According to the latest data from multiple research institutions, the sales performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises increased by more than 30% month-on-month in June, of which nearly 60% achieved a single-month performance increase on a month-on-month basis, and nearly 30% achieved a single-month performance increase on a year-on-year basis. China Overseas Land & Investment achieved the highest single-month sales revenue among the top 100 real estate enterprises, reaching a new high in nearly a year. From January to June, the year-on-year decline in the sales performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises has been narrowing for four consecutive months.
Overall, the contribution rate of first-tier cities' sales performance continued to increase in the first half of the year, with Shanghai having the highest contribution rate.
Industry insiders believe that in the third quarter, as the package of real estate policies is implemented to boost market confidence, market activity will rebound and real estate sales will continue to improve.
There is a significant increase in month-on-month sales performance growth.
According to data from the CRIC Research Center, in June, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 438.93 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 36.3%, but a year-on-year decrease of 16.7%.
In terms of business performance, nearly 60% of the top 100 real estate enterprises achieved a single-month performance increase on a month-on-month basis in June, and nearly 30% achieved a single-month performance increase on a year-on-year basis. China Overseas Land & Investment achieved an overall sales amount of 46.6 billion yuan, ranking first in single-month sales revenue among the top 100 real estate enterprises and reaching a new high in nearly a year. In addition, Poly Developments and Holdings Group, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group, China Jinmao, Yuexiu Property, China Railway Construction Corporation, and Poly Real Estate all achieved a year-on-year increase in single-month performance.
According to data from the China Index Academy, from January to June, the sales volume of the top 100 real estate companies was 2.084 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.6%, a reduction of 3.8 percentage points from the previous month, and a continuous narrowing for four consecutive months.
Data from the China Index Academy also shows that in the first half of the year, the number of companies with sales of over 50 billion yuan has decreased. Specifically, there were 6 companies in the 100-billion-yuan and above camp, a decrease of 1 from the same period last year, with an average sales amount of 133.08 billion yuan. There were 4 companies in the second camp (50 billion to 100 billion yuan), a decrease of 6 from the same period last year, with an average sales amount of 57.78 billion yuan. There were 6 companies in the third camp (30 billion to 50 billion yuan), a decrease of 10 from the same period last year, with an average sales amount of 38.72 billion yuan. There were 28 companies in the fourth camp (10 billion to 30 billion yuan), a decrease of 17 from the same period last year, with an average sales amount of 16.32 billion yuan.
The China Index Academy believes that in the third quarter of 2024, as the package of real estate policies is implemented to boost market confidence, market activity will rebound and real estate sales will improve.
The contribution rate of first-tier cities' sales performance continued to increase.
Regarding the month-on-month sales growth of the top 100 real estate companies in June, the CRIC Research Center believes that this is mainly due to the year-end rush of real estate companies and the impact of new policies in core first- and second-tier cities. Supply and demand have both increased month-on-month, and the weak recovery trend has continued: In June, the supply and turnover of the top 30 cities increased by 7% and 2% month-on-month, respectively, which is higher than the average monthly growth rate in the first quarter. Among them, the month-on-month increase in the four first-tier cities was 17%, showing significant resilience compared with second- and third-tier cities.
According to the CRIC Research Center, since the end of April, the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have all partially lifted their real estate regulations, stimulating a wave of stock customers to enter the market, especially in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, where the month-on-month increase in turnover was all over 30% and the June turnover was significantly better than the average monthly turnover in the first quarter. Taking Shanghai as an example, after the "5.27" new real estate policy was implemented, the heat of the real estate market was significantly increased, and the fact that three new real estate projects triggered the points system showed a steady rebound in project visits and subscriptions, which has been reflected at the turnover end.
Overall, the contribution rate of first-tier cities' sales performance continued to increase in the first half of the year. According to data from the China Index Academy, in the first half of the year, 54% of the sales revenue of the top 20 representative real estate companies came from second-tier cities, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9 percentage points, and sales contribution rate is still dominant. The contribution rate of first-tier cities' sales performance increased by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year to 30.4%, the only city level with an increasing proportion. From an enterprise perspective, China State Construction Engineering Corporation Third Engineering Bureau Group, Yuexiu Property, and China Overseas Land & Investment have all focused on the first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, with first-tier city sales contribution rates all above 50%.
Data from the China Index Academy also shows that Shanghai has the highest sales contribution rate, with sales contribution rates of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Xi'an increasing rapidly. In the first half of the year, the top 20 representative real estate companies' top three cities by sales revenue were Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou, with sales contribution rates of 12.8%, 9.7%, and 8%, respectively. The sales contribution rate of Shanghai has continued to increase over the same period in 2023, with the highest increase of 2 percentage points among the top 10 cities. Hangzhou has risen from the third in the same period in 2023 to the second, with a 1.6 percentage point increase in sales contribution rate, second only to Shanghai. Xi'an's sales contribution rate increased by 1.4 percentage points, entering the top 10 cities in terms of sales revenue of representative enterprises.
It is expected that the upward trend will continue in July.
Regarding the market situation in the first half of the year, the CRIC Research Center believes that although there have been significant policy optimizations and loosening of real estate regulatory policies in core first- and second-tier cities since 2024, enterprise sales in the first half of the year continued to adjust and remain at a low level, and market confidence and expectations will still take some time to recover.
Looking ahead to July, Ke Research Center believes that benefiting from the continuous bullish policies from the central to local governments since May and currently in the stock demand release cycle, coupled with the current supply and transaction basic also fell to a phase low, the later stage is likely to continue to stabilize, and it will be flat in June; based on July last year as the low point of the year, the expected month-on-month decline in July will also be significantly narrowed.
China Index Academy also believes that overall, the landing of a package of real estate policies on May 17th had a good boosting effect on market confidence, and the short-term activity of core first- and second-tier cities is expected to continue for a period of time, thereby bringing certain support to the national market. However, the overall pace of market repair still depends on the improvement of residents' income expectations, and the national new housing market may still be in the bottom-building stage in the short term. In terms of destocking, various places may accelerate the detailed implementation of policies such as local state-owned enterprises receiving unsold new houses, purchasing inventory land, etc., to help real estate companies speed up the recovery of funds and help resolve industry risks. It is expected that with the optimization of supply and demand on both sides, the real estate market will accelerate its stabilization and recovery, and real estate sales will improve.
Edited by Jeffrey