Futu Early Report | The first debate of the 2024 US election is about to begin! Focusing on these four major issues; all eyes on it! The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicators will be released tonight.

Futu News · Jun 28 08:06

热点要闻

美国数据大致符合预期，市场转向周五PCE数据

美国初请失业金人数从前一周的23.8万下降到23.3万，而美国第一季度GDP终值为1.4%，与市场预期相符。与此同时，5月份的核心耐用品订单令人失望地下降了0.6%，而预期是上升0.1%。因此，没有什么大的意外，市场将很快转向周五核心PCE数据。

经济学家预计，周五公布的数据将显示，美联储青睐的核心PCE物价指数年率会从上月的2.8%降至2.6%。虽然这是自2021年3月以来的最低水平，但仍高于美联储2%的通胀目标。

鲍曼重申：直至更明显的通胀消退前，不准备降息

美联储理事鲍曼周四重申，在通胀压力仍居高不下的情况下，她仍未准备好支持央行降息。她认为，美联储目前的利率立场仍是具有"限制性的"，即使货币政策维持在当前水平，价格压力也会降温。她表示，如果未来的数据显示通胀进展停滞或逆转，仍愿意在未来的会议上上调联邦基金利率目标区间。

2024年美国大选首场辩论来了！聚焦这四大问题

美国东部时间6月27日晚上9点（北京时间28日周五早9点），美国总统大选的两位候选人特朗普和拜登将展开2024年大选的首场电视辩论。这场90分钟的辩论可能会涉及到两位候选人讨论他们的经济政策和其他问题的细节。其中，通胀、税收、关税和政府债务一直是选民和竞选活动中讨论的话题。

IMF罕见批评美国：赤字膨胀、债务繁重、贸易限制及银行问题都构成下行风险

国际货币基金组织（IMF）周四表示，美国的赤字过大，债务负担过重，并警告称，日益激进的贸易政策可能带来危险。IMF在称全球最大经济体“强劲、充满活力、适应性强”的同时，对美国提出了不同寻常的严厉批评。它还将美国今年的经济增长预期略微下调至2.6%，比4月份的预测下调了0.1个百分点。

美国银行：若日元跌至164.5，日本当局入场干预的风险将显增

美国银行外汇策略师Shusuke指出，日元兑美元贬值趋势中下一个值得关注的关键点位是38年来最低位164.5。他认为，若触及该水平，日本财务省再次干预的风险将明显上升。这位美银策略师认为近期美元兑日元上涨在一定程度上归因于国内投资者对日元供需的失衡扩大。美国银行此前表示将继续维持165作为财务省介入的红线。

美国二手房签约量指数意外跌至纪录低点，受高利率等因素影响

美国5月份二手房签约量指数意外跌至纪录最低水平，抵押贷款利率上升和高房价令潜在买家望而却步。全美地产经纪商协会(NAR)周四表示，二手房签约量指数下降2.1%至70.8，创2001年以最低水平。NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun表示，房屋库存上升，而需求下降，供需走势表明未来几个月房价上涨势头将放缓，不过只要经济继续创造就业岗位，库存增加将不可避免地导致购房增多，尤其是在抵押贷款利率下降的情况下。

美股复盘

美股三大指数小幅收涨，大型科技股涨跌不一

三大指数小幅收涨，截至收盘，道指涨36.26点，涨幅为0.09%，报39164.06点；纳指涨53.53点，涨幅为0.30%，报17858.68点；标普500指数涨4.97点，涨幅为0.09%，报5482.87点。

热门科技股涨跌不一，亚马逊涨2.19%，英伟达跌近2%，特斯拉涨0.53%，苹果涨0.4%，Meta涨1.26%，谷歌A涨0.83%，微软涨0.15%。

热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.21%。小鹏汽车跌超6%，爱奇艺、蔚来跌超5%，京东、拼多多、唯品会、微博跌超4%。

美国电商巨头亚马逊收高2.19%，股价再创历史新高

$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$隔夜再涨超2%，目前市值约2.06万亿美元。随着全球电商竞争的日益激烈，亚马逊宣布计划推出一个名为“低价商店”的新板块，专门提供低价的时尚及生活用品，允许中国卖家直接向美国消费者发货。

