Emerging markets outlook: Growth 250 index continues to battle with its 75-day moving average, while biotech remains the focus of buying interest.

Fisco Japan · Jun 29 13:06

■6月月間ベースで反発基調が鮮明

今週の新興市場は上昇。同時期の騰落率は、日経平均が＋2.56％だったのに対して、グロース市場指数は＋3.43％、グロース市場250指数は＋3.65％と新興市場優勢の地合いとなった。サンバイオ＜4592＞が4連続ストップ高となるなどバイオ株が総じて買われたことや時価総額が大きい主力株もしっかりだったことで、6月27日までグロース市場指数は6日続伸、グロース市場250指数は4日続伸と強い動き。週末こそ、利益確定の流れが強まったものの、6月月間ベースでは、グロース市場指数は＋6.93％、グロース市場250指数は＋6.91％と反発基調が鮮明となった。

時価総額上位銘柄では、新たなM&Aを発表したGENDA＜9166＞が4日続伸。シーユーシー＜9158＞が上場来安値圏からの反発を見せた。また、インテグラル＜5842＞は強い上昇が継続しており連日で上場来高値を更新。また、週末こそ反落となったが、ウェルスナビ＜7342＞も5月30日の年初来安値からの反発が続いた。一方、アストロスケールHD＜186A＞、QPS研究所＜5595＞は反発基調を強めているが、ispace＜9348＞はさえないなど宇宙関連銘柄はまちまちとなった。

このほか、直近の新規株式公開（IPO）銘柄であるPostPrime＜198A＞は初値形成後も強い動きを続け、週間ベースではサンバイオに次ぐ上昇率となった。一方、23年12月期有価証券報告書が期限内に提出できなかったENECHANGE＜4169＞は週末ストップ安となった。

なお、27日にグロース市場に上場した豆蔵デジタルホールディングス＜202A＞の初値は公開価格を1.4％上回る1348円。28日にグロース市場に上場したロゴスホールディングス＜205A＞の初値は公開価格と同じ2290円となった。初値形成後、豆蔵デジタルHDは買われた一方、ロゴスHDは売られる展開となった。

■物色の柱はバイオ関連、IPOは1社

来週の新興市場は、ここまでの反発に対する利益確定売りが先行しそうだが、投資家マインドの改善を背景にしっかりの展開を想定する。グロース市場250指数は75日移動平均線突破を試す展開を迎えている。6月27日は4月1日以来となる終値ベースで75日移動平均線を上回ったが、週末、この水準を割り込んだ。25日移動平均線がしっかりと上向きに転じていることから、来週は一段上の200日移動平均線が位置する690ポイントを狙いところだ。

物色の柱となるのは、6月中旬以降、投資家の関心を集めているサンバイオやクオリプス＜4894＞などバイオ関連だろう。週末にラクオリア創薬＜4579＞が急落するなど、バイオ関連は乱高下しやすいが引き続き関心は高い。来週は7月2日に、独自の創薬基盤を用いた新規医薬品の開発などを手掛けるPRISM BioLab＜206A＞がグロース市場に上場することから、バイオ関連の刺激材料となろう。ここ最近のIPOは、PostPrimeのように初値が伸びなくても、初値形成後に強い動きを見せるケースが多いのでセカンダリーにも注目したい。

また、時価総額の大きい銘柄では、インテグラルが新値追いの強い動きを見せていることで注目するほか、GENDAも上場来高値（1995円、分割考慮後）を捉えてくると需給面を材料視した買いが期待できよう。

On a monthly basis in June, the rebound trend is clear.

Emerging markets rose this week. While the Nikkei average was up 2.56%, the Growth Market Index was up 3.43% and the Growth Market 250 Index was up 3.65%, making emerging markets dominant. Bio stocks were generally bought, with Sanbio <4592> becoming the fourth consecutive stop high, and since the market capitalization of the leading stocks was also solid, the Growth Market Index rose for 6 days until June 27th, and the Growth Market 250 Index rose for 4 days, showing a strong trend. Although the profit-taking trend strengthened by the end of the week, the overall trend in June was clear with the Growth Market Index up 6.93% and the Growth Market 250 Index up 6.91%.

