According to the Cnjournals APP, CITIC Securities released a research report stating that, for the first time, it covered CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (00317) and gave it a "buy-A" rating. It is expected to achieve revenue of 17.8/20.5/24.4 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5%/14.9%/19.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent is expected to be 0.5/1.09/1.82 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 948%/116%/67.4%. CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering H shares have valuation advantages, with a target price of HKD 19.92.

The report states that the boom in the shipbuilding cycle is characterized by a rise in both quantity and price, and shipbuilding enterprises enjoy a triple dividend of "capacity, price, and cost". On the supply side, the shipbuilding industry has gone through the supply-side clearing process for many years since the financial crisis in 2008, and the global shipyard has decreased by more than half since the peak in 2009. On the demand side, ships built since the 2000s will accelerate into the aging stage from the 2020s, and with the catalysis of dynagreen environmental protection group, the shipbuilding cycle of civil ships will begin. The shipyard supply is tight while the demand for shipbuilding is booming. In a seller's market, new ship orders are concentrated in the top-tier, and shipbuilding companies have a full order backlog and enjoy "capacity dividends". On the price side, the global new ship price index has been consistently high, and shipbuilding companies have a higher bargaining power and enjoy a "price dividend" of "supply-demand gap". On the cost side, the price of steel, which is greatly affected by raw materials, has fallen from a historical central level of over 7,000 yuan/ton when it was at its high point in 2021 to more than 4,000 yuan/ton, and the scissors difference between quantity-price and cost enjoys a "profit dividend". By 2023, the gross margin of the leading domestic private shipbuilder, YZJ Shipbldg Sgd's shipbuilding business has reached 22%, an increase of +9pcts year-on-year, and it is expected that domestic listed shipbuilding companies will also enter the turning point of profit growth in 2024.

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