Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Non-professional investors now account for a larger percentage in the US options market than ever before, investing a large amount of funds into short-term bets and favoring technology stocks.
Morgan Stanley's data shows that non-professional investors now account for a larger percentage in the US options market than ever before, investing a large amount of funds into short-term bets and favoring technology stocks. Morgan Stanley strategist Bram Kaplan said on Friday that individual investors accounted for 18.3% of total options trading volume in June, hitting a new historical high. More than 60% of orders are contracts that expire in a week or less, and in single stock trading, demand for technology options is the highest.
Regarding technology stocks, retail options traders have always been bullish, while exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for stock exchanges are the opposite. Nvidia (NVDA.US) and other artificial intelligence companies are driving the S&P 500 index to repeatedly hit new record highs in 2024, with demand for call options sometimes significantly higher than put options as investors try to catch the uptrend.
JPMorgan strategists said: "This may indicate that investors are using options as a substitute for stocks to gain better leverage channels; on the other hand, they may use options as overlays for their extensive market ETF long positions to gain profits and hedge risk."
In addition, according to a report released by the investment and trading platform eToro on Wednesday, financial service stocks and cash are currently favored by US retail investors. 54% of investors reported holding financial service stocks, followed by technology stocks at 49%, energy stocks at 39%, and communication stocks at 36%.
Editor / jayden