美参议院委员会对18家石油生产商发起调查

当地时间周四，美国参议院预算委员会宣布，已经开始调查18家石油生产商，因这些公司可能与欧佩克进行“非法勾结”，然后通过抬高油价获利，这损害了美国消费者和政府部门的利益。据悉，参议院委员会正在调查的生产商包括$埃克森美孚 (XOM.US)$、$西方石油 (OXY.US)$、$英国石油 (BP.US)$、$壳牌 (SHEL.US)$、$切萨皮克能源 (CHK.US)$、$雪佛龙 (CVX.US)$和$康菲石油 (COP.US)$公司等。该委员会要求这些石油生产商在7月12日之前提交一系列文件，包括2020年以来每家公司参与生产的员工与欧佩克代表之间的所有通信，不同石油公司高管之间的通信记录等等。

苹果将在iPhone 16中使用新的电池技术

据报道，$苹果 (AAPL.US)$将在iPhone 16手机中使用新的电池技术。据参与iPhone生产的五名知情人士透露，苹果正在探索使用一种新技术，让消费者更容易更换电池。

谷歌：在模型和企业平台能力方面取得重大进展

$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$表示，在全托管式统一AI开发平台Vertex AI的帮助下，该公司在模型和企业平台能力方面取得重大进展。谷歌云在Vertex AI上可以扩展基础能力。同时从下一季度开始，Vertex AI还将推出新服务，使客户能够利用专业第三方数据来支持AI代理。

$耐克 (NKE.US)$第四财季营收低于预期，盘后重挫超12%，

耐克第四财季营收126.1亿美元，分析师预期128.6亿美元；第四财季大中华营收18.6亿美元，分析师预期18.3亿美元；第四财季每股收益0.99美元，上年同期0.66美元；第四财季毛利率44.7％，分析师预期45.3％；第四财季库存75.2亿美元，分析师预期79.9亿美元。

“散户带头大哥”新目标？宠物概念股Chewy一度暴涨超34%

$Chewy (CHWY.US)$股价出现异动，是由于“散户带头大哥”Keith Gill通过社交媒体X发布了一个卡通狗的图像，与Chewy标志的图片颇为类似。Gill在$Reddit (RDDT.US)$上的昵称是DeepF-Value，在YouTube和X上的昵称是咆哮小猫Roaring Kitty。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

北水买入中移动超8亿港元，卖出腾讯近5亿港元

6月27日（周四），南下资金净买入港股36.59亿港元。

$中国移动 (00941.HK)$、$工商银行 (01398.HK)$、$招商银行 (03968.HK)$分别获净买入8.35亿港元、5.41亿港元、5.21亿港元；

$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$、$李宁 (02331.HK)$、$中国海洋石油 (00883.HK)$分别遭净卖出4.73亿港元、2.59亿港元、1.75亿港元。

如祺出行预计将从7月10日开始在港上市交易

$如祺出行 (09680.HK)$申请通过香港IPO发行3000万股，发行价指导区间为每股34-45.4港元，预计股票将从7月10日开始上市交易。

老铺黄金暗盘收涨53.33%，每手赚2160港元

$老铺黄金 (06181.HK)$周四暗盤高開，收漲53.33%，報62.1港元，成交額7933.4萬港元，總市值100.66億港元；每手100股，不計手續費，每手賺2160港元。

今日关注

关键词：美国5月核心PCE物价指数、6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数，日本5月失业率；美国总统候选人首场电视辩论

周五，经济数据方面，周五盘前美国商务部将公布5月核心PCE数据；6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数将于同日公布。

鉴于此前4月核心PCE同比增速跌至2021年4月以来最低，且个人消费意外下降，5月数据如果延续这种通胀降温的基调，将会给美联储降息事宜提供强烈的信心背书。

此外，美国一年期通胀率预期、日本5月失业率等数据也将公布。

经济事件方面，美东时间6月27日晚上9点（北京时间28日周五早9点），81岁的美国现任总统拜登与78岁的前总统特朗普将举行首次总统候选人辩论。

此外，2024年FOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金将发表讲话。

重磅新股方面，港股$元续科技 (08637.HK)$公布中签结果；$天聚地合 (02479.HK)$、$嘀嗒出行 (02559.HK)$、$老铺黄金 (06181.HK)$正式上市。

牛牛晨读：

对于投资者来说，这是一个理想的时期：恐惧气氛是他们最好的朋友。那些只有在评论员乐观时才进行投资的人最终会为毫无意义的保证付出沉重的代价。
——巴菲特

编辑/emily

Hot news

The US data roughly meets expectations, and the market is turning to Friday's PCE data.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell from 238,000 in the previous week to 233,000, while the final value of US GDP in the first quarter was 1.4%, in line with market expectations. At the same time, core durable goods orders fell disappointingly by 0.6% in May, while expectations were for a 0.1% increase. Therefore, without any big surprises, the market will soon turn to Friday's core PCE data.

