As July approaches, global new energy vehicle leader Tesla is also about to release Q2 delivery data. Although FactSet data shows that the market expects a 6.5% YoY decrease in Tesla's Q2 sales volume to 436,000 units, it has not stopped the company's stock price from rising strongly for four trading days, with an increase of more than 8%, reaching the $200 mark again.

Detailed sales data for Tesla should be disclosed on its official IR website. However, this morning's weibo post seems to subtly reveal some sales information. In the weibo post regarding the '5-year 0 interest' car purchase policy, Tesla stated that 'June sales reached a new high', and then possibly realized a mistake and edited and deleted the related expression. We do not know how much this will boost Q2 sales, but at least we know that June's sales will not be very pessimistic.

Tesla rebounded more than 40% from its low point.

In the previous Q1, Tesla delivered 386,810 vehicles, the first year-on-year decline since the pandemic, which was far lower than the analyst's expected 449,080 vehicles. This also led to Tesla's stock price being in a downward trend for a long time and hitting a low of $138.8 at one point.

However, with the release of Q1 results on April 24 and Musk's reaffirmation of the importance of FSD and acceleration of the launch of affordable models, Tesla has experienced a strong rebound. As of the close of June 28th, Tesla has rebounded by more than 40% over a period of over two months. Meanwhile, as a new force in the auto industry, NIO Inc recorded only a 15% increase, Xiaopeng recorded a 12% increase, and Li Auto Inc even fell by more than 28% during the same period.

The bulls and bears on Wall Street are debating.

Q2 sales are undecided, and the target price of Tesla by major Wall Street banks also shows differences. Among them, the difference in target price between JP Morgan is as high as nearly $200. The target price of the largest bull, JP Morgan, points to $310, which means that there is more than 50% upside for Tesla.

Morgan Stanley: Tesla is the key "Ace" in the next round of AI investment.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas believes that AI data centers are being built all over the United States, and these data centers will become "power monsters," bringing huge loads to the U.S. power grid. Jonas said that by 2030, the power consumption of U.S. data centers may be equivalent to the power consumption of 150 million electric vehicles. In other words, from 2023 to 2027, the expected growth of electrical utilities in U.S. data centers is equivalent to an increase of 59 million electric vehicles on U.S. roads, which means an increase of 21% in the total number of vehicles.

Jonas firmly believes in Tesla's energy business and believes that the power demand brought by the AI ​​boom will make Tesla a key participant in the US energy market.

Morgan Stanley predicts that Tesla's energy business will be expected to increase its after-tax net operating profit by $3.95 billion by 2030, with an EPS of more than $1. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley values Tesla's energy business at $130 billion. At the same time, Morgan Stanley raised Tesla's target price to $310 and gave it an "overweight" rating. This means that there is more than 50% upside.

Stifel: The long-term profit forecast has bottomed out, and the core technological advantages are obvious.

Last week, Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro also released a bullish report, which covered Tesla for the first time and gave a buy rating with a target price of $265, meaning that the stock still has about 35% upside potential. Gengaro believes that although electric vehicle sales have slowed in recent times, Tesla's development momentum will gradually improve as the supercharging network expands, affordable car models are launched, and overall technology improves.

From the perspective of financial and profit indicators, Tesla's long-term profit expectations have bottomed out. Gengaro pointed out that over the past 12 months, the consensus expectations for Tesla's EBITDA in 2024 have dropped by 41%, and those for EBIT have dropped by 46%. As "negative expectations are gradually revised", the stock price may be boosted to some extent.

Gengaro is particularly bullish on Tesla's core technological superiority, believing that the company has no competitors in the field of electric vehicles:

"Traditional automakers do not have the technological knowledge needed for electric vehicles, and they are far behind in this electrification game."

"And they don't have a CEO like Musk."

J.P. Morgan: Tesla's self-driving taxi business prospects are uncertain.

In contrast to JP Morgan's optimistic attitude, small Morgan analysts such as Ryan Brinkman believe that Tesla's autonomous taxi business may take many years to generate substantial revenue.

Brinkman mentioned that Tesla stated that its next wave of growth will be led by low-cost models expected to be launched by 2025, which use existing platforms and assembly lines rather than the previously planned next-generation platform.

Brinkman believes that this means that the short-term reduction in sales costs will be small. Morgan Stanley's rating on Tesla's stock is "sell", with a target of $115.

Mooers,

What do you think of Tesla's Q2 sales?

Do you think tesla's stock price can continue to be strong?

What is your target price for tesla?

Let's discuss in the comments section!

Editor/Lambor