Source: Sina US Stocks On the evening of the 20th Beijing time, the US stocks opened mixed on Thursday, and then the three major indexes rose slightly. Nvidia hit another new high and consolidated its position as the largest market cap company in the US stock market. Initial jobless claims in the United States last week were higher than expected, and real estate and manufacturing indexes were below expectations. Until the manuscript was submitted, the S&P 500 index rose 0.29% to break through 5500 points, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.37%, and the Dow Jones Index rose 0.13%. The US stock market was closed on Wednesday due to the June holiday (Juneteenth). On Tuesday, the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq both set new historical highs. The US stock market is expected to record gains this week. The S&P 500 index set its 31st new high this year on Tuesday. Due to the continued AI craze and the resilience of economic growth, it is expected to continue to support corporate profits, especially in the technology sector. Nvidia's stock price hit another new high. The AI darling and chip maker surpassed Microsoft last Tuesday and became the world's most valuable company. Against the background of the continued AI craze boosting the stock market, Nvidia's stock price has risen 174% from 2024 to date. As Nvidia consolidates its position as a thriving market leader in the AI theme market, its market value has surpassed that of Apple in early June. "Nvidia is still the most important stock in the world," said Chris Weston, head of Pepperstone research, in a report. However, Weston warned that the overall performance of the index market was poor, and the market participation was mediocre, suggesting that the rise was built on an unstable foundation. "The fact remains that the market is still very bullish on AI-related stocks and large tech stocks, and given the lack of clear immediate risks, the path of least resistance is for stock indices to rise." While consumer spending has shown signs of slowing and hints at potential economic weakness, investors continue to flock to the AI giant. The rise of Nvidia has also boosted its peers. Chip maker Broadcom has surged more than 60% from 2024 to date. Scott Chronert, Citigroup's US stock strategy director, wrote in a report on Tuesday: "We still believe that Wall Street (the S&P 500) is diverging from the corporate sector (the foundation of the US economy), is this strange? There is no doubt that generative AI is currently infiltrating the US stock market environment as a sustained driver of growth." Nevertheless, some commentators have noted that while this doldrums has not yet fully affected the US stock market, which repeatedly sets new highs, the rise lacks breadth beyond the largest tech companies, and this situation may continue to deteriorate. Thomas Fitzpatrick, managing director of R.J. O'Brien and Associates, said, "There's a feeling of AI theme that's very similar to the 2000-2001 US stock style, but as we know, markets stay irrational longer than you stay solvent. But for now, it's hard to stop the speeding train." Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said that due to three major unfavorable factors that will suppress stock prices, the US stock market will see a correction. This Wall Street veteran pointed out that so far this year, the stock market has performed strongly, with the S&P 500 index up 15% from 2024. However, he predicted that the benchmark index would fall 5% due to unfavorable interest rates, inflation, and stock valuations. The inflation rate is declining but still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, leading Fed officials to expect only one interest rate cut by year-end. As for Thursday's economic data, the initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States were almost unchanged last week, and the data for the previous week rose sharply. These data tend to fluctuate before and after holidays and school vacations. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that as of June 15, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 5,000 to 238,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits as of June 8 rose to 1.82 million. In the past year, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits has remained low as the labor market has shown resilience in the face of high prices and high interest rates. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose to 232,750, the highest level since September last year.

On the evening of the 28th Beijing time, the opening of the US stock market was mixed, and then the three major indexes rose collectively. As of press time, Dow Jones rose 0.35%, NASDAQ rose 0.36%, and the S&P 500 index rose 0.33%.

The first half of US stock trading in the year is coming to an end, and the three major stock indexes have recorded gains during this period. The US core PCE in May showed cooling inflation, and the market believed that this increased the possibility of a Fed rate cut this year. San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that inflation data shows cooling down, and policy effects are in line with expectations.

The last trading day of the first half of US stock trading. With the push of the artificial intelligence boom and the pursuit of investors, the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, has led the way in the first half of the year, rising by about 19%. The S&P 500 index rose by nearly 15%. The blue-chip Dow Jones index fell slightly behind with a growth rate of less than 4%.

One of the reasons for the poor performance of the Dow Jones index is due to a special pullback in the second quarter. During this period, the Dow Jones index fell more than 1.6%, while the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index both rose more than 4% and 9%, respectively, during the same period.

The three major stock indexes achieved large gains in June. The Nasdaq index once again led the way, with a cumulative increase of more than 6% so far this month. The S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones index rose more than 3% and 1%, respectively.

Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategy at Horizon Investments, said that the artificial intelligence theme 'took up a whole year and really drove market concentration. This will make the US stock market perform very well this year.'

As of Thursday's close, the Nasdaq index had risen by nearly 1%. The S&P 500 index rose by about 0.3%, while the Dow Jones index was close to flat.

Nike's stock price fell sharply on Friday after the sports retailer lowered its full-year guidance. After Nike released its financial report, many brokerages downgraded their ratings and target prices for the company.

Foot Locker's stock price also fell.

Investors welcomed the May core personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) on Friday morning. The Federal Reserve regards overall PCE data as its preferred inflation gauge, and market participants will rely on this data to determine when the Fed will start cutting interest rates.

The US Department of Commerce reported that the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy with volatilities, increased by 0.1% month-on-month, the smallest increase in six months. The data rose 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest level since early 2021.

