FUTU Morning Post

Futu Morning News | Key events in U.S. stocks! Russell Index Annual Rebalancing Effective on Monday; First Debate a "Performance Disaster," U.S. Legislators Call for Biden's Impeachment.

热点要闻

美联储票委评最新通胀数据：货币政策正在起作用，现在判断降息时机还太早

上周五公布的数据显示，美国5月PCE价格指数环比持平，同比涨幅录得2.6%，均与市场预期一致；剔除食品和能源等波动较大因素后，美国5月核心PCE价格指数环比增长0.1%，同比上涨2.6%，均符合市场预期。旧金山联储主席戴利表示：“我们的经济增长在放缓，支出在放缓，劳动力市场在放缓，通胀在下降，这正是货币政策的作用。”戴利指出，美联储将继续依据经济数据做出决定，如果通胀下降速度低于预期，决策者将不得不在更长的时间内维持高利率。

大型科技公司主导地位凸显，美股“罗素指数年度再平衡”周一生效

6月28日周五，美股罗素系列指数（罗素1000、罗素2000和罗素3000等）迎来重磅“年度再平衡”。重组后，罗素1000指数中前十大公司的总权重将达到34.3%，为40年来最高水平。这一数字比1984年指数成立时高出近20个百分点。微软将重新成为指数中市值最大的公司，取代苹果的位置。英伟达公司则超越亚马逊，跃升至第三位。本周一，重组会正式生效。

美联储前“三把手”：美联储最终会降息，但会比市场预期更晚，关注两个关键指标

美银美林发布研报，整理了纽约联邦储备银行前任行长兼首席执行官杜德利在2024年博鳌亚洲论坛上的发言。总体而言，杜德利认为，美国经济增长将逐步放缓，利率水平将更长时间维持高位，中性利率水平可能上行至3.6%，后续主要关注失业率和核心服务通胀两个关键指标。

小摩、高盛唱空美股

高盛的Scott Rubner表示，虽然历史上7月上半月标普500指数通常表现强劲，但8月流动性减少、“返校季”因素以及大选前的“回调”走势可能推低美股。他表示：“从现在到7月17日，我们处于融涨行情的最后阶段，我会寻求在7月4日之后削减敞口。”他预计股市将出现“大选前回调”，因为基金经理将被迫卖出多头头寸并对冲大选风险。摩根大通的Marko Kolanovic称，在经济放缓、盈利下修等不利因素影响下，标普500指数到年底前将跌至4200点，较周四收盘点位下跌约23%。

首场辩论“表现灾难”，美议员呼吁罢免拜登

美国共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯表示，美国总统拜登在总统选举辩论中说话不连贯，且无法清楚地阐述自己的政策，因此不适合继续担任美国领导人。拜登内阁应考虑援引第25条修正案罢免拜登，投票将权力和职权移交给副总统。此外，共和党人、众议院议长迈克·约翰逊也表示，拜登不仅应该退出总统竞选，而且应该立即被免职，因为拜登已经无法正常履职。面对退选的呼声，拜登表示，他仍将继续竞选连任。

持平上月！中国六月官方制造业PMI为49.5，价格指数有所回落

6月30日周日，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国6月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%，与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定。非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，高于临界点，非制造业继续保持扩张。综合PMI产出指数为50.5%，比上月下降0.5个百分点，高于临界点。6月国内制造业景气度与上月持平，服务业景气小幅回落，企业生产经营活动总体保持扩张，但扩张步伐有所放缓。

美股复盘

美股三大指数集体收跌，耐克绩后暴跌近20%

美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.12%，纳指跌0.71%，标普500指数跌0.4%。

热门科技股多数下跌，亚马逊、Meta跌超2%，苹果、谷歌、微软跌超1%。

鞋服品牌、电脑硬件、太阳能板块跌幅居前，鞋服巨头耐克跌近20%，第一太阳能跌超9%，超微电脑跌近8%；

热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.02%，上半年累计下跌11.34%。蔚来跌超5%，小鹏汽车跌超4%，哔哩哔哩跌超3%。

