Source: Chuan Yue Global Macro Author: Tao Chuan Zhao Honghe Wu Bin Zhang Xinnan If the June 28th debate took place in 2020, the White House might still not have changed hands. Overall, the content of the debate itself is no longer so important. What is more eye-catching is the age issue behind Biden's "disastrous" on-site performance - as the oldest president in US history (81 years old this year), can Biden still handle the job of president for the next four years? Market's answer is NO. From overseas perspective, based on real-time data, the famous website PredictIt calculates that after the debate, Biden's probability of winning the election dropped from 47% the previous day to 33%, the lowest in nearly a year, while Trump's chances of winning increased to 59%. So can it be assumed that Trump is a sure winner? We believe that there are still many variables in the US election this year, and the key lies in the fact that the timing of this year's first round of debates is much earlier than in previous years, before both parties have confirmed their candidates. Looking ahead, the Democratic Party's strategy may mainly have two paths: One is to continue to promote Biden's candidacy. The key is expectation difference. Whether intentional or unintentional, the first round of debate has lowered market expectations to the bottom, and then counterattacks in the second round of debate. This is similar to the 2016 presidential election, in which Trump turned the tide against Hillary Clinton in the third round of debates. Second, Biden may drop out and choose new candidates. The key is to select suitable candidates and unify the party's support and opinions in the short term. The sequence of Vice President Harris in this list is undoubtedly among the top. Based on this, the new candidate still has the possibility to turn the tide in the second round of debates in September. In terms of the content of the debate itself, both candidates were rather restrained. Trump was clearly more "mature and savvy", and both sides seemed to have a tacit understanding not to play the "China card" too much. Most of the content of this debate, both sides' policy positions, were actually already well known in the market before. A one-and-a-half-hour debate focused more on energy and on-the-spot response. In this regard, after the baptism of 2016 and 2020, Trump was clearly more calm and at ease, and did not mention China too much, possibly due to the fact that the two parties' attitudes towards China are not very different in the current environment. In other areas: On the economic front, Biden pointed out that the economy was in chaos when Trump stepped down, and that Trump’s proposed tariff increases pushed up prices. He emphasized his contribution to creating employment opportunities and promised to reduce inflation. Trump, on the other hand, criticized the inflation caused by Biden was "completely destroying us." Job growth is a result of the post-epidemic rebound. He himself saved the US steel industry through tariffs. On the abortion issue, Trump still supports returning abortion rights to the states, while Biden said he would veto national anti-abortion laws. Trump's position of "leaving it to each state to decide" is like saying that civil rights should be returned to each state. On immigration, Trump said that Biden's opening of the border has caused violent crime in the United States, and claimed to be the person with the "widest heart" on stage. Biden criticized Trump's immigration policy for causing family separation. On the geopolitical front, Biden expressed support for a Gaza ceasefire, while Trump accused Biden of triggering the geopolitical conflict. On a personal level, in terms of Trump's crimes, Trump said he "did nothing wrong" but was convicted of being "manipulated," and insisted that there was fraud in the 2020 election. Biden said Trump was a "complainer" who couldn't accept failure. But it must be admitted that this debate is a real blow to Biden's candidacy, especially among swing voters. Recently, due to reasons such as reduced inflation and easing of geopolitical conflicts, Biden's approval rating has been catching up with Trump, especially in swing states where the gap has narrowed. However, in this debate, Biden's old age was exposed, and Trump has disciplined and sharply criticized Biden's economic and immigration policies, accusing him of causing violent crime in the United States and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Looking at the basic situation, black and Latin American, young people, and high-income groups are more supportive of Biden, while whites, middle-aged and elderly groups, and low-income groups tend to support Trump. After this debate, Biden may face the loss of support among some black people, high-income groups, and young people. Although his abortion policy is more in line with women's interests, the priority of the abortion issue may be weaken when women consider voting. Follow-up attention: In addition to the sentencing results of Trump's "hush money case" on July 11, the Democratic National Convention will be held on August 19-22, with the possibility of replacing the Democratic presidential candidate, and the second presidential debate on September 10 will be the Democratic Party's last chance to counterattack.
Author: Tao Chuan Zhao Honghe Wu Bin Zhang Xinnan Today's weather is good Today's weather is good

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The answer to the question is NO. From overseas perspective, based on real-time data, the famous website PredictIt calculates that after the debate, Biden's probability of winning the election dropped from 47% the previous day to 33%, the lowest in nearly a year, while Trump's chances of winning increased to 59%.