In the top market capitalization stocks, GENDA <9166>, which announced new mergers and acquisitions, continued to rise for 4 days. Sea You Sea <9158> showed a rebound from the lower end of the listing price. Also, Integral <5842> has continued to rise strongly, updating its all-time high every day since listing. Additionally, Wealthnavi <7342> also continued to rebound from its year-to-date low on May 30, despite the reversal at the end of the week. On the other hand, space-related stocks such as Astroscale HD <186A> and QPS Research Institute <5595> are gaining momentum, while ispace <9348> is lackluster. PostPrime <198A>, a recent initial public offering (IPO) stock, continued to show strong movements even after the initial price formation and had the second highest increase rate for the week after Sanbio. However, ENECHANGE <4169> was limit down at the end of the week as it was unable to file its securities report by the deadline for the fiscal year ending December 2023.

In addition, the initial price of Mamezo Digital Holdings <202A>, which was listed on the Growth Market on the 27th, was 1.4% higher than the offering price at 1,348 yen. The initial price of Logos Holdings <205A>, which was listed on the Growth Market on the 28th, was the same as the offering price at 2,290 yen. Mamezo Digital HD was bought, while Logos HD developed into a sell-off pattern after the initial price formation.

The pillars of stock selection are bio-related, and there is only one IPO.

Next week's emerging market is expected to have a solid performance against the backdrop of improving investor sentiment, although taking profits from the recent rebound is likely to take precedence. The Growth Market 250 Index is poised to test its 75-day moving average. Although it closed above the 75-day moving average on a closing basis for the first time since April 1st on June 27th, it fell below this level at the end of the week. With the 25-day moving average firmly turning upward, targeting to 690 points, which is one stage above the 200-day moving average, is likely for next week.

The pillars of stock selection consist of bio-related stocks such as Sanbio and Quolips <4894>, which have attracted investor attention since mid-June. Although bio-related stocks are susceptible to fluctuations such as the sharp decline of Rakuria Pharmaceutical <4579> at the end of the week, interest remains high. Next week, PRISM BioLab <206A>, which develops new pharmaceuticals using its unique drug development platform, is listed on the Growth Market on July 2nd, which is expected to stimulate the bio sector. Recent IPO stocks, like PostPrime, may not have rising initial prices, but it is worth noting that many cases show strong movements after the initial price formation. In addition, in stocks with large market capitalizations, Integral is worth paying attention to because of its strong movements in pursuing new highs. If Genda reaches its all-time high (considering splits) at 1,995 yen, buying on a supply-demand perspective can be expected.

Furthermore, the pillars of stock selection are likely to be bio-related stocks such as Sanbio and Quolips <4894>, which have attracted investor attention since mid-June. Although bio-related stocks are susceptible to fluctuations such as the sharp decline of Rakuria Pharmaceutical <4579> at the end of the week, interest remains high. Next week, PRISM BioLab <206A>, which develops new pharmaceuticals using its unique drug development platform, is listed on the Growth Market on July 2nd, which is expected to stimulate the bio sector. Recent IPO stocks, like PostPrime, may not have rising initial prices, but it is worth noting that many cases show strong movements after the initial price formation. In addition, in stocks with large market capitalizations, Integral is worth paying attention to because of its strong movements in pursuing new highs. If Genda reaches its all-time high (considering splits) at 1,995 yen, buying on a supply-demand perspective can be expected.

In addition, in large market capitalization stocks, Integral is drawing attention for its strong upward momentum in new-value chasing, and GENDA is also expected to see buying interest based on supply and demand as it approaches its all-time high (¥1995, after considering stock split) since its listing.

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新興市場見通し：グロース250指数は75日線の攻防、引き続きバイオ関連が物色の柱に

Emerging markets outlook: Growth 250 index continues to battle with its 75-day moving average, while biotech remains the focus of buying interest.

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