Economists expect Friday's data to show that the Fed-favored core PCE price index will drop from 2.8% last month to 2.6%. Although this is the lowest level since March 2021, it is still above the Fed's 2% inflation target.

Bowman reiterated: no rate cuts until more pronounced inflation declines

Federal Reserve Board member Bowman reiterated on Thursday that she was not ready to support the central bank's rate cut in the face of persistently high inflation pressure. She believes that the Fed's current rate stance is still "restrictive," and even if monetary policy is maintained at current levels, price pressures will cool. She said she would still be willing to raise the federal funds rate target range at future meetings if future data shows that inflation progress is stalling or reversing.

The first debate of the 2024 US election is here! Focus on these four major issues.

On the evening of June 27th at 9pm Eastern Time (9am on Friday 28th Beijing Time), the two candidates for the US presidential election, Trump and Biden, will hold the first televised debate for the 2024 election. This 90-minute debate may involve the two candidates discussing details of their economic policies and other issues. Among them, inflation, taxes, tariffs, and government debt have been topics of discussion among voters and campaigns.

IMF Rarely Criticizes the United States: Deficit Inflation, Heavy Debt, Trade Restrictions, and Banking Issues Create Downside Risks

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Thursday that the United States' deficit is too large, its debt burden is too heavy, and warns that increasingly aggressive trade policies could be dangerous. While calling the world's largest economy "strong, vibrant, and adaptable," the IMF has issued an unusually harsh critique of the United States. It also lowered its forecast for US economic growth to 2.6% this year, down 0.1 percentage point from its April forecast.

Bank of America: If the Japanese yen falls to 164.5, the risk of intervention by the Japanese authorities will increase.

Bank of America's FX strategist Shusuke pointed out that the next key point worth paying attention to in the trend of the yen's depreciation against the US dollar is the lowest level in 38 years, 164.5. He believes that if this level is reached, the risk of intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance will be significantly increased. The Bank of America strategist believes that the recent rise in the USD/JPY is partly due to the widening imbalance between supply and demand for the yen among domestic investors. Bank of America previously stated that it will continue to maintain 165 as a red line for the ministry's intervention.

The US Existing Home Sales Index unexpectedly fell to a record low, mainly impacted by high interest rates and other factors.

The US Existing Home Sales Index unexpectedly fell to a record low in May, and rising mortgage rates and high home prices discouraged potential buyers. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Thursday that the index fell 2.1% to 70.8, the lowest level since 2001. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said that as housing inventory rises and demand falls, the supply and demand trend indicates that the upward momentum of house prices will slow in the next few months, but if the economy continues to create jobs, the increase in inventory will inevitably lead to more purchases, especially if mortgage rates fall.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

The three major US stock indexes closed slightly up, while large-cap technology stocks were mixed.

The three indexes closed slightly up, with the Dow up 36.26 points, or 0.09%, at 39164.06 points; the Nasdaq up 53.53 points, or 0.30%, at 17858.68 points; and the S&P 500 up 4.97 points, or 0.09%, at 5482.87 points.

Popular technology stocks rose and fell, with Amazon up 2.19%, NVIDIA down nearly 2%, Tesla up 0.53%, Apple up 0.4%, Meta up 1.26%, Google A up 0.83%, and Microsoft up 0.15%.

Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.21%. Xpeng Motors fell more than 6%, iQiyi and NIO fell more than 5%, and JD.com, PDD, Vipshop, and Weibo fell more than 4%.

The US e-commerce giant Amazon closed up 2.19%, setting a new historic high in share price.

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Up more than 2% overnight, the current market cap is approximately $2.06 trillion. As global e-commerce competition intensifies, Amazon has announced plans to launch a new sector called "Low-price Store," which exclusively provides low-priced fashion and lifestyle products and allows Chinese sellers to directly ship to American consumers.

The US Senate Committee is launching an investigation into 18 oil producers.

The US Senate Budget Committee announced on Thursday that it has begun investigating 18 oil producers who may have engaged in illegal collusion with OPEC, profiting by raising oil prices, thereby damaging the interests of American consumers and government departments. The Senate committee is investigating several oil producers who must submit a series of documents, including all communication between employees of each company participating in production and OPEC representatives since 2020, communication records between different oil company executives, and so on by July 12th.$Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$, $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$, $BP PLC (BP.US)$, $Shell (SHEL.US)$, $Chesapeake Energy (CHK.US)$, $Chevron (CVX.US)$ and $ConocoPhillips (COP.US)$Company executives and other members of the oil and gas industry received subpoenas from the Department of Justice, which broke news earlier this week. The Senate committee is investigating several oil producers who must submit a series of documents, including all communication between employees of each company participating in production and OPEC representatives since 2020, communication records between different oil company executives, and so on by July 12th.

