With less than 4 months until the November 5 presidential election, Trump is still ahead of Biden in most key swing states.

This shows Trump's extraordinary staying power. After some supporters of Trump stormed the US Capitol, he left the White House in 2021 with a record low approval rating of 29%. Last month, he even became the first former president to be convicted of a felony.

Even so, according to recent polls, 48% of American voters would choose Trump as president, compared to 42% for Biden. Only 35% of voters support Biden, and 61% of voters don't.

According to FiveThirtyEight's average data, both Trump and Biden's approval ratings are slightly above 40%. Trump is currently leading by a narrow margin of 0.2 percentage points, which is entirely within the margin of statistical error. Independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr. (Robert F Kennedy Jr.) was excluded from the campaign team's first presidential debate, and his approval rating was about 10% in the polls.

But the US presidential election is not decided by a national vote. Instead, they solved the problem through a “winner-take-all” competition in almost all 50 states, which sent voters to the electoral college. No matter which candidate gets 270 of the 538 electoral votes, they will become the president.

Among the four key “swing states” — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — Trump maintains a single-digit lead. Several other states, namely Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, have roughly the same approval ratings.

What issues decide who will become the president of the United States?

The economy is America's voters' top priority, and Trump is winning on this issue.

According to the latest poll conducted jointly by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business (University of Michigan Ross School of Business), overall, 41% of voters trust Trump economically, while Biden's approval rating is only 37%.

A CNN survey in April found that 65% of registered voters said the economy was “extremely” important to their vote — more than any other issue.

The lingering inflation hurt Biden, and those most pessimistic about the economy are the voters most likely to want changes in the White House. Among those respondents who thought the US economy was “bad,” 41% said that changes in Washington's political leadership would strengthen their views on the US economy, 37% said the situation would improve as inflation falls, and 14% said their personal financial situation would improve.

Other top topics include immigration (polls show voters think Trump is more capable than Biden in this regard), upholding abortion rights, and reducing health care costs. Biden has an advantage on the latter two issues, and his campaign also made protecting democracy a core proposition. However, a recent Washington Post poll found that in the six swing states, more voters believe Trump rather than Biden can handle threats to American democracy.

Most Americans don't base their votes on foreign policy. But a monthly poll from the University of Michigan's Stephen Ross School of Business shows that voters have always said they think the US is spending too much on military and financial aid to Ukraine and Israel. This might help Trump.

Although Trump has yet to say he will cut aid to these two countries, the former president has made it clear that he expects the rest of Europe to increase defense spending when confronting Russia. The Republicans also blocked congressional efforts to approve aid to these two countries until mid-April, after months of stalemate.

And how voters view Biden and Trump is probably the most important factor.

Most voters said that 78-year-old Trump is physically and mentally healthier than 81-year-old Biden, but they are less confident about Trump's moral behavior during his administration. According to an April Pew Research poll, 62% of registered voters said they don't believe Biden is mentally competent for the job. In contrast, 59% of voters said they don't believe Trump will abide by morality.

Last month, Trump became America's first former president to be convicted of a serious crime, but the impact was barely visible in polls. According to a recent survey, about 90% of Republicans still have a crush on him, and 68% of registered voters said it had no effect on them.

Trump is also facing other criminal charges. According to a joint poll conducted by “Politics” magazine and Ipsos, although most independent Americans believe Trump is guilty of these charges, it is increasingly unlikely that these cases will be completed before the November 5 election. The Supreme Court is also expected to rule soon on whether Trump's actions during his presidency can be exempt from prosecution.

Who has more money?

According to quarterly documents submitted earlier this year, Biden greatly surpassed Trump in the “money race,” and tens of millions of legal fees have exhausted Trump's treasury.

But Trump has been trying to reduce the deficit, and he has launched a wave of financing, including a $50 million gift from a reclusive banking heir, and other billionaires pledging to support his campaign.

Most of that cash will go to advertising. According to AdImpact, Biden's campaign and its affiliated Political Action Committee have bought nearly $240 million in advertising for the election, while Trump has bought $85 million.

This money is pouring into Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and other states in the US, where there will be lots of advertising as the elections approach. Just before the first presidential debate, the two campaign teams engaged in an “advertising blitz.”

The first debate before the US election, click to watch ▶️

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