Large cap

The three major US stock indexes fell last night, with Nike plunging 20%. At the close, the Dow fell 0.12%, the Nasdaq fell 0.71%, and the S&P fell 0.41%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose 2.588% to 4.4%, a difference of -35.8 basis points from the 2-year bond yield. The panic index VIX rose 1.63% to 12.44, and Brent crude oil fell 0.45%. Spot gold fell 0.06% yesterday, closing at $2326.23 per ounce. The US dollar index fell 0.08% yesterday to 105.85.

The US May core PCE price index rose 2.6% year-on-year, the smallest increase since March 2021. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut. The Chicago PMI for June recorded 47.4, the highest since November 2023. Buffett modified his inheritance donation plan and announced that his estate would be donated to a charitable trust fund managed by relatives.

Industry & Stocks

In terms of industry sectors, except for semiconductors, real estate, energy, finance, and industry, which rose 1.01%, 0.81%, 0.39%, 0.34%, and 0.04% respectively, all other S&P's six major sectors fell: utilities, communications, consumer staples, healthcare, technology, and materials fell 1.12%, 0.91%, 0.44%, 0.08%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively.

In terms of concept sectors, aviation ETF rose 0.05%, travel services sector fell 0.24%, high-end hotel Marriott fell 0.2%, Airbnb rose 0.01%, Norwegian cruise rose 0.8%. The solar energy sector fell 7.34%. In terms of financial technology sectors, PayPal fell 0.58%, NU fell 0.23%. The cybersecurity sector rose 0.12%, and SQ rose 1.74%.

China concept stocks rose and fell. KWEB fell 0.73%. Taiwan Semiconductor rose 1.27%, Pinduoduo rose 0.77%, Alibaba fell 0.51%, JD.com fell 1.6%, Ideal fell 2.51%, New Oriental rose 1.71%, NIO Inc. fell 5.24%, Xiaopeng fell 4.68%, Tal Education rose 0.19%, B station fell 3.38%, Luckin Coffee rose 1.93%, and Miniso rose 0.05%.

Most large tech stocks fell. Microsoft fell 1.3%, and the $13 billion deal in which Microsoft invested in generative AI company Open AI will face further scrutiny from the EU antitrust regulator. Apple fell 1.63%, and Apple is researching new technology for iPhone batteries to make it easier to replace them. Nvidia fell 0.36%, Google fell 1.84%, Amazon fell 2.32%, and Meta fell 2.95%. If the Australian government forces Facebook to pay licensing fees to media outlets for displaying links, Meta will consider blocking all news content from Facebook. Eli Lilly and Co. fell 0.4%, Broadcom rose 1.19%, Novo Nordisk A/S fell 1.21%, Tesla rose 0.23%, and Micron fell 0.53%.

Nokia rose 1.34%, and Infinera rose 15.78%. Nokia will acquire Infinera for $2.3 billion to strengthen its position in the optical network field, especially in the North American market. Qualcomm rose 2.07%, and according to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, China's domestic mobile phone shipments in May were 30.329 million, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. Toyota Motor rose 0.53%, and according to insiders, Toyota is discussing with relevant departments in Shanghai the possibility of building a wholly-owned factory.

Daily Focus

1. Nike plunged nearly 12% after hours, with fourth-quarter revenue lower than expected, and is expected to drop 10% in the first quarter.

On June 28, Nike’s fourth-quarter revenue was US$12.61 billion (vs. US$12.86 billion). Among them, Greater China’s revenue was US$1.86 billion (vs. US$1.83 billion). EPS was US$0.99, compared with US$0.66 in the same period last year; gross margin was 44.7% (45.3%) and inventory was US$7.52 billion (79.9%). In addition, Nike stated that the lifestyle business declined in the fourth quarter; the headwind of foreign exchange worsened in the fourth quarter; and revenue in the first quarter is expected to decline by approximately 10%.

