克+（OPEC+）6月早些时候宣布将在10月份开始取消目前的部分减产措施后，针对油价的乐观预期发生改变，目前，分析师普遍预计国际油价2024年下半年将保持在80美元以上，在夏季需求旺季、欧佩克减产措施取消、地缘政治风险和美联储降息等多方因素博弈情况下，油价将在高位震荡。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前多数上涨，特斯拉、阿斯麦、亚马逊涨超1%，唯英伟达小幅下挫

特斯拉即将公布Q2交付数据，料连续第二个季度下降

在第一季度，$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$在全球交付了386810辆汽车，较去年同期下降8.5%，这也是特斯拉交付量自2020年以来首次同比下滑，引发了对该公司增长前景的担忧。据最新预测显示，特斯拉第二季度的汽车交付辆预计约为42万辆，低于上年同期的约46.6万辆，交付量可能连续第二个季度同比下降。

古尔曼：苹果Apple Intelligence今年秋季有望接入谷歌Gemini

彭博社记者马克・古尔曼上周日在最新一期Power On时事通讯中透露，$苹果 (AAPL.US)$今年秋季将宣布“至少另外一项”协议的达成，届时Apple Intelligence将有望接入$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$Gemini。古尔曼认为，苹果希望让AI成为直接获利的途径，而不仅仅是一系列旨在推动硬件产品发展的功能。

Meta无广告订阅模式引发监管风波，或面临欧盟制裁风险

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$将因其在Instagram和Facebook上提供无广告服务的订阅模式而受到警告，在欧盟根据严格的新规定对大型科技公司发起的最新攻击中，Meta平台公司可能面临巨额罚款。据知情人士透露，欧盟监管机构最早将于周一宣布，所谓的“付费或同意”政策违反了欧盟的《数字市场法案》(Digital Markets Act)。

美银上调亚马逊目标价至220美元，仍是FANG中的首选

美银证劵的研究报告指，$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$兴建了一座物流中心，料今年全球派送逾90亿件货物，目前有可能超越联合包裹成为美国最大的托运商。而派送速度亦大幅改善，有近25%的预期货件都可即日或翌日送达。该行将公司目标价由210美元升至220美元，仍是俗称FANG的四大科技股中的首选，重申“买入”评级。

机构：预计阿斯麦光刻机出货量2025年将增长30%

据TrendForce集邦咨询，$台积电 (TSM.US)$2nm工艺将在2025年量产，设备制造商正在紧锣密鼓的交付中。台积电今年和明年将接收超过60台，耗资约4000亿新台币（折合人民币约895亿元）。在台积电等龙头的需求驱动下，$阿斯麦 (ASML.US)$光刻机出货量2025年将增长30%。其中今年交付53台、明年交付72台。

特朗普媒体科技集团盘前涨近3%，巴克莱指特朗普大选获胜可能性似乎增强

在上周美国2024年总统选举首场电视辩论中，现任总统拜登和前任总统特朗普激烈交锋。民调数据显示，截至6月25日，特朗普在全国民调中平均领先拜登1个百分点；在关键“摇摆州”，特朗普平均领先3.2个百分点。巴克莱策略师们在最新报告中表示，随着美国前总统特朗普在11月5日大选中取代现总统拜登的可能性似乎增强。$特朗普媒体科技集团 (DJT.US)$盘前涨近3%。

Spirit AeroSystems盘前一度涨8%，获波音以37.25美元/股收购

董事会一致批准公司与波音和空客交易，波音以每股37.25美元收购Spirit AeroSystems，股权价值约为47亿美元。Spirit AeroSystems将把贝尔法斯特、普雷斯特威克、马来西亚的工厂卖给空客。

Spirit AeroSystems盘前一度涨8%，现涨幅收窄至4.59%。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前多数上涨，蔚来涨超4%，理想、贝壳涨超3%

“蔚小理”公布6月交付数据，盘前齐涨

$蔚来 (NIO.US)$6月交付21,209辆车，同比增长98.1%。第二季度交付57,373辆车，同比增长143.9%；$理想汽车 (LI.US)$6月交付量47774辆，同比增长47%；$小鹏汽车 (XPEV.US)$6月共交付新车10,668台，同比增长24%，环比增长5%。截至2024年6月30日，理想汽车累计交付量达到822,345辆，位居中国新势力品牌总交付量第一。

截至发稿，蔚来盘前涨超4%，理想涨超3%，小鹏汽车涨超1%。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

21:45：美国6月SPGI制造业PMI终值。

22:00：美国6月ISM制造业PMI、美国5月营建支出。

次日凌晨03:00：欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话。

编辑/emily

Global macro

Before Monday's opening, equity index futures edged up slightly.