Can we assume that Trump is sure to win? We believe that there are still many variables in the US election this year, and the key lies in the fact that the timing of this year's first round of debates is much earlier than in previous years, before both parties have confirmed their candidates. Looking ahead, the Democratic Party's strategy may mainly have two paths: One is to continue to promote Biden's candidacy. The key is expectation difference. Whether intentional or unintentional, the first round of debate has lowered market expectations to the bottom, and then counterattacks in the second round of debate. This is similar to the 2016 presidential election, in which Trump turned the tide against Hillary Clinton in the third round of debates. Second, Biden may drop out and choose new candidates. The key is to select suitable candidates and unify the party's support and opinions in the short term. The sequence of Vice President Harris in this list is undoubtedly among the top. Based on this, the new candidate still has the possibility to turn the tide in the second round of debates in September.

One is to continue to promote Biden's candidacy. The key is expectation difference. Whether intentional or unintentional, the first round of debate has lowered market expectations to the bottom, and then counterattacks in the second round of debate. This is similar to the 2016 presidential election, in which Trump turned the tide against Hillary Clinton in the third round of debates.

Second, Biden may drop out and choose new candidates. The key is to select suitable candidates and unify the party's support and opinions in the short term. The sequence of Vice President Harris in this list is undoubtedly among the top. Based on this, the new candidate still has the possibility to turn the tide in the second round of debates in September.

This debate, in terms of content, both candidates were rather restrained. Trump was clearly more "mature and savvy", and both sides seemed to have a tacit understanding not to play the "China card" too much. Most of the content of this debate, both sides' policy positions, were actually already well known in the market before. A one-and-a-half-hour debate focused more on energy and on-the-spot response. In this regard, after the baptism of 2016 and 2020, Trump was clearly more calm and at ease, and did not mention China too much, possibly due to the fact that the two parties' attitudes towards China are not very different in the current environment. In other areas:

On the economic front, Biden pointed out that the economy was in chaos when Trump stepped down, and that Trump’s proposed tariff increases pushed up prices. He emphasized his contribution to creating employment opportunities and promised to reduce inflation. Trump, on the other hand, criticized the inflation caused by Biden was "completely destroying us." Job growth is a result of the post-epidemic rebound. He himself saved the US steel industry through tariffs.

On the abortion issue, Trump still supports returning abortion rights to the states, while Biden said he would veto national anti-abortion laws. Trump's position of "leaving it to each state to decide" is like saying that civil rights should be returned to each state.

On immigration, Trump said that Biden's opening of the border has caused violent crime in the United States, and claimed to be the person with the "widest heart" on stage. Biden criticized Trump's immigration policy for causing family separation. On the geopolitical front, Biden expressed support for a Gaza ceasefire, while Trump accused Biden of triggering the geopolitical conflict.

On a personal level, in terms of Trump's crimes, Trump said he "did nothing wrong" but was convicted of being "manipulated," and insisted that there was fraud in the 2020 election. Biden said Trump was a "complainer" who couldn't accept failure.

However, it must be admitted that this debate is a real blow to Biden's candidacy, especially among swing voters.

Recently, due to reasons such as reduced inflation and easing of geopolitical conflicts, Biden's approval rating has been catching up with Trump, especially in swing states where the gap has narrowed. However, in this debate, Biden's old age was exposed, and Trump has disciplined and sharply criticized Biden's economic and immigration policies, accusing him of causing violent crime in the United States and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Looking at the basic situation, black and Latin American, young people, and high-income groups are more supportive of Biden, while whites, middle-aged and elderly groups, and low-income groups tend to support Trump.

After this debate, Biden may face the loss of support among some black people, high-income groups, and young people. Although his abortion policy is more in line with women's interests, the priority of the abortion issue may be weaken when women consider voting.

Follow-up attention: In addition to the sentencing results of Trump's "hush money case" on July 11, the Democratic National Convention will be held on August 19-22, with the possibility of replacing the Democratic presidential candidate, and the second presidential debate on September 10 will be the Democratic Party's last chance to counterattack.

Risk Warning: US economy and policy are better than expected; US election situation is better than expected.

Editor/Somer