The net profit of the 2024H1 superstar is expected to increase by 25%-35% year-on-year
Superstar Technology announced its semi-annual performance forecast for 2024. The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2024 to 1.091 billion yuan to 1.178 billion yuan, an increase of 25%-35% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 1.133 billion yuan to 1.224 billion yuan, which is expected to increase 25%-35% year-on-year. Benefiting from the recovery in overseas terminal demand and the increase in the company's orders and profitability, we raised our profit forecast. The company's 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 1.76, 2.06, and 2.38 (previous values of 1.68, 2.00, 2.30), respectively. Comparatively, the company's 24-year Wind unanimously anticipated an average PE value of 17 times. Considering that the company's overseas base was put into operation in 24, the company's revenue scale and profitability are expected to continue to increase. The company was given 19 times PE in 24 years, with a target price of 33.44 yuan (previous value 31.92) to maintain a “purchase”.
New products led to an increase in market share, and demand for terminals recovered after active warehousing was completed. According to the company's performance forecast, 2024H1 launched a large number of new products such as power tools and special cabinets, which significantly increased the terminal market share. Furthermore, judging from the general environment, inflation in Europe and the US has eased, and demand for terminal market tools has recovered; downstream customers have basically stopped actively leaving the warehouse, and order resumption matches terminal market demand. Judging from the company's production capacity situation, the company's profitability may have increased due to the commissioning of the Southeast Asian manufacturing base and the continuous increase in the company's revenue scale.
The power tool business continues to expand. It received an order from a major US retail company. On May 9, 2024, the company issued the “Notice Concerning the Company Obtaining Customer's Power Tool Purchase Confirmation”, announcing that it has obtained purchase confirmation from a major US retail company (the company's top five customers). The target of this procurement is a 20V cordless lithium battery power tool series and related spare parts. The scope of procurement is the sales and service of all of this series of power tools and spare parts products for the next three years at thousands of stores in North America. The estimated order amount is no less than 30 million US dollars per year, exceeding 10% of the company's 2023 power tool product revenue. Products are expected to begin delivery to customers at 24H2, with confirmed revenue of no more than $40 million in 2024.
Existing home sales in the US can be expected to recover, and tool demand is expected to benefit
According to the National Association of Realtors, in Q1 2024, the sales volume of existing homes in the US after seasonal adjustment was 12.6 million units, -2.7% YoY; +8.25% month-on-month; in April 2024, the sales volume of existing homes in the US was 4.14 million units, -1.90% YoY and -1.90% YoY; in May 2024, the sales volume of existing homes in the US after seasonal adjustment was 4.11 million units, -2.84% YoY and -0.72% YoY. In anticipation of interest rate cuts, existing home sales in the US are expected to recover, and demand for tools is expected to benefit.
Risk warning: North American real estate sentiment falls short of expectations; risk of exchange rate fluctuations; trade friction intensifies; overseas inflation exceeds expectations.