投资建议：给 予“增持”评级，目标价9.57元。公司随历史包袱逐步卸下，利润实现连续5 年正增，我们预计治理改善、经营提效等因素仍将继续助推公司盈利增长，相对同业继续占优。预测2024-2026 年营业收入为72.3/76.7/80.9 亿元，同比+1.6%/6.0%/5.5%；归母净利润分别为22.7/24.8/27.6 亿元，同比+5.4 %/9.5%/11.0%，对应EPS 为0.28/0.30/0.33 元，BPS 为5.75/6.03/6.34 元。我们谨慎地选取 PB 估值法的估值结果，给予公司目标价9.57 元，给予“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company is a large and medium-sized brokerage firm with wealth management as its core. As historical burdens are lifted one after another, fundamentals have entered an upward channel, and it is expected that future profitability will continue to dominate compared to peers.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Give an “gain” rating, with a target price of 9.57 yuan. The company gradually lifted its historical burden, and profits have been increasing for 5 consecutive years. We expect that factors such as improved governance and operational efficiency will continue to drive the company's profit growth and continue to have an advantage over peers. The forecast revenue for 2024-2026 is 72.3/76.7/8.09 billion yuan, +1.6%/6.0%/5.5%; net profit to mother is 22.7/24.8/2.76 billion yuan, +5.4%/9.5%/11.0% year on year, corresponding EPS is 0.28/0.30/0.33 yuan, and BPS is 5.75/6.03/6.34 yuan. We carefully selected the valuation results of the PB valuation method, gave the company a target price of 9.57 yuan, and gave it an “gain” rating.
The burdens of history have been cleared one after another, and fundamentals have entered an upward channel. 1) The company's revenue structure is mainly based on wealth management and investment business. Profit changes over the past few years, and the asset-heavy business, especially the investment business, contributed to the main increase in performance; 2) The reason behind this is that in the past, the company was dragged down by factors such as shareholder disputes and controlling shareholder restructuring, and debt financing stagnated. With the shareholder structure clarified and management established, corporate governance got back on track, and debt financing restrictions faced by the company were liberalized. Since resuming the issuance of securities corporate bonds in 2022, the company has gradually recovered from 3.4x at the end of '21 to 4.3x in 24Q1. Looking ahead, it is expected that factors such as the implementation of historical matters such as Credit Suisse Securities (China) equity concessions and the improvement of operating efficiency under the power of Ping An Group will continue to drive the company's performance beyond its peers and move forward lightly.
The company's strategy is centered on wealth management, focusing on progress in resolving competition issues with Ping An Securities. 1) The company's comprehensive strength is at around the 15th place in the industry. Unlike other large and medium-sized brokerage firms, the company's strategy is based on wealth management and strives to become a large-scale comprehensive brokerage firm with distinctive wealth management characteristics and high-quality development; 2) Wealth management is the company's characteristic and advantage. The company's wealth management revenue has long ranked around 12th in the industry, ranking 2nd in the industry in terms of number of outlets; 3) The current major conflicts are gradually turning into progress in resolving competition issues in the industry. Ping An of China also holds Ping An Securities and Fangzheng Securities. It is necessary to resolve competition issues in the industry within 5 years and keep an eye on subsequent developments.
Catalysts: Profit release; new developments in resolving competitive issues with Ping An Securities peers.
Risk warning: The equity market fluctuates greatly; there is uncertainty about resolving competition issues with Ping An Securities peers.