Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Author: Zhuang Lijia.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ending June 22nd was 233,000, which was lower than market expectations of 236,000 and the previous value of 238,000. At the same time, the number of continuing unemployment claims in the United States rose to 1.839 million for the week ending June 15th, which is higher than market expectations of 1.824 million and the previous value of 1.828 million, marking the highest level since the end of 2021. This seems to be a warning signal indicating that it takes longer for job seekers to find work.

Compared to the later stages of the pandemic when there was generally a shortage of labor, hiring by US companies has clearly slowed down, and the US unemployment rate rose to 4% for the first time in two years in May. Economists and Federal Reserve policy makers are all focused on initial claims for unemployment benefits to look for signs of continued weakness in the labor market. But so far, the labor market has shown remarkable resilience.

Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, recently said that the labor market is approaching a potential "turning point," where further softness in labor demand could lead to an increase in the unemployment rate. Mike Wilson, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, said that how the US labor market evolves will determine the success or failure of US stocks. Any sudden weakