2 major bullish news hit ASML, will AI exceed expectations and spread to the upstream?

wallstreetcn · Jul 1 22:10

来源：硬AI
作者：张逸凡

AI需求究竟能不能继续超预期，一直是市场最关注的点。

$阿斯麦 (ASML.US)$、$台积电 (TSM.US)$、$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$算是AI产业链的上中下游，任何一家的数据变化都让投资者们的心砰砰直跳。

今天，《经济日报》报道，由于2nm制程需求强劲，台积电2025年资本支出有望达到320亿美元至360亿美元。相比于今年4月法说会上提到的 “2024年资本指出预计将介于280亿至320亿美元之间“，上调了约40亿美金。

台积电的超预期上调资本开支，市场自然而然想到ASML业绩是不是要上调了。

无独有偶，上周末，大摩发布了一篇报告，详细论述了ASML今年的业绩能否超预期的三大变量：

1）台积电在ASML订单情况；
2）HBM需求，三星、美光、海力士在ASML的订单情况；
3）中国市场的情况，收入占比高（24Q1，中国地区收入占ASML的比例是49%）；

对于ASML来说，不止是台积电带来了好消息，海力士也在本周上调了HBM的产能规划。

一下子两个催化因素到来，ASML股东是不是要开心了？我们具体来看。

1、台积电

《经济日报》今日报道，由于2nm制程需求强劲，台积电2025年资本支出有望达到320亿美元至360亿美元。相比于今年4月法说会上提到的 “2024年资本指出预计将介于280亿至320亿美元之间“，上调了约40亿美金。

40亿美金约可购买22台ASML EUV设备（单台EUV约1.73亿欧元）。

EUV光刻机主要用于3nm/2nm产线的建设。

此前台积电法说会透露2024、2025已经分别下单30台、35台EUV设备。这次上调资本开支，或将提升EUV设备的采购数量，ASML或受益。

不过，需要注意的是，台积电对此次上调资本开支的市场传闻表示不评论，并强调有关2nm和资本支出的进展以今年4月份的法说会内容为主。

2、HBM拉动

6月30日，SK Hynix宣布了将投资103万亿韩元（约合747亿美元），计划在2028年之前进一步加强其面向人工智能存储芯片业务。

据报道，其中约80%（即82万亿韩元）的投资将用于发展高带宽內存（HBM）芯片，以推动与AI芯片发展的配合。

正如大摩在近日的报告中预测的那样，HBM的大幅扩产，2024年美光、三星、海力士将加大订单需求，从而推动ASML业绩的增长。其中，海力士将继续作为HBM3和HBM3E的主导供应商，并在未来2-3年内保持50%以上的整体HBM市场份额。

此前，大摩在测算中假设24-26年，海力士资本开支是每年17万亿韩元。此次宣布2024年-2028年资本支出103万亿韩元，相当于每年开支在25万亿韩元，相信会进一步提升上游厂商的订单。

3、High NA EUV光刻机

不过，ASML也有一些新品上的风险。

对于下一代新品光刻机High NA EUV，大摩预测，ASML最快于2028年批量出货，这比之前预期的要晚。

去年12月，ASML向英特尔交付了全球首台High NA EUV光刻机设备，该设备可用于建设最先进的A10制程产线（目前的EUV设备主要是用于2/3nm制程），目前英特尔的进展也不顺利。

大摩预测，台积电不太可能在其 A10 节点之前大规模采用 ASML 的 High-NA 技术，预计该节点将在 2028 年开始量产。

编辑/jayden

The weather is good today The weather is good today.
Author: Zhang Yifan.

Whether AI demand can continue to exceed expectations has always been the most concerned issue in the market.

$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$As the upper, middle and lower reaches of the AI industry chain, any data changes of any company make investors' hearts beat faster.

Today, the Economic Daily reported that due to the strong demand for 2nm process, Taiwan Semiconductor's capital expenditure in 2025 is expected to reach 32 billion to 36 billion US dollars. Compared with the "Capital expenditure is expected to be between 28 billion and 32 billion US dollars in 2024" mentioned at the April investors' conference, it has been increased by about 4 billion US dollars.

Taiwan Semiconductor's unexpected increase in capital expenditures naturally makes the market think about whether ASML's performance should be raised.

Coincidentally, last weekend, Goldman Sachs released a report that elaborated on the three variables that could cause ASML's performance to exceed expectations this year:

1) ASML's order situation from Taiwan Semiconductor;
2) HBM demand, Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix's order situation from ASML;
3) The situation in the Chinese market, where the revenue ratio is high (in Q1 of 2024, the revenue from China accounted for 49% of ASML).

For ASML, not only has Taiwan Semiconductor brought good news, but SK Hynix has also raised its HBM capacity plan this week.

With two catalytic factors coming in at once, are ASML shareholders happy? Let's take a closer look.

1. Taiwan Semiconductor

The Economic Daily reported today that due to the strong demand for 2nm process, Taiwan Semiconductor's capital expenditure in 2025 is expected to reach 32 billion to 36 billion US dollars. Compared with the "Capital expenditure is expected to be between 28 billion and 32 billion US dollars in 2024" mentioned at the April investors' conference, it has been increased by about 4 billion US dollars.

About 4 billion US dollars can purchase 22 ASML EUV devices (each EUV costs about 173 million euros).

EUV lithography machines are mainly used for the construction of 3nm/2nm production lines.

Previously, Taiwan Semiconductor disclosed at the investors' conference that it had placed orders for 30 and 35 EUV devices for 2024 and 2025, respectively. This increase in capital expenditure may increase the number of EUV devices purchased, and ASML may benefit from it.

However, it should be noted that Taiwan Semiconductor has not commented on market rumors about this increase in capital expenditure, and emphasized that the progress of 2nm and capital expenditure is mainly based on the content of the investors' conference in April this year.

2. HBM boost

On June 30th, SK Hynix announced that it will invest 103 trillion won (approximately 74.7 billion US dollars) and plans to further strengthen its AI storage chip business before 2028.

According to reports, about 80% (approximately 820 trillion won) of the investment will be used to develop high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips to promote coordination with AI chip development.

As predicted in a recent report by Goldman Sachs, the significant increase in HBM production will increase demand for orders from Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix in 2024, thereby driving ASML's performance growth. Among them, SK Hynix will continue to be the leading supplier of HBM3 and HBM3E and maintain more than 50% of the overall HBM market share in the next 2-3 years.

Previously, Deutsche Bank assumed that Samsung's capital expenditure is 17 trillion won per year from 2024 to 2026. This announcement of 103 trillion won in capital expenditure from 2024 to 2028 is equivalent to spending 25 trillion won per year. It is believed that this will further increase orders for upstream manufacturers.

3. High NA EUV lithography machine

However, ASML also has risks with some of its new products.

For the next generation of new product lithography machines, the High NA EUV, Deutsche Bank predicts that ASML will not begin mass production until 2028 at the earliest, which is later than previously expected.

In December of last year, ASML delivered the world's first High NA EUV lithography machine to Intel. The machine can be used to build the most advanced A10 process line (current EUV equipment is mainly used for 2/3nm process), but Intel's progress is not going smoothly.

Deutsche Bank predicts that Taiwan Semiconductor is unlikely to adopt ASML's High-NA technology on a large scale before its A10 node, which is expected to begin mass production in 2028.

Editor / jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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2大利好突袭ASML，AI超预期向上游传导？