Global macroscopic
The US core PCE annual rate fell to a new low in more than 3 years in May, and the three major indices rose slightly
The US core PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 2.6% in May, the smallest increase since March 2021. The US core PCE price index recorded a monthly rate of 0.1% in May, the smallest increase since November 2023. As of press release, the three major indices have risen slightly. After the US PCE data was released in May, traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.
The first debate in the US election is over, polls: most voters think Trump is superior to Biden
On the morning of June 28, Beijing time, current US President and Democrat Joe Biden and former President and Republican Trump held their first televised presidential candidate debate; CNN polls showed that most voters who watched the debate believed that Trump's performance was superior to Biden's, but most people also said that the debate had little impact on their choice of president. Furthermore, according to US media reports, the second debate between the two will be held on September 10.
Federal Reserve Barkin warns: The fight against inflation is yet to be won
Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin said that the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation has not been won. As long as the unemployment rate remains low and asset valuations remain high, the US economy is likely to remain resilient.
US stocks were “majestic” in the first half of the year, and they will face three major challenges next
Thanks to strong corporate profits, the resilience of the US economy, and investors' enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, the S&P 500 index has risen 15% so far this year, hitting 31 closing highs. Taking history as a guide, the brilliant performance in the first half of the year may suggest that the strong momentum of US stocks will continue for the rest of the year, but they are also facing three major challenges: political uncertainty, concentration of US stocks, and economic growth prospects.
When did Japan actually intervene? Bank of America: Keep an eye on the 164.5 mark; the speed of decline is also the key
Earlier this morning, after the Tokyo inflation data was released, the yen fell below the US dollar against 161 yen, setting a new record low since December 1986. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Shusuke Yamada released a research report stating that Japan's Ministry of Finance's bottom line may be 165. Once the yen continues to fall to the 164-164.5 range, the risk of intervention will rise significantly.
Hot news
Most of Star Technology's stocks rose before the market
Nike's US stock fell nearly 15% before the market, and the company's fourth-fiscal quarter revenue fell short of expectations
$Nike (NKE.US)$US stocks fell nearly 15% before the market. The company's Q4 revenue was US$12.61 billion, and analysts expected US$12.86 billion; earnings per share for the fourth fiscal quarter were $0.99, compared to $0.66 in the same period last year; gross margin for the fourth fiscal quarter was 44.7%, and analysts expected 45.3%. The company lowered its full-year results guidance, and revenue for the first fiscal quarter is expected to drop by about 10%. Morgan Stanley downgraded Nike's rating to a flat rate with a target price of $79.
Trump Media Technology Group's US stocks rose more than 11% in the premarket
$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$US stocks rose more than 11% before the market, after Biden and Trump participated in the first debate in the 2024 US presidential election.
Apple phone shipments in China increased 40% in May, and discount promotions are powerful
According to Bloomberg,$Apple (AAPL.US)$iPhone shipments in China increased 40% in May, down from April, even though major retailers were heavily discounted a few weeks before the June shopping festival. After a decline in shipments of Apple phones in the first two months of the year, growth was recorded in March, and shipments in China soared by 52% in April. This is partly due to the fact that Apple and its Chinese distributors have been cutting prices since 2024, and these events continued until the June 18th shopping festival sale. Prior to that, there was a double-digit decline in sales of Apple's latest generation phones.
Microsoft's $13 billion deal with OpenAI faces additional scrutiny from the European Union
According to Bloomberg,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The $13 billion investment in OpenAI will be subject to further scrutiny by EU antitrust regulators, which are preparing to investigate OpenAI's exclusive use of Microsoft cloud technology against its competitors. EU antitrust commissioner Margrethe Vestager is expected to rule out the possibility of an investigation under EU merger rules on Friday, and announced that regulators will ask Microsoft's competitors and customers more about the exclusivity clauses signed between Microsoft and OpenAI and whether these provisions may have a negative impact on competition. People familiar with the matter revealed that under the terms of the agreement between Microsoft and OpenAI, Microsoft's Azure is OpenAI's exclusive cloud provider — EU regulators want more investigation into this.
Focus on China Securities
Most of the popular Chinese securities stocks rose before the market
Amazon vs Temu! Citi is still bullish on Pinduoduo
Citigroup Research reports that Amazon's low-cost stores initially only offered a limited range of products and the upper limit was $20, so Citi believes that in the short term, Amazon's low-cost stores will not be very attractive to the US consumer group, and the impact on Temu's operations may be very small. For$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$Citi is still strongly optimistic. Citi raised the target price of Pinduoduo's US stock to 198 US dollars, which means that the company's stock price still has room to rise by about 51%.
Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks
US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder
(The following are all Beijing time)
13:45 US June Chicago PMI
22:00 The final value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June
22:00 US one-year inflation forecast for June
The next day
00:00 Federal Reserve Governor Bowman participated in a question-and-answer session
00:00 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly delivered speeches on artificial intelligence and the labor market
Editor/Somer