Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Author: Wang Xiaoli.

Nike fell sharply in trading due to lower-than-expected sales and Q1 performance guidance. The report raised concern among analysts about North American consumer demand, China's economic recovery, macro factors, and competitive impact. Nike CEO John Donahoe said in the earnings conference call that the 25th fiscal year will be a transitional year for the company, and revenue is expected to decline at a mid-single-digit rate.

Wall Street banks have lowered their ratings on the stock. After upgrading Nike's stock to 'buy', JPMorgan lowered its rating to 'neutral'. Analyst Matthew Boss warns, 'We believe that Nike's timetable for accelerating revenue growth during the conversion period of licensed products will be extended, and the global macro environment (especially adverse factors in Greater China and Europe, the Middle East and Africa) will make the road ahead more complex.'

Stifel downgraded Nike from 'buy' to 'hold' and lowered its target price from $117 to $88. He added, 'We still bullish on Nike's scale advantage in a category with long-term growth prospects and structural profit potential, but in terms of current valuation, we cannot provide a convincing upward reason until the inflection point of growth becomes more apparent.'

Morgan Stanley downgraded Nike from 'buy' to 'hold' and wait-and-see, primarily due to disappointing performance and lowered prospects. Alex Straton pointed out, 'Although Nike is undergoing strategic changes, recent performance has been plagued by poor quarterly results and guidance cuts.' She added, 'We believe that these profit and loss fluctuations will continue in the short term, and Nike's long-term growth and profit trajectory will subsequently become unclear and lower than our previous assumptions.'

Meanwhile, UBS Group has downgraded Nike to a "hold" rating. Analyst Jay Sole emphasized that "Nike's fourth-quarter report shows that its fundamentals are much worse than we expected. Our main conclusion is that Nike's earnings will not rebound quickly."

Editor/Jeffy