Recently, multiple chip manufacturers and wafer foundries have announced price adjustments one after another, which may trigger a new round of price increases.
Following the price increase in the second quarter, storage giant Samsung Electronics announced plans to increase the prices of major storage chip products such as dynamic random-access memory and NAND flash memory by 15% to 20% in the third quarter. Currently, Samsung Electronics has notified major customers such as Dell Technologies and HP of the price increase plan.
Storage chips are the most important segment in the semiconductor market. Starting from the end of 2023, the semiconductor storage industry will gradually enter an upward cycle.
Several overseas storage giants have achieved significant improvements in their performances one after another.
According to TrendForce, China's June 18 promotion and the release of new smartphones in the second half of the year are expected to drive inventory replenishment and positively impact production capacity utilization rate.
Benefitting from domestic substitution of integrated circuits, production capacity utilization rate has recovered quickly, and even some process capacities are already fully loaded.
Entering the traditional peak season for stocking in the second half of the year, the tight production capacity situation may continue until the end of the year. China's mainland foundries are expected to rebound and even further raise prices for specific processes.
1. Various fields are starting up production, with simulation and storage leading the way. Since the end of 2023, utilization rate has accelerated and climbed, with a 21k/month increase in capacity in 24Q2 compared to 23Q4.
Simulation BCD process is the most prosperous, followed by storage, low-voltage MOS, high-voltage MOS super junction. However, CIS, general logic, and IGBT have not yet recovered, and CIS is expected to have no significant increase in the short term.
2. Increase in prices brewing since the end of June confirms industry recovery. Due to warming downstream demand, Q2 ASP is expected to increase by 5% on a month-on-month basis.
China Minsheng Securities' research on the electronics industry believes that the industry may be brewing a price increase by the end of June, with negotiations being conducted one after another. The second-quarter price increase is expected to be reflected in the performance of foundries in Q3.
The simulation BCD process has a more aggressive price increase.
The existing production capacity of storage chips cannot meet demand, and ETOX has already risen by over 10% last month with good customer acceptance.
Display driver is expected to increase prices by 10-15%, and production capacity cannot fully meet customer demand.
Although IGBT and CIS have not increased prices directly, they have increased prices indirectly through the cancellation of discounts and other means.
Leading chip-related enterprises:
Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981), Shanghai Fudan (01385), Times Electric (03898), etc.