It is hard to get excited after looking at HF Sinclair's (NYSE:DINO) recent performance, when its stock has declined 13% over the past three months. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company's financial performance over the long term, which in this case looks quite promising. Particularly, we will be paying attention to HF Sinclair's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for HF Sinclair is:

16% = US$1.6b ÷ US$10b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.16.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

HF Sinclair's Earnings Growth And 16% ROE

To begin with, HF Sinclair seems to have a respectable ROE. Even when compared to the industry average of 18% the company's ROE looks quite decent. Consequently, this likely laid the ground for the impressive net income growth of 37% seen over the past five years by HF Sinclair. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

We then performed a comparison between HF Sinclair's net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 38% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. What is DINO worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether DINO is currently mispriced by the market.

Is HF Sinclair Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

HF Sinclair's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 11%, which is quite low. This implies that the company is retaining 89% of its profits. So it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business and this reflects in its earnings growth number.

Besides, HF Sinclair has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 34% over the next three years. Consequently, the higher expected payout ratio explains the decline in the company's expected ROE (to 10%) over the same period.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that HF Sinclair's performance has been quite good. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. That being so, according to the latest industry analyst forecasts, the company's earnings are expected to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com