Here's why Daiwa is bullish on Lenovo!

近日，大摩发布报告称，对AI PC的积极看法保持不变，并认为2024年AI PC普及率为2%的预测仍然不变，到2028年这一数字将增长到约65%；同时，大摩就投资者最关注的AI PC行业五大问题，进行了一一答复，联想仍为其首推股票。

为什么我们需要一台AI PC？有哪些应用场景？

大摩称，在Computex展会上感受到了一些投资者对AI PC的失望，他们表示没有看到吸引人的应用场景，或者由于网络不稳定，Computex上的演示并没有正常工作。幸运的是，我们能够体验新的Copilot+功能，如Recall、Live Captions和Cocreator，这些功能在我们最近的Computex报告焦点中有所提及。我们可以清楚地看到这些功能中有些是有应用场景的，其中Live Captions可能是最受欢迎的，但这些功能并不是"必须具备"的。

然而，大摩对AI PC的积极看法没有改变，因为并不是在争论由吸引人的AI PC应用场景驱动的显著需求增长，而是由软件、硬件和半导体公司组合推动的供应驱动，以提高AI PC的采用率。因此，大摩认为关于AI PC渗透率的预测2024年为2%，到2028年上升到约65%仍然保持不变，此前，大摩发布报告称，联想为其首推股票。

摩根士丹利最新观点认为，对AI PC的积极看法保持不变，因为这并不是在争论由吸引人的AIPC应用场景驱动的显著需求上升，而是由软件、硬件和半导体公司组成的组合推动的供应驱动增长，以提高AI PC的普及率。因此，我们认为到2024年AI PC普及率为2%的预测仍然不变，到2028年这一数字将增长到约65%。

AI PC会先在消费者市场还是商业市场普及？

摩根士丹利认为，随着高通Snapdragon X Elite芯片的推出，消费者AI PC将首先看到一些普及，因为它比其他来自AMD或Intel的AI PC芯片领先了几个月。由于高通的解决方案是新的，企业客户从当前的x86架构转向ARM架构将是一个艰难的过程，因为并不是每个程序都是原生支持ARM的。因此，企业客户采用基于ARM的系统的门槛很高，但消费者购买基于ARM的系统的门槛较低。根据反馈，高通芯片的性能和电池寿命似乎足够吸引消费者进行切换。

然而，目前并没有足够吸引人的应用场景来推动大规模采用，所以只有在消费者的AI PC出现故障时，切换到高通系统的机会才可能出现。然而，从中长期来看，随着Windows 11升级周期的到来，摩根士丹利认为企业领域将在AI PC采用方面超过消费者领域。

微软是否在补贴AIPC？

摩根史丹利称已经与几家PC OEM确认，包括但不限于华硕和惠普，微软设立了一个营销基金来补贴配备超过40 TOPS NPU的AIPC。这将有助于PC OEM和零售商更积极地推广AI PC，预计无论AI PC的销售情况如何，这笔补贴都将被接受，这对PC OEM来说应该是一个利好，并有助于在消费者群体中提高Windows on ARM的知名度。此外，日益剧增的CPU竞争也将是PC OEM的利好催化剂，因为这可能会推动定价竞争，或者导致CPU供应商向PC OEM提供更多的激励措施来推动销售。

联想ISG的盈利之路是怎样的？

其ISG负责人的离职会影响其业绩吗？2024年6月6日，联想发布声明，宣布ISG负责人Kirk Skaugen离职，并表示将立即开始全球范围内寻找这一关键领导角色的继任者。Kirk Skaugen先生于2016年加入公司，当时联想从IBM收购了x86服务器业务，并帮助联想构建和塑造了ISG业务，使其成为今天的全球业务。大摩认为，这并不影响ISG业务的基本面，ISG业务仍然有望在本财年下半年的某个时间点达到收支平衡水平。ISG业务有着坚实的基础，随着C2H24中AI服务器的增加和入门级服务器需求的改善，相信联想将能够继续前行。

在地缘政治风险的背景下，应该如何看待联想？

大摩认为风险有限，因为联想是一家全球公司。因此，并不担心这种风险，并认为其IDG业务受到任何潜在影响的风险都很低。在服务器方面，公司正在确保其符合美国政府对AI服务器的规定，以便未来能够从英伟达、AMD或英特尔等公司采购高端GPU。虽然其ISG业务的风险可能略高于PC业务，但这种风险并非是实质性的。

在2024年618购物节期间，联想的在线销售额超过了69亿元人民币。据京东数据显示，截至6月18日午夜，联想在笔记本、轻薄笔记本、台式机、游戏笔记本/台式机、一体机电脑和服务器/工作站等15个类别中领先。联想的<40TOPS AIPC(如YOGA Pro 16s)在618促销活动中表现强劲，这些产品结合了性能、静音和节能体验，并提供了更好的计算支持。

在京东618购物节期间，4070系列游戏笔记本销售额同比增长超过200%，PC以旧换新订单的交易量同比增长约100%。据京东数据，截至6月18日23:59，在618促销活动中，联想、华硕和ThinkPad在总笔记本和轻薄笔记本销售额中位列前三。在轻薄系列中，联想的小新15、华硕的Vivobook 14和ThinkBook SE是最受欢迎的产品。在游戏笔记本方面，除了联想和华硕，中文机械革命成功跻身品牌前3，联想军团Y7000、华硕TUF4、中文机械革命蛟龙16 PRO是最受欢迎的游戏笔记本产品。

Recently, Morgan Stanley released a report stating that its positive attitude towards AI PCs remains unchanged, and that its prediction that AI PC penetration rate will be 2% by 2024 is still valid, and this number will increase to about 65% by 2028. At the same time, Morgan Stanley has answered the top five concerns among investors in the AI PC industry, and Lenovo remains its top stock pick.