Apple to use new battery technology in iPhone 16

According to reports,$Apple (AAPL.US)$A new battery technology will be used in the iPhone 16 smartphone. According to five insiders involved in iPhone production, Apple is exploring the use of a new technology that will make it easier for consumers to replace the battery.

Google has made significant progress in both model and enterprise platform capabilities.

$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$It revealed that with the help of the fully managed unified AI development platform Vertex AI, the company has made significant progress in models and enterprise platform capabilities. Google Cloud can extend basic capabilities on Vertex AI. From the next quarter, Vertex AI will also launch new services to enable customers to use professional third-party data to support AI agents.

$Nike (NKE.US)$Revenue in the fourth quarter was lower than expected, causing the stock to plummet over 12% after hours.

Nike's fourth-quarter revenue was $12.61 billion, below analysts' expectations of $12.86 billion; fourth-quarter revenue in Greater China was $1.86 billion, below analysts' expectations of $1.83 billion; fourth-quarter earnings per share were $0.99, compared to $0.66 in the same period last year; fourth-quarter gross margin was 44.7%, and analysts expected 45.3%; fourth-quarter inventory was $7.52 billion, and analysts expected $7.99 billion.

"Retail investor leader" has a new target? Chewy, a pet concept stock, rose more than 34% at one point.

$Chewy (CHWY.US)$The stock price surged because "Retail investor leader" Keith Gill posted a cartoon dog image on social media X, which was quite similar to the Chewy logo. Gill's username on[REDACTED] is DeepF-Value, and his name on YouTube and X is Roaring Kitty.$Reddit (RDDT.US)$The nickname on Reddit is DeepF-Value, and the nickname on YouTube and X is Roaring Kitty.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

Northbound funds bought more than HKD 800 million of China Mobile and sold nearly HKD 500 million of Tencent on June 27th (Thursday).

On Thursday, Southbound funds bought a net HKD 3.659 billion in Hong Kong stocks.

$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$, $ICBC (01398.HK)$, $CM BANK (03968.HK)$Net purchases were HKD 835 million, HKD 541 million, and HKD 521 million respectively.

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$, $LI NING (02331.HK)$, $CNOOC (00883.HK)$Net sales reached HKD 473 million, HKD 259 million, and HKD 175 million respectively.

Ruqi Chuxing is expected to be listed and traded in Hong Kong starting July 10th.

$CHENQI TECH (09680.HK)$Application approved to issue 30 million shares through Hong Kong IPO, with a price range guidance of HKD 34-45.4 per share. The stocks are expected to begin trading on July 10.

Old Shop gold rose by 53.33% on the dark market, earning HKD 2,160 per lot.

$LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$Thursday's dark market opened high and closed up 53.33% at HKD 62.1 per share, with a total turnover of HKD 79.334 million and a total market value of HKD 10.066 billion. Each lot consists of 100 shares, without computing handling fees, earning HKD 2,160 per lot.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: US May core PCE price index, June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, Japan May unemployment rate; US presidential candidate's first television debate.

On Friday, economic data, the US Department of Commerce will release May core PCE data before the market opens; the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for June will be released on the same day.

Given the previous April core PCE year-on-year growth rate fell to the lowest level since April 2021, and personal consumption unexpectedly decreased, if May data continues this inflation cooling trend, it will provide a strong endorsement of confidence for the Fed to cut interest rates.

In addition, US one-year inflation expectations and Japan's May unemployment rate data will also be released.

In terms of economic events, on Friday, June 28 at 9pm Eastern Time (9am Saturday in Beijing), the current 81-year-old President of the United States, Biden, and the former 78-year-old President Trump will hold their first presidential candidate debate.

In addition, FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will give a speech in 2024.

As for the heavyweight new stocks, Hong Kong stock$METASURFACE (08637.HK)$will announce the results of the allotment;$TIANJUDIHE (02479.HK)$, $DIDA INC (02559.HK)$, $LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$will officially be listed.

Futubull Morning News:

For investors, this is an ideal period: fear is their best friend. Those who invest only when commentators are optimistic will eventually pay heavily for meaningless guarantees.
- Buffett

Editor/Emily

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

富途早报 | 2024年美国大选首场辩论即将开启！聚焦这四大问题；万众瞩目！美联储最青睐通胀指标今晚来袭