2. The US dollar rose during the first US presidential debate, and the market believes that Trump has the upper hand.

In Asia-Pacific trading on June 28th, the USD rose amid market speculation that former US president Trump was leading in the first US presidential election debate. Current president Biden stumbled in the early stages of the debate, which may exacerbate concerns about his ability to defeat Trump in the November election. Carol Kong, a strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said, "From the current reaction, the market thinks that Trump is 'winning' this debate, but it is still too early to draw conclusions."

3. For government promotional purposes? Japan launched the "Tokyo Futari Story" app

On June 28th, ZAKER reported that in response to the increasingly serious crisis of marriage and childbirth, the Tokyo government in Japan has urgently released an official AI dating application called "Tokyo Futari Story," which intends to change the prevalent phenomenon of "Hitori" (loneliness) among young people today, using the concept of "Futari" ("two people" in Japanese).

The behind-the-scenes of this action is the severe decline in birth rates facing Tokyo and even the entire Japanese society. Last year, the number of deaths in Japan exceeded twice the number of newborns, with births falling for the eighth consecutive year to 758,631, a year-on-year drop of 5.1%, while the number of deaths rose to a staggering 1,590,503.

"Tokyo Futari Story" is marketed as being safe and reliable. It uses advanced AI algorithms and a government-backed real-name authentication system to help users find their ideal partner. It is aimed at single people aged 18 and over who reside, work or study in Tokyo, and matches them based on personal information and questionnaire results collected, using AI technology to provide suitable dating partners to users.

As it has received government backing and regulation, this dating app is very strict in examining user information. When using it, users need to accept government scrutiny, including proving their marital and income status, and even participating in online interviews to confirm their identity. These measures are designed to ensure the safety and reliability of the app and provide users with a better dating experience.

4. Apple shipped 40% more iPhones in China in May, with discounts bringing greater sales momentum

According to Bloomberg, iPhone shipments from Apple in China grew by 40% in May, with growth slowing from April, despite major retailers offering large discounts in the weeks leading up to the June shopping festival. After a decline in shipments in the first two months of the year, iPhone shipments grew in March and saw a staggering increase of 52% in April in China. Among other reasons, Apple and its Chinese dealers have been reducing prices and promoting sales since 2024, with these activities continuing until the large promotional event on June 18th. Prior to this, sales of Apple's latest generation of phones had fallen by two digits.

The Apple VisionPro goes on sale in China today. Store clerks say appointments to try VisionPro have been booked through early July.

On June 28th, Apple's first hybrid reality headset VisionPro officially went on sale in China. According to the official Apple website, the 256GB version of VisionPro is priced at 29,999 yuan, the 512GB version at 31,499 yuan, and the 1TB version at 32,999 yuan. Reporters visited Apple stores in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Shanghai today and found that VisionPro was already in stock and that the supply was adequate. Some store clerks said that appointments were still required for trial use, and the number of appointments had been booked through early July. At a Tianhuan Apple store in Guangzhou, several users were seen buying VisionPro. A clerk at a flagship Apple store in Shenzhen said that the company and developers were among the main buyers of VisionPro. It is understood that the applications that are compatible with Vision Pro are still limited, and domestic developers are still promoting the development of Vision Pro applications.

5. Multiple Wall Street banks have announced a rise in stock dividends and buybacks

After the US stock market closed on June 29th, several major Wall Street banks successively announced an increase in quarterly dividends and buyback plans. According to Jin10's statistics as of the time of writing, Bank of America plans to raise its quarterly dividend by 8%, from $0.24 per share to $0.26 per share; State Street Bank plans to raise its dividend by 10%; Citigroup plans to raise its dividend from 53 US cents to 56 US cents per share per quarter; JPMorgan plans to raise its quarterly dividend from $1.15 per share to $1.25 per share and plan to buy back up to $30 billion of stock; Morgan Stanley plans to raise its quarterly dividend from 85 US cents per share to 92.5 US cents per share and plans to re-authorize repurchases of up to $20 billion in stock; Wells Fargo & Co. is expected to raise its third-quarter dividend to 40 US cents per share. Other investment banks include Bank of New York Mellon, which plans to raise its quarterly dividend from 42 US cents per share to 47 US cents per share, and Goldman Sachs, which plans to raise its quarterly dividend from $2.75 per share to $3 per share.