Zhitong Finance learned from Guoyuan Securities' research report that as of the close on June 26, 2024, excluding negative values, the P/E ratio of the Computer (SW) Index was 34.75 times, significantly lower than the beginning of the year. From the perspective of technological development, the domestic and foreign AI large model capabilities are continuously iteratively updated, and the software and hardware supporting facilities are gradually improved, opening up the AI application space on the end side of mobile phones, PCs and other devices. From a policy perspective, quantum technology was mentioned twice in this year's government work report, and the low-altitude economic industry planning is accelerating landing, with many investment opportunities in the sector. The technology and growth attributes of the computer industry give it a high valuation premium. From historical data, the valuation level of the computer sector is currently in a reasonable range and has good long-term investment value. Product structure, products with operating income of 10-30 billion yuan respectively were 401/1288/60 million yuan.
Accelerated innovation in the AI industry, rapid landing of smart terminals, and broad future growth prospects.
The rapid development of AI large models has promoted the explosion of generative AI applications. The AI PC is a comprehensive combination of AI large models, software applications and hardware facilities. It applies the powerful data processing capabilities of cloud-based large models to various local application scenarios of PC through collaboration between the cloud-based and local terminals. The combination of cloud-based and local terminals will enhance the stability of cloud-based large models during application, achieve efficient human-computer interaction through input components of local terminals, and improve personal privacy and data security through data storage and data protection protocols of local terminals. After embedding the large model in the local terminal, the AI PC can assist individuals in completing a series of daily work, such as writing texts, conceiving articles, meeting records, and making Excel spreadsheets. According to Canalys' data, the global shipments of AI PCs will reach 48 million units in 2024, accounting for 18% of the total shipments of personal PCs; by 2025, the shipments of AI PCs will exceed 100 million units, accounting for 40% of the total shipments of PCs; by 2028, the shipments of AI PCs will reach 205 million units, with a CAGR of 44% from 2024 to 2028.
After embedding the large model in the local terminal, the AI PC can assist individuals in completing a series of daily work, such as writing texts, conceiving articles, meeting records, and making Excel spreadsheets. According to Canalys' data, the global shipments of AI PCs will reach 48 million units in 2024, accounting for 18% of the total shipments of personal PCs; by 2025, the shipments of AI PCs will exceed 100 million units, accounting for 40% of the total shipments of PCs; by 2028, the shipments of AI PCs will reach 205 million units, with a CAGR of 44% from 2024 to 2028.
Accelerate the development of new production forces. Policy supports the rapid growth of emerging tracks.
With the continuous maturity of quantum technology, the fields of quantum communication, quantum computing, quantum precision measurement, among others are developing rapidly. The government work report in 2024 mentioned: "Formulating future industrial development plans and opening up new tracks such as quantum technology and life sciences". Currently, Hefei's quantum industry is opening up a new track for future industrial development and accelerating the formation of new production forces.
According to the "Research Report on the Development of China's Low-altitude Economy (2024)" published by CCID Consulting, the low-altitude economy model in China reached 505.95 billion yuan in 2023 and is expected to reach 1,064.46 billion yuan by 2026. With the development of electronic information technology and the widespread use of computers in on-board and air traffic control ground equipment, coupled with the maturity of satellite communication and positioning technology, it is possible to achieve management of air traffic over a wide range. The construction of the low-altitude airspace management system is in high demand. The integration of cars, roads, and cloud is a smart upgrade of the current road traffic system. In January 2024, five ministries and commissions issued a notice on "Car-Road-Cloud Integration" pilot work for intelligent networked vehicles, and various regions have planned relevant pilot projects overall, with huge potential.
Risk warning
The landing pace of AI technology in PCs and other fields is lower than expected; the industrialization of quantum technology is progressing slower than expected; the landing progress of car-road-cloud integration industry is lower than expected; the landing progress of low-altitude economy industry is lower than expected; the risk of intensified industry competition; the risk of macroeconomic environmental changes.