Shareholders might have noticed that AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.9% to US$182 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$717m were in line with what the analysts predicted, AeroVironment surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$2.18 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following the latest results, AeroVironment's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$816.6m in 2025. This would be a solid 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 36% to US$2.90. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$804.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.73 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on AeroVironment's earnings potential following these results.
The consensus price target rose 7.8% to US$209, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AeroVironment at US$255 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$161. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the AeroVironment's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of AeroVironment'shistorical trends, as the 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 16% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 2.4% per year. So although AeroVironment is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around AeroVironment's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AeroVironment going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for AeroVironment you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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