美股半年收官：上半年涨14%，其中60%来自五大科技股，英伟达一家贡献超三成

截至2024年6月28日收盘，标普500指数上半年累计上涨14.48%，略低于2023年上半年的表现，但仍然创下自千禧年互联网泡沫以来最强劲的半年度表现之一。上半年，美股近60%的涨幅由仅五家科技巨头贡献——$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$、$微软 (MSFT.US)$、$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$、$Meta Platforms (META.US)$和$苹果 (AAPL.US)$，其中仅英伟达一家的涨幅贡献就高达31%。二季度，英伟达、苹果和微软三家公司贡献了超过90%的大盘涨幅。

季度营收不及预期，耐克大跌近20%，创2001年以来最大盘中跌幅

$耐克 (NKE.US)$大跌近20%报75.37美元，创2001年以来最大盘中跌幅。耐克公布，截至5月31日止第四季，收入126.1亿美元，同比跌2%，低于预期的128.4亿美元；净利润15亿美元，同比升45.6%；每股经调整盈利录得1.01美元，预期0.83美元。耐克2024年度收入为513.6亿美元，无变动，是14年以来最差表现。集团表示，2025年度前景存在挑战，有需要调低原先预测，但未有公布具体数字。

欧盟加大对AI巨头审查，OpenAI、微软与谷歌在列

当地时间6月28日，欧盟反垄断机构称，将对微软与OpenAI的合作以及谷歌与三星在人工智能领域的交易寻求更多监管审查。欧盟的这些举措凸显了全球监管机构对大型科技公司利用其在新技术领域的主导地位感到不安。当天，微软股价跌超1%，谷歌跌近2%。

美国大型银行纷纷宣布提高派息，此前均通过了美联储压力测试

$摩根大通 (JPM.US)$和$美国银行 (BAC.US)$等大行纷纷宣布上调派息。就在两天前，监管机构的评估结果显示，31家参加测试的银行全都能保持足够的资本，经受住经济衰退情景假设的考验。其他提高派息的银行还包括花旗集团、富国银行和摩根士丹利。摩根大通和摩根士丹利还批准了数百亿美元的股票回购计划。

巴菲特：我去世后，剩余财富将几乎全部交给子女管理的慈善信托

美国媒体刊发知名投资人沃伦·巴菲特的专访文章。巴菲特透露，在最新的安排中，他去世后所有剩余的财富将捐赠给一个新设立的慈善信托基金，由他的女儿苏珊·巴菲特，两个儿子霍华德·巴菲特和彼得·巴菲特共同监督管理。三人必须一致决定这个基金会里的钱该如何使用。$伯克希尔-A (BRK.A.US)$称，巴菲特将把所持有的8674股A类股票转换为约1300万股B类股票，捐赠给比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会、苏珊·汤普森·巴菲特基金会、舍伍德基金会、霍华德·巴菲特基金会和NoVo基金会，相关股票总价值数十亿美元。

波音或面临欺诈指控，罚款将达近5亿美元

知情人士称，美国司法部认定波$波音 (BA.US)$违反此前达成的延期起诉协议，将以刑事欺诈罪起诉波音公司，敦促其认罪并接受罚款。据知情人士透露，司法部在周日的一次会议上告诉坠机事故受害者家属及其律师，波音公司必须在本周末之前决定是否对这项指控认罪。在此前已经支付2.436亿美元罚款的基础上，波音将需要再支付2.436亿美元的刑事罚款，罚款总额接近5亿美元。此外，波音还必须聘请一名为期三年的企业监督员。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

北水买入中移动超12亿港元、加仓工行、建行各近5亿港元

6月28日（周五），南下资金净买入港股36.62亿港元。

$中国移动 (00941.HK)$、$工商银行 (01398.HK)$、$建设银行 (00939.HK)$分别获净买入12.62亿港元、4.76亿港元、4.74亿港元；$盈富基金 (02800.HK)$、$中国神华 (01088.HK)$、$美团-W (03690.HK)$分别遭净卖出5.69亿港元、1.09亿港元、5,992万港元。

今日关注

关键词：中国6月财新制造业PMI、美国6月标普全球制造业PMI终值、美国6月ISM制造业PMI、香港休市一日

周一，经济数据方面，中国6月财新制造业PMI、美国6月标普全球制造业PMI终值、美国6月ISM制造业PMI等重磅经济数据即将公布。

财经事件方面，因香港特别行政区成立纪念日，港股休市一日。

牛牛晨读：

与众人反向而行需要勇气。事实是，这世界上从不曾有哪个人是只靠“从众”而成功的。
——吉姆·罗杰斯

编辑/new

Hot news

Fed voting member evaluates latest inflation data: monetary policy is taking effect, it is still too early to determine the timing of interest rate cuts.