Powell is on the stage! This week may provide new signals on monetary policy.

The ECB will hold its annual seminar from July 1 to 3, which will provide an opportunity for major central banks to issue new monetary policy signals. Federal Reserve officials Powell and Williams will speak and the FOMC will release meeting minutes. CITIC Securities' research report stated that the Federal Reserve remained neutral as a whole and expected Powell to "exchange time for space" by waiting for more positive inflation data, which would help to restrain demand and inflation in the United States.

US non-farm payrolls will be released on Friday.

This week's focus will be on the latest private sector wage and job vacancy situation, as well as a strong observation perspective on the US June non-farm employment report to be released on Friday. Bloomberg data shows that the report is expected to show that the US economy added 188,000 non-farm jobs last month, with an unemployment rate of 4%.

70% of the public questions Biden's ability, but core members of the Democratic Party still support him: Biden should not withdraw from the election.

Following the first US election debate last Thursday, Biden's "disastrous" debate performance has sparked widespread controversy. More than 70% of Americans questioned Biden's ability to serve as president. However, according to reports, most core members of the Democratic Party still support Biden's re-election campaign. At the same time, Biden's campaign team also emphasized that poll results and some experts' pessimism do not reflect the general will of the American people. They insist that there are still many people supporting Biden's presidential campaign after the debate.

Goldman Sachs stated in a report on Monday that hedge funds have begun to quickly sell US stocks after the stock market hit an all-time high. Goldman Sachs analyst Vincent Lin stated that hedge funds have been actively selling and short selling TMT sectors (technology, media, and telecommunications) and primarily semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia. In June alone, the net sales of hedge funds in the TMT sector of the US stock market will set a record high in Goldman Sachs' major brokerage business.

Morgan Stanley said that the possibility of Trump winning the US presidential election has increased. In this situation, the growth of the US economy may slow down and inflation may accelerate, making it attractive to bet on the steepening of the US bond yield curve. The strategist said that since the US presidential debate, there has been a noticeable relative change in the likelihood of Trump winning over Biden, "This sharp change in possibility favors Trump and may be a unique catalyst that makes it attractive to bet on the steepening of the US bond yield curve."

Has the wind shifted for the US stock market? Hedge funds are selling off and short selling at the fastest pace in two years.

On Monday, Goldman Sachs stated in a report that as hedge funds have begun to sell US stocks after its historical high, the trade of steepening the yield curve of US bonds become more attractive. According to Vincent Lin, an analyst of Goldman Sachs, for the past month, hedge funds have actively sold and shorted the TMT sectors (technology, media, and telecommunications); and among which, semiconductor stocks have been selling the most, including Nvidia. In June only, the net sales of hedge funds in the TMT sector of the US stock market will set a record high in Goldman Sachs' major brokerage business.

How will oil prices develop in the second half of this year? Analysts believe that they will fluctuate at high levels above $80. According to the current situation of the game between various factors such as peak summer demand, canceling the OPEC+ production reduction measures, geopolitical risks, and the interest rate reduction of the Fed, the oil price will oscillate at a high level.

After OPEC+ announced the cancellation of some production reduction measures in October, the optimistic expectation for oil prices changed. At present, analysts generally predict that international oil prices will remain above $80 in the second half of 2024. In the game of various factors such as peak summer demand, OPEC's production reduction measures cancellation, geopolitical risks, and the interest rate reduction of the Fed, oil prices will fluctuate at a high level.

Hot news

Most growth tech stocks rose before the market. Tesla, ASML, and Amazon rose more than 1%, while only Nvidia fell slightly.

Tesla is about to release its Q2 delivery data. It is expected that the delivery volume will decrease for the second consecutive quarter.

In the first quarter,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 386,810 cars globally, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%. This is also the first time that Tesla's delivery volume has declined compared to the same period since 2020, which has raised concerns about the company's growth prospects. According to the latest prediction, Tesla's car deliveries in the second quarter are expected to be about 420,000 vehicles, which is lower than the approximately 466,000 vehicles in the same period last year, and the delivery volume may decline year-on-year for the second consecutive quarter.

Gorman: Apple Intelligence is expected to integrate with Google Gemini this fall.

