According to Futubull Finance APP, on June 28, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data on logistics operations for the January to May period. The overall operation of the national economy is stable, and the demand for logistics is steadily recovering. In May, affected by factors such as concentrated release of some market demand before the holiday and the May Day holiday, the growth rate of the total social logistics fell slightly, while the Logistics supply remained stable and the business climate remained in the expansion range. However, the logistics supply and demand relationship has become increasingly tight, and the competition in the industry continues to intensify, which forces the upgrade of micro-subject models, the innovation of technology, the reduction of costs and the improvement of efficiency, and the establishment of a modern logistic system is accelerating.

During the January to May period, the total social logistics in the country was 135.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.9% year-on-year at comparable prices; and in May, it grew by 5.7%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and slightly weaker in terms of recovery strength. From the trend of the year, the cumulative growth rate of logistics demand has remained steadily recovering since February, fluctuating around 6% in the interval. The current total social logistics is basically synchronized with the economic recovery, and the fluctuation range of the trend of each month compared with the same period last year has narrowed, and the basis for stable recovery of logistics operation has been laid.

From the perspective of the total social logistics structure, the trend of upgrading the logistics demand with new energy and new business models is improving. Driven by intelligent and green transformation, demand in areas such as units, residents, and recycled resources has grown rapidly, and the growth rate has stabilized and increased compared with the previous period; the basic logistics for industrial products and imports has remained stable, and the growth rate has slowed down slightly.

The logistics of units and residents has shown good growth momentum. From January to May, the total logistics value of unit and resident goods increased by 11.4% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared with January to April. In particular, since May, driven by the effects of holidays, e-commerce promotions, and the replacement of old consumer products, logistics demand related to consumer goods has rebounded significantly, with a 3.7 percentage points increase from April to May.

The logistics growth rate of industrial products is stable and slowing down. From January to May, the total logistics value of industrial products increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to January to April. In terms of the current month, the growth rate in May was 5.6%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. This shows that this month's fluctuations in industrial production have led to some adjustments to the logistics demand for industrial products. From the perspective of the logistics structure of industrial products, only the total logistics value of manufacturing has a growth rate of 0.4 percentage points higher than the average level, and the growth rate of traditional logistics such as mining is still lower than the average level of logistics for industrial products, indicating that the logistics of manufacturing is still an important force supporting the stable recovery of industrial logistics.

The growth rate of imported logistics has slowed down slightly. From January to May, the total import logistics increased by 5.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared with January to April. In May, the monthly growth rate was 2.6%, a sharp drop of 8.2 percentage points. The effective demand in some fields and industries is insufficient, and the running of traditional industries such as basic raw materials has slowed down, which has failed to provide effective support for the stable recovery of imported logistics. Looking at different commodity categories, the logistics for imported bulk commodities such as raw materials has all slowed down slightly. From January to May, the cumulative growth rates of iron ore and its concentrates, copper ore and its concentrates, coal and brown coal, and crude oil were 0.2%, 4.2%, 0.5%, and 2.4% lower than January to April, respectively; logistics for intermediate products such as integrated circuits, cars, and chassis increased steadily, with cumulative growth rates rising by 0.1% and 3.1%, respectively, compared to January to April.

The growth momentum of new energy logistics is still good. First, innovation continues to empower high-quality development, and the demand for logistics for high-tech manufacturing is still growing rapidly. From January to May, the total logistics value of high-tech manufacturing increased by nearly 9%, which is faster than the total logistics value of industrial products by 2.5 percentage points. Second, the digitalization of intelligence has expanded the consumption scene, and the related logistics demand of online e-commerce has rebounded significantly. From January to May, the online sales of physical goods increased by 11.5% year-on-year, which was 0.4 percentage points faster than from January to April, and the proportion of online consumer logistics value has continuously increased this year. Third, the concept of sustainable development is being solidly promoted, and the development of recycling and reuse is improving. From January to May, the total logistics value of recycled resources increased by 10.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared with January to April. The low-carbon and green transformation is solidly advancing, and the recycling of energy is continuing to increase.

The overall increase of operating income of logistics industry slows down, and the industry's business climate index falls. Looking at the market scale, the growth of logistics business income has slightly slowed down, and the expansion of the market scale has slowed. From January to May, the total operating income of logistics reached 5.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year. Looking at the business climate index of the industry, the growth momentum of business activities has slightly slowed down. In May, the logistics business climate index fell by 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, but it still maintained an expansion range of 51.8%. From the perspective of subdivided fields, some areas related to residents' consumption and efficient upgrading still maintain a relatively rapid recovery, and the supply of logistics has continued to adjust its structural status.

Railway transportation logistics operation is stable, and the organizational model is steadily optimized. From January to May, railway transportation logistics operation was smooth, and the transportation organization mode was steadily optimized. At present, the railway entry rate of major ports along the country's coastal areas and the Yangtze River trunk line has exceeded 90%, and the railway-waterway intermodal facilities network at major ports is accelerating its improvement. In terms of transportation structure, the multimodal transport development environment continues to improve. From January to May, the container throughput of ports throughout the country reached 130 million TEUs, and the proportion of railways entering the main port area increased significantly, with the proportion of railway-waterway intermodality increasing by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year. Especially in the transport organization upgrades of bulk commodities such as coal. From January to May, China's “North Coal and South Transport” used railways to collect 400 million tons of coal, and introduced the rail-iron direct transportation mode to transport iron ore at Qingdao Port, which shortened the transportation time from 7 days to 2 days and greatly improved transportation efficiency. In terms of transport scope, the cross-border transport organization model is constantly being optimized, and round-trip transport volume is becoming more balanced. From January to May, the China-Europe freight train has accumulated 7,908 trips, sent 861,000 TEUs, both of which increased by 11% year-on-year. The ratio of return to departure exceeds 80%.

