This week's important schedule overview

• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is about to appear and may provide new signals for monetary policy.

This week, both Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and FOMC Permanent Voting Member and New York Fed President Williams, two heavyweight Federal Reserve officials, will speak, and the Federal Reserve will also release minutes of the monetary policy meeting. Some new clues about monetary policy may be revealed, and investors should pay close attention.

A CITIC Securities research report said that the Federal Reserve maintained its neutral stance overall and expected Powell to "wait for more good inflation data" and suppress US demand and inflation.

• The market is awaiting non-farm payroll data in June, which may pave the way for the first rate cut in September.

In terms of economic data, the most concerned by investors is the non-farm payrolls data to be released on Friday, which will affect the Fed's rate cut path.

Against the background of May's non-farm data rising to 272,000, analysts predict that the number of new jobs in June will drop sharply to 180,000, and the June unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4%, with a slight decline in month-on-month wage growth rate to 0.3%. It is widely believed that any signs of a slowdown in the job market may increase the possibility of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates as early as September.

James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING Group, said in a report that the market currently believes that there is a 72% chance of a rate cut in September. If non-farm data slows down beyond expectations, it will help to consolidate this prospect.

Before that, the market will look for further clues about the health of the US job market from the JOLTS employment gaps on Tuesday, the ADP employment data for June in the US 'little non-farm, and initial jobless claims data on Wednesday.

• Two European elections will be the highlight.

The intense confrontation between Biden and Trump this week has made onlookers very satisfied and also caused some waves in the financial market, while Europe's political storm may cause huge waves.

The first round of voting in the French National Assembly elections will be held on June 30 and the second round on July 7. Recent polls have shown that the ultra-right-wing party, the National Union, leads other parties.

Britain will hold a general election on July 4th, and the election results may be announced on the morning of July 5th. It is expected that the opposition Labour Party will easily win a majority of seats. Considering that the election results do not look uncertain, and that the Labour Party does not have a large-scale government expenditure plan, the impact on the pound, British bonds, and the British stock market may be slightly positive, but the impact is limited.

• Market closed reminder

Hong Kong stocks will be closed on Monday (July 1st) for the establishment day of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and south-north trading will be closed.

Affected by the US Independence Day holiday, US stocks will be closed on July 4th local time, and will close half a day on July 3rd (ie, close from 01:00 on July 4th Beijing time).

Monday, July 1st

Keywords: China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI, S&P Global manufacturing PMI for June, ISM manufacturing PMI for June, Hong Kong closed on the same day.

On Monday, in terms of economic data, heavyweight economic data such as China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June, and ISM Manufacturing PMI for June in the United States will be released.

Regarding financial events, the Hong Kong stock market is closed for one day due to the establishment day of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

Tuesday, July 2nd

Keywords: USA May JOLTs job vacancies; speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Lagarde, and Brazilian Central Bank President Neto at the central bank forum held by the European Central Bank.

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, investors should pay attention to the U.S. May JOLTs job vacancies.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Lagarde, and Brazilian Central Bank President Neto made speeches at the central bank forum held by the European Central Bank.

Wednesday, July 3rd.

Keywords: China June Caixin Services PMI, US June ADP Employment, US Jobless Claims, US stock market early close.

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, investors can closely follow China's June Caixin Services PMI; in the United States, the June ADP Employment and US jobless claims data for the week ending June 29 are also worth paying attention to.

In terms of financial events, FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams made a speech at the central bank forum held by the European Central Bank; European Central Bank President Lagarde made a speech; in addition, due to the United States' Independence Day, the US stock market closes early at 01:00 Beijing time on July 4th.

Thursday, July 4th.

Keywords: FOMC released minutes of monetary policy meeting, US stock market closed.

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the US will release the weekly EIA natural gas inventories.

In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will both release minutes of their respective monetary policy meetings. In addition, the US stock market will be closed for one day due to American Independence Day.

Friday, July 5th.

Keywords: US June Unemployment Rate, US June Non-Farm Payrolls, New York Fed President Williams' speech

On Friday, in terms of economic data, the US June Unemployment Rate and June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls are coming.

In terms of financial events, New York Fed President Williams will give a speech.

Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!

Editor/Somer