According to Mark Gurman, a reporter for Bloomberg, the announcement of at least one more agreement will be made this autumn, and Apple is likely to access Gemini through Apple Intelligence. Gurman believes that Apple hopes to make AI a direct profit avenue, not just a set of features aimed at promoting hardware product development.$Apple (AAPL.US)$Meta's ad-free subscription model has caused a regulatory storm and may face the risk of EU sanctions.$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Gemini. Goldman Sachs believes that Apple wants AI to be a direct source of profit, not just a series of features designed to drive hardware development.

Goldman Sachs stated in a report on Monday that as hedge funds have begun to sell US stocks after their all-time high, the trade of steepening the yield curve of US bonds become more attractive. According to Vincent Lin, an analyst of Goldman Sachs, for the past month, hedge funds have actively sold and shorted the TMT sectors (technology, media, and telecommunications); and among which, semiconductor stocks have been selling the most, including Nvidia. In June only, the net sales of hedge funds in the TMT sector of the US stock market set a record high in Goldman Sachs' major brokerage business.

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$Meta platform company may face considerable fines in the latest attack launched against major technology companies under strict new regulations in the European Union due to its warning about the subscription model offering ad-free services on Instagram and Facebook. According to insiders, the EU regulatory agency will announce as early as Monday that the so-called "pay or agree" policy violates the EU's Digital Markets Act.

Bank of America raised Amazon's target price to $220 and still is the top pick among the FANG stocks.

Bank of America Securities' research report indicates that $Amazon (AMZN.US)$A logistics center has been built and it is expected to deliver more than 9 billion goods worldwide this year, which may surpass United Parcel Service to become the largest carrier of goods in the United States. Delivery speed has also improved significantly, with nearly 25% of expected goods able to be delivered the same day or the next day. The company's target price has been raised from $210 to $220 and is still the top pick among the four major technology stocks commonly referred to as the FANG, reiterating a "buy" rating.

Institutions: It is expected that ASML Holding's lithography shipments will increase by 30% by 2025.

According to TrendForce Intelligence, the 2nm process will be put into mass production in 2025, and equipment manufacturers are in full swing to deliver. Taiwan Semiconductor will receive more than 60 units this year and next year, costing about NT$400 billion (approximately RMB 89.5 billion). Driven by demand from leading companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor, the shipment of lithography machines will grow by 30% in 2025. 53 units will be delivered this year and 72 next year. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$The 2nm process will begin mass production in 2025, and equipment manufacturers are in full swing to make deliveries. TSMC will receive more than 60 this year and next, at a cost of about NT$400 billion (about RMB 89.5 billion). Driven by demand from TSMC and other leading companies,$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$The shipment volume of lithography machines will increase by 30% in 2025. 53 units will be delivered this year and 72 next year.

Trump Media & Technology Group rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading, Barclays said the possibility of Trump's re-election seems to have increased.

In the first televised debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential election last week, incumbent President Biden and former President Trump clashed fiercely. According to poll data, as of June 25th, Trump led Biden by an average of 1 percentage point in national polls; in key swing states, Trump led Biden by an average of 3.2 percentage points. Barclays strategists said in a recent report that the likelihood of former U.S. President Trump replacing current President Biden in the November 5th election seems to have increased. $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$Rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading.

Spirit AeroSystems rose 8% in pre-market trading and was acquired by Boeing for $37.25 per share.

The board of directors unanimously approved the company's transaction with Boeing and Airbus. Boeing acquired Spirit AeroSystems for $37.25 per share, with equity valued at about $4.7 billion. Spirit AeroSystems will sell factories in Belfast, Prestwick and Malaysia to Airbus.

Spirit AeroSystems rose 8% in pre-market trading, with the gain now narrowed to 4.59%.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose in pre-market trading, with NIO up more than 4% and Li Auto, KE Holdings up more than 3%.

"Little Wei" announced delivery data for June and rose in pre-market trading.

$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$In June, 21,209 vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 98.1%. In the second quarter, 57,373 vehicles were delivered, an increase of 143.9% year-on-year; $Li Auto (LI.US)$In June, the delivery volume was 47,774, a year-on-year increase of 47%; $XPeng (XPEV.US)$In June, a total of 10,668 new vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 5%. As of June 30, 2024, Li Auto's cumulative delivery volume reached 822,345 units, ranking first among Chinese new forces brand's total delivery volumes.

As of publication, NIO rose more than 4% in pre-market trading, while Li Auto rose more than 3% and Xpeng rose more than 1%.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

21:45: June SPGI Manufacturing PMI in the United States.

22:00: The US June ISM Manufacturing PMI and US May construction spending.

03:00 the next day: ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech in Europe.

Editor/Emily

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