According to a research report released by Ke Research, the overall real estate market will continue the weak recovery trend in the second quarter of 2024. On one hand, the enthusiasm of real estate developers to promote inventory has slightly rebounded, and the second quarter supply increased 11% on a quarterly basis, but it still fell 30% on a cumulative basis, especially in second-tier cities. On the other hand, due to the favorable policies from the central government to local governments and the rush by real estate developers in the middle of the year, the transaction volume steadily recovered in the second quarter, with first-tier cities being more resilient than second- and third-tier cities, and the June transactions stopped falling and stabilized.

The report predicts that the total transaction volume in the third quarter will continue to weakly recover, and the effects of new policies will continue to ferment. The transaction volume is expected to remain flat or even slightly exceed the second quarter, and due to a lower base in the third quarter of last year, the year-on-year decline will further narrow or even turn positive. Core first- and second-tier cities may see significant growth, and the transaction scale in third- and fourth-tier cities will continue the trend of hitting a bottom, while the market share of second-hand houses will continue to increase due to their price advantages.