According to data released on Friday, the U.S. May PCE price index was flat month-on-month and rose 2.6% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations; after excluding volatile factors such as food and energy, the U.S. core PCE price index for May rose 0.1% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations. San Francisco Fed President Daly said, 'Our economic growth is slowing, spending is slowing, the labor market is slowing, and inflation is falling, which is the role of monetary policy.' Daly pointed out that the Fed will continue to make decisions based on economic data, and if the inflation decline is lower than expected, policymakers will have to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time.

Large technology companies dominate, Russell's annual index reconstitution comes into effect on Monday.

On Friday, June 28th, the Russell series of indexes (Russell 1000, Russell 2000, Russell 3000, etc.) welcomed the heavyweight 'annual reconstitution'. After the restructuring, the total weight of the top ten companies in the Russell 1000 Index will reach 34.3%, the highest level in 40 years. This is nearly 20 percentage points higher than the index's inception in 1984. Microsoft will become the company with the largest market capitalization in the index again, replacing Apple. Nvidia surpassed Amazon and rose to third place. The restructuring meeting will take effect on Monday this week.

The former 'top three' of the Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve will eventually cut interest rates, but later than the market expects, focusing on two key indicators.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch released a research report summarizing the speech of former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Dudley at the Boao Forum for Asia in 2024. Overall, Dudley believes that U.S. economic growth will gradually slow, and interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time. The neutral interest rate level may rise to 3.6%, and subsequent major indicators will focus on the unemployment rate and core service inflation.

JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs short the U.S. stock market.

Scott Rubner of Goldman Sachs said that although the S&P 500 index usually performs strongly in the first half of July, the reduction of liquidity in August, the 'back to school' factor, and the 'retreat' trend before the election may push down the U.S. stock market. He said: 'From now until July 17th, we are in the final stage of the liquidity-driven rally, and I will seek to reduce exposure after July 4th.' He expects the stock market to experience a 'pre-election pullback' because fund managers will be forced to sell long positions and hedge election risks. JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said that under the influence of unfavorable factors such as economic slowdown and profit downgrade, the S&P 500 index is expected to fall to 4,200 points by the end of the year, a decrease of about 23% from Thursday's closing price.

The first debate was a 'disaster', US lawmakers called for Biden's impeachment.

The three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively, and Nike fell nearly 20% after the earnings report.

China's official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.5, the same as last month, and the price index fell slightly.

On Sunday, June 30th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for June was 49.5%, unchanged from last month, and the manufacturing prosperity remained stable. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, higher than the critical point, and the non-manufacturing industry continued to expand. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, higher than the critical point. In June, the manufacturing prosperity in China was stable compared with last month, and the prosperity of the service industry slightly declined. The overall production and operation activities of enterprises continued to expand, but the expansion pace slowed down.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

The three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively, Nike plummeted nearly 20% after the earnings report.

The three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively, with the Dow Jones falling 0.12%, the Nasdaq falling 0.71%, and the S&P 500 index falling 0.4%.

Most popular technology stocks fell, with Amazon and Meta falling more than 2%, and Apple, Google, and Microsoft falling more than 1%.

The shoe and clothing brands, computer hardware, and solar panel sectors fell the most, with Nike, the clothing giant, falling nearly 20%, First Solar falling more than 9%, and Super Micro Computer falling nearly 8%.

China concept stocks generally fell, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 1.02%, accumulating an 11.34% decline in the first half of the year. NIO fell more than 5%, XPeng fell more than 4%, and Bilibili fell more than 3%.

US stocks ended the first half of the year with a 14% increase, of which 60% came from the top five technology stocks. Nvidia alone contributed more than 30%.

As of the close of June 28, 2024, the S&P 500 Index had risen 14.48% in the first half of the year, slightly lower than its performance in the first half of 2023, but still one of the strongest half-yearly performances since the millennium internet bubble. In the first half of the year, nearly 60% of the gains of the U.S. stock market were contributed by only five technology giants --$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$, $Amazon (AMZN.US)$, $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ and $Apple (AAPL.US)$, with NVIDIA alone contributing 31% of the gains. In the second quarter, NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft contributed more than 90% of the gains in the large cap.