The market generally believes that the slowdown in the inflation gauge favored by the Federal Reserve increases the possibility of a rate cut later this year.

Analysts said that the May PCE report provided good news for Fed officials seeking to cut rates in the coming months. Earlier, they lowered their expectations for rate cuts later this year after first-quarter inflation data was worse than expected. The Fed is closely watching the service industry's inflation, which is often stickier than housing and energy.

Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the May index increased by 0.1% compared to the previous month, the smallest increase since last October. So far, household demand remains resilient, despite borrowing costs affecting some economic sectors. The report showed that the consumption of the service industry after inflation adjustment grew by 0.1%, driven by airfare and medical care. Spending on goods increased by 0.6% driven by computer software and autos.

San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that inflation data shows cooling down, and policy effects are in line with expectations.

Daly said on Friday: 'If inflation remains stable or declines slowly, interest rates need to remain at a higher level for a longer period of time. If inflation drops or labor market changes occur, the Fed can adjust policies at an appropriate time.'

Daley said on Friday, "If inflation remains stable or declines slowly, interest rates will need to remain at a high level for a longer period of time. If inflation falls or the labor market changes, the Fed can adjust policy in a timely manner."

Daly said: 'US inflation is still too high. Our job is to lower the inflation rate to 2% as gently as possible. By 2025, we will continue to see inflation rates exceeding 2%.'

After the May PCE data was released, the CME Group's 'FedWatch' tool showed an 89.7% probability that the Fed will maintain rates at the August meeting and a 10.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. The probability that the Fed will maintain rates at the September meeting is 34.1%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 59.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 6.4%.

The market's response to Thursday's presidential debate was relatively flat. In a showdown with Republican opponent Trump, Democratic presidential candidate Biden performed poorly overall, deepening concerns about whether he can win the November election.

It's worth noting that the first presidential debate has just ended, and Biden's performance has plunged Democratic supporters into panic, with calls for Biden to withdraw. Former Republican presidential candidate Haley, who announced her withdrawal from the Republican primaries in March, also commented on Biden, saying she doesn't think he'll become the Democratic Party's presidential nominee.

Biden's problems in the debate began early. He stumbled out the door and sounded hoarse during the debate, and his answers were slow and incoherent, raising questions about his physical and mental state. He paused for a long time before the media interrupted him to discuss American healthcare.

One fundraiser called it "a disaster" and said he planned to discuss the situation with the Democratic National Committee chairman on Friday. "It's too scary. It's worse than I imagined. Everyone I talk to thinks Biden should withdraw," the source said.

Another senior Democratic campaign adviser, who has been raising funds for congressional leaders for more than a decade and helped raise money for Biden's 2020 White House campaign, said: "Biden must leave. He has to leave now. If he doesn't leave, we're going to be knocked down..."

Focus stocks

Most popular technology stocks have risen. At the time of publication, Salesforce was up nearly 3%, Qualcomm, AMD, Tesla were up over 2%, and Taiwan Semiconductor was up nearly 2%.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintains a buy rating on Tesla and a target price of $310. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Up nearly 2%, the stock price returns to the $200 level.

$Nike (NKE.US)$Fourth-quarter revenue was below expectations. Several brokerages have lowered their stock ratings and target prices for Nike. The company's stock price fell more than 17%, the largest intraday drop since 2001.

$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$Up more than 5%, Biden and Trump participated in the first debate of the 2024 US presidential election.

According to Bloomberg, Apple's iPhone shipments in China grew 40% in May, slower than in April, despite heavy discounts by major retailers in the weeks leading up to the June 18 shopping festival. After a two-month decline in shipments early this year, iPhone sales rebounded in March and exploded 52% in April. Part of the reason is that Apple and its Chinese dealers have been discounting since 2024, and these activities have continued until the big promotion on June 18. Prior to this, sales of the latest iPhones had fallen by double digits.

AMD released the AMD Software Adrenalin driver 24.6.1 WHQL update on Friday, with a focus on supporting two new games, The First Descendant and Once Human.

Microsoft's $13 billion investment in generative artificial intelligence (AI) company OpenAI will be subject to further scrutiny by EU antitrust regulators, according to reports. EU antitrust regulators are preparing to investigate OpenAI's exclusive use of Microsoft's cloud technology.

Wells Fargo & Co analyst Michael Turrin maintains a buy rating on Microsoft and a target price of $500.

On June 28, Google announced the global release of the Gemma 2 language model for researchers and developers. According to the introduction, Gemma 2 comes in two parameter sizes, 9 billion (9B) and 27 billion (27B), with higher performance and inference efficiency than the first generation, and significant security improvements built in.

Google says Gemma 2 27B is more competitive than products twice its size, while 9B performance is leading its class, ahead of Llama 3 8B and other open-source models.

At Amazon's Shenzhen Seller Closed Inbound Meeting on June 26, Amazon announced the addition of a special offer section to its main site, which uses a fully managed model (the platform is responsible for full-cycle logistics) and ships from China to the United States.

Meta Platforms said on Friday that if the Australian government forces Facebook to pay license fees for displaying links to media channels, it will consider blocking all news content from Facebook, consistent with its decision to implement similar laws in Canada.

Editor/Lambor