Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Tesla will announce its second-quarter delivery status this week, which is an event that investors are very concerned about. However, in the next month or so, there may be more events that affect Tesla's stock price in addition to this.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The company will announce its second-quarter delivery status this week, which is an event that investors are very concerned about. However, in the next month or so, there may be more events that affect Tesla's stock price in addition to this.
Delivery report
Tesla usually announces its global deliveries on the second day of the new quarter. According to the latest Wall Street forecasts, Tesla's Q2 car deliveries are expected to be about 420,000, lower than about 466,000 in the same period last year. Deliveries may continue to decline year-on-year for the second quarter in a row.
Analysts have been concerned about Tesla's delivery expectations due to concerns about consumer demand and registration data from Europe and China.
Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, said: "Tesla will announce its Q2 delivery data to end a very turbulent first half of the year for Musk-led company, as soft EV demand has been a top investor concern for Tesla and EV players in general."
In contrast, UBS expects deliveries to reach 420,000, while Barclays lowered its forecast for Tesla deliveries to 415,000 vehicles, marking an 11% decline year-on-year. Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets previously predicted 533,000 cars would be delivered in Q2, but lowered its forecast to 410,000 cars in recent months.
By contrast, Tesla delivered 386,810 cars in Q1, down from 466,140 cars in the same period last year. Tesla's highest quarterly deliveries were in Q4 2023, when it delivered 484,507 cars.
In terms of regions, Tesla's problem seems to be particularly serious in the European market. According to data from registration trackers, Tesla's deliveries are down by more than 60,000 vehicles from last year's record-breaking year. Because most of the differences have occurred in the past few months, Tesla's Q2 deliveries in the European market will be very difficult.
China remains one of Tesla's most important markets. Last month, Tesla's sales in China were improving due to new government incentives.
Ives said that with the growth of the Chinese market, Tesla's Q2 deliveries may see a "small rebound".
"Looking at Q2, there have been signs of stabilization from Tesla pricing over the past few months as most of the price cuts now appear to be in the rearview mirror," Ives said.
The situation in the US market is relatively opaque. Tesla has also implemented incentives in the US, and recently, the Model 3 Long Range version also received federal tax credits, which may help narrow the gap between delivery expectations and actual sales.
Robotaxi debut day
Tesla's stock has been in a continuous downturn this year, but in the past two weeks, it has risen by about 10%. This price trend seems to indicate that investors are more concerned about other developments at Tesla to some extent.
Admittedly, delivery data is important for a car company, but investors are also focused on the future. Ben Kallo, an analyst at Robert W. Baird, said: "Compared to Q1 2024, when investors were focused on short-term delivery expectations being too high, we're seeing more investors looking past deliverables to the 8/8 Robotaxi event and opportunities around FSD." He expects investors' focus to remain long-term until after the Robotaxi launch, with details possibly including the next generation of mass-market, low-cost cars.
"We believe the 8/8 Robotaxi debut will be a critical historic moment for the Tesla story and a next major catalyst," Ives said.
Tesla is planning an investor event on August 8th, where the company will detail its plans to use its autonomous driving software and technology. CEO Musk has said that autonomous driving cars are a tens of trillions of dollar opportunity and, based on recent Tesla stock price trends, investors seem to be excited.
"Ultimately reaching a $1 trillion-plus valuation is all about Tesla's autonomous driving vision, which appears to be starting to pay dividends with the latest FSD and FSD testing in China," added Ives, who has a buy rating on the stock and a target price of $275.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas also gave the stock a "buy" rating with a target price of $310. The analyst is excited about Tesla's emerging robotics business potential, and it is reported that Tesla is developing a robot that uses AI-based computing for training.
"Our view on Tesla is that it is both an auto stock, an energy and AI/robotics company. In fact, our valuation of the core auto business ($67/sh) represents only about 20% of our $310 target price," Jonas wrote in a recent report.
UBS, however, is more skeptical about whether the Robotaxi incident could be an immediate catalyst for Tesla's stock price. However, the bank believes that Tesla has made good technical progress in the Robotaxi and Optimus plans, and is more likely than most companies to utilize AI's performance in the physical world, which is considered to have more significant benefits for financial models.
Other key events
Analysts are not only focused on second-quarter delivery data. However, to some extent, these data are still important. The options market suggests that Tesla's stock price will rise or fall by 5% after the delivery report is released. After the past four reports were released, the stock price averaged an increase or decrease of about 3%. Tesla's stock price fell nearly 5% after it announced lower-than-expected first-quarter deliveries.
The second-quarter earnings report is expected to be released several weeks after the delivery data is announced, and this event may have an even greater impact on the stock price. After the past four quarterly reports were released, Tesla's stock price averaged an increase or decrease of 11%.
This report will once again focus on the automotive gross margin. It is noteworthy that Tesla's recent performance records show that it has missed more quarters than outperformed expectations.
As of last Friday’s close, Tesla's stock price has fallen 20% this year, while the S&P 500 index has risen about 18% during the same period. The slowdown in sales growth and the decline in profit expectations have weighed on investor sentiment.
Editor / jayden