Nike fell nearly 20% as quarterly revenue misses expectations, marking its biggest intraday drop since 2001.

$Nike (NKE.US)$Nike fell nearly 20% to $75.37, marking its biggest intraday drop since 2001. Nike announced that its revenue for the fourth quarter ended May 31 was $12.61 billion, down 2% year-on-year and below expectations of $12.84 billion, with net income of $1.5 billion, up 45.6% year-on-year and adjusted earnings per share of $1.01, beating the estimated $0.83. Nike's revenue for the fiscal year 2024 remains at $51.36 billion, the worst performance since 2014. The group said the outlook for fiscal year 2025 is challenging and that it needs to adjust its original forecast, but has not disclosed specific figures.

EU tightens scrutiny over AI giants, including OpenAI, Microsoft and Google.

On June 28 local time, the EU antitrust agency announced that it will seek further regulatory scrutiny of Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI and Google's AI-related transactions with Samsung. The EU's actions highlight the concerns of global regulators about large technology companies leveraging their dominance in new technology fields. On the same day, Microsoft's stock fell more than 1%, and Google's stock fell nearly 2%.

Large U.S. banks have announced an increase in dividends after passing the Federal Reserve's stress tests.

$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ and $Bank of America (BAC.US)$Large banks such as Wells Fargo & Co. have announced an increase in dividends. Just two days ago, regulator evaluations showed that all 31 banks participating in the test could maintain sufficient capital and withstand the hypothetical recession scenario. Other banks that increased their dividends include Citigroup, Wells Fargo & Co., and Morgan Stanley. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have also approved share buyback plans worth billions of dollars.

Buffett: Most of my wealth will be managed by a charitable trust run by my children after I die.

American media published an interview with renowned investor Warren Buffett. Buffett revealed that in his latest arrangement, all of his remaining wealth after his death will be donated to a newly established charitable trust fund, which will be overseen by his daughter Susan Buffett, his two sons Howard Buffett and Peter Buffett. The three must agree on how the money in the foundation will be used.$Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$Buffett said he will convert his 8,674 Class A shares into approximately 13 million Class B shares and donate them to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, Sherwood Foundation, Howard G. Buffett Foundation, and the NoVo Foundation, with the total value of the relevant stocks running into billions of dollars.

Boeing may face fraud charges with fines of nearly $500 million.

Sources said the U.S. Department of Justice has determined that Boeing violated the earlier deferred prosecution agreement and will charge Boeing with criminal fraud and urge it to plead guilty and accept a fine. According to sources, the Department of Justice told crash victims and their lawyers on Sunday that Boeing must decide whether to plead guilty to the charges by the end of this weekend. In addition to the $243.6 million fine already paid, Boeing will need to pay a criminal fine of $243.6 million, bringing the total fine to nearly $500 million. In addition, Boeing must hire a corporate supervisor for three years.$Boeing (BA.US)$Northern funds bought China Mobile for more than HKD 1.2 billion and increased their holdings in ICBC and CCB for nearly HKD 500 million each.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

On Friday, June 28, Southbound funds net bought HKD 3.662 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

Net purchases of China Mobile exceeded HKD 1.262 billion, while net purchases of ICBC and CCB were nearly HKD 476 million and HKD 59.92 million, respectively.

$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$, $ICBC (01398.HK)$, $CCB (00939.HK)$They were net sellers of HKD 569 million, HKD 109 million, and HKD 59.92 million, respectively.$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$, $CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK)$, $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$They were respectively net sold HKD 569 million, HKD 109 million, and HKD 59.92 million.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI, S&P Global manufacturing PMI for June, ISM manufacturing PMI for June, Hong Kong closed on the same day.

On Monday, in terms of economic data, heavyweight economic data such as China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June, and ISM Manufacturing PMI for June in the United States will be released.

Regarding financial events, the Hong Kong stock market is closed for one day due to the establishment day of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

Futubull Morning News:

It takes courage to go against the crowd. In fact, no one in the world has ever succeeded by just following the crowd.
－Jim Rogers.

Editor/new

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