Economists have broadly welcomed the latest key piece of inflation data, with thePersonal Consumption Expenditure(PCE) price index — commonly referred to as the Fed's favorite measure of inflation — dropping to a 2.6% year-on-year rate in May 2024, its lowest level since March 2021.
This decline signals significant progress in the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation closer to its 2% target, opening the door for interest rate cuts by year-end.
Following the release, the futures market currently predicts a 52 basis point reduction in the fed funds rate by December 2024, effectively pricing in two rate cuts, with a 68% probability...
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