Warehouse and logistics business has resumed, boosting the efficiency of industrial turnover. In May, the demand for warehouse and logistics had improved, and the turnover efficiency had increased. From the perspective of business volume, in May, the new order index of China's warehousing index was 52.8%, which had rebounded by 4.6 percentage points from the previous month to the expansion range, especially in the warehouse business related to daily necessities and cosmetics, the demand had increased significantly. From the perspective of turnover efficiency, the average inventory turnover times improved, the end-of-period inventory index fell, and the average inventory turnover times index in May increased by 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the end-of-period inventory index decreased by 4.6 percentage points from the previous month. The data of upstream industrial enterprises showed that the turnover days of finished goods inventory at the end of April had increased by 0.3 days, indicating that the warehousing and logistics efficiency had been improved to better match the industry, and further improved the turnover cycle of the upstream and downstream supply chains.

E-commerce express delivery business has entered the peak season of promotion, and aviation logistics is maintaining a relatively high growth. Since late May, major e-commerce platforms across the country have launched mid-year promotion activities, and overlapping factors such as Children's Day and Dragon Boat Festival have promoted rapid growth in express delivery e-commerce volume. In May, the total business volume index of e-commerce logistics was 129.8, and the rural e-commerce logistics business volume index was 129.7, which had both increased by 2.1 and 1.8 points, respectively, compared with the previous high base, with a growth rate of nearly 30% YoY. Active e-commerce logistics businesses have simultaneously promoted high-speed growth in aviation logistics business. In May, the amount of cargo and mail transported by civil aviation increased by over 24.4% year-on-year, and the cumulative growth rate remained above 30% year-to-date.

In May, the tight supply-demand situation in the logistics industry did not show significant improvement, and the industry's competitive pressure remained high. The main business indicators of key enterprises slowed down slightly, and companies continued to transform their business. Specifically,

First, logistics service prices have rebounded from a low level, with structural differentiation. The logistics industry is still in a situation of oversupply, and service prices are generally at a low level. Transportation prices and express delivery prices are still highly competitive, despite the rebound in shipping prices due to the influence of exportation. In May, the Shanghai Shipping Exchange's comprehensive freight index for coastal (bulk) cargo averaged 1,010.05 points, up 3.6% MoM. Bulk cargo has not yet returned to the level of the previous year. Although the volume of express delivery increased due to the 618 e-commerce promotion, the service prices did not improve significantly. In May, the overall single ticket price decreased YoY and MoM.

Second, logistics companies' business income has slightly declined, and profit level remains at a low level. Since the beginning of this year, given the slowdown in market demand and increased competition, micro-subjects have generally faced greater operating pressure. In terms of revenue, the fluctuations in corporate monthly revenue growth have increased. According to data from key investigations, from January to May, the business income of key logistics enterprises decreased by 0.8% YoY, compared to the growth of 1.7% YoY from January to April, with significant fluctuations over the past three months. Most sectors have yet to generate sustained new demand, and business stability is under pressure. In terms of profits, more than 40% of companies surveyed are facing losses due to supply and demand pressures, which is significantly higher than during the same period last year. The total profit of key logistics enterprises decreased by 1.9% YoY from January to May. The gap in profit level and risk resilience between large and medium-sized enterprises and small and micro-sized enterprises had expanded, and the situation of logistics companies of different sizes and in different sectors experiencing an increase in volume but no corresponding growth in profits may become more apparent.

Against this background, the industry continues to promote quality and efficiency improvements, and micro-entities are solidifying their fine operation capabilities from multiple dimensions. From the perspective of business expansion, enterprises are promoting logistics integration and the construction of a full network operation system. They are promoting related business growth through extending upstream and downstream and integrating the industrial chain. The supply chain contract order quantity of key enterprises increased by 22.6% YoY and maintained rapid growth throughout the year. From the perspective of cost-reduction and efficiency-improvement, logistics companies are actively promoting digital transformation, increasing investment in logistics technology transformation, and the index of fixed asset investment completions has increased by 0.7 percentage point MoM. Meanwhile, multiple departments and regions are coordinating to promote logistics policy harmonization, improve the logistics business environment, and coupled with the recent stabilization of diesel and other raw material prices, the rising business costs of key enterprises have been somewhat restrained. From January to May, the cost per RMB 100 of business revenue decreased by 0.4 yuan MoM.

Currently, the effective domestic demand is still insufficient, and the endogenous momentum remains to be strengthened. Against this backdrop, the supply-demand relationship in logistics has become tighter, issues such as insufficient effective demand among small and micro logistics enterprises and traditional logistics sectors, as well as low industry profitability have yet to show significant improvement. Logistics continues to operate stably, but it still faces certain pressures. However, it should be noted that the recovery process of logistics since the beginning of this year has been more stable as compared with the same period last year, with the expected activity in business still in the high prosperity range of around 55%. Overall, companies have a positive outlook for the market, and logistics operations are expected to continue to recover at a steady and fast pace.