Why do we need an AI PC? What are the application scenarios?

Morgan Stanley stated that it sensed some disappointment from investors about AI PCs at the Computex exhibition because they did not see attractive application scenarios or the demos at Computex did not work properly due to unstable network connections. Fortunately, we were able to experience the new Copilot+ feature, such as Recall, Live Captions, and Cocreator, which were highlighted in our recent Computex report. We can clearly see that some of these features have practical application scenarios, and Live Captions may be the most popular, but these features are not "must-haves".

However, Morgan Stanley's positive outlook on AI PCs remains unchanged because it is not debating significant demand growth driven by attractive AI PC application scenarios, but supply-driven by a combination of software, hardware, and semiconductor companies to boost AI PC adoption rates. Therefore, Morgan Stanley believes that its forecast of 2% AI PC penetration rate by 2024, which will rise to about 65% by 2028, remains unchanged. Previously, Morgan Stanley released a report stating that Lenovo was its top stock pick.

Morgan Stanley's latest view believes that its positive view on AI PCs remains unchanged because it is not debating significant demand growth driven by attractive AIPC application scenarios, but supply-driven growth by a combination of software, hardware, and semiconductor companies, to improve AI PC penetration rates. Therefore, we believe that our prediction that the AI PC penetration rate will be 2% by 2024, rising to about 65% by 2028, remains unchanged.

Will AI PCs become popular first in the consumer market or the business market?

Morgan Stanley believes that consumer AI PCs will see some popularity first with the release of the Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite chipset, as it is several months ahead of AI PC chips from AMD or Intel. Because Qualcomm's solution is new, the threshold for enterprise customers to switch from the current x86 architecture to the ARM architecture is high because not every program is natively supported by ARM. Therefore, the threshold for enterprise customers to adopt ARM-based systems is high, but the threshold for consumers to buy ARM-based systems is lower. Feedback suggests that the performance and battery life of Qualcomm chips are sufficient to attract consumers to switch.

However, there are currently not enough attractive application scenarios to drive widespread adoption, so the opportunity to switch to a Qualcomm system may only arise when a consumer's AI PC fails. However, in the medium to long term, Morgan Stanley believes that the enterprise sector will surpass the consumer sector in adopting AI PCs with the arrival of the Windows 11 upgrade cycle.

Is Microsoft subsidizing AIPC?

Morgan Stanley claimed that it has confirmed with several PC OEMs, including but not limited to Asus and HP, that Microsoft has established a marketing fund to subsidize AIPCs equipped with more than 40 TOPS NPUs. This will help PC OEMs and retailers to promote AI PCs more actively, and it is expected that this subsidy will be accepted regardless of the sales situation of AI PCs. This should be a bullish catalyst for PC OEMs and help raise awareness of Windows on ARM among consumers. In addition, the increasing CPU competition will also be a bullish catalyst for PC OEMs, as this may push pricing competition, or induce CPU vendors to provide more incentives to PC OEMs to boost sales.

What is the profitability of Lenovo ISG?

Will the departure of its ISG leader affect its performance? On June 6, 2024, Lenovo announced that its ISG leader, Kirk Skaugen, had left, and that it would immediately begin a global search for his successor in this key leadership role. Mr. Kirk Skaugen joined the company in 2016 when Lenovo acquired IBM's x86 server business, and helped build and shape the ISG business into today's global business. Morgan Stanley believes that this does not affect the fundamentals of the ISG business, and the ISG business is still expected to achieve a break-even point at some point in the second half of this fiscal year. The ISG business has a solid foundation, and with the increase of AI servers and the improvement of entry-level server demand in C2H24, we believe that Lenovo will continue to move forward.

How should we view Lenovo against the background of geopolitical risks?

Morgan Stanley believes that the risks are limited because Lenovo is a global company. Therefore, it is not worried about any potential risks to its IDG business, and believes that the risks to its ISG business are also low. In the server area, the company is ensuring that it complies with the US government's regulations for AI servers, so that it can purchase high-end GPUs from companies such as Nvidia, AMD, or Intel in the future. Although the risks of its ISG business may be slightly higher than that of its PC business, this risk is not substantial.

During the 2024 618 shopping festival, Lenovo's online sales exceeded RMB 6.9 billion. According to JD.com data, as of midnight on June 18, Lenovo led in 15 categories including laptops, ultrabooks, desktops, gaming laptops/desktops, all-in-one computers, and servers/workstations. Lenovo's <40TOPS AIPC (such as YOGA Pro 16s)> performed strongly in the 618 promotion, combining performance, silence, and energy-saving experiences, and providing better computational support.

During the JD.com 618 shopping festival, the sales of the 4070 series gaming laptops increased by over 200% year-on-year, and the transaction volume of PC old-for-new orders increased by about 100% year-on-year. According to JD.com data, as of 23:59 on June 18, Lenovo, ASUS, and ThinkPad ranked in the top three in total notebook and ultrabook sales. Among the ultrabook series, Lenovo's Xiaoxin 15, ASUS's Vivobook 14, and ThinkBook SE are the most popular products. In terms of gaming laptops, in addition to Lenovo and ASUS, Chinese machinery revolution successfully ranked in the top three of the brand. Lenovo Legion Y7000, ASUS TUF4, and Chinese machinery revolution Jiaolong 16 PRO are the most popular gaming laptop products.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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大摩：看多联想的理由都在这了！

Here's why Daiwa is bullish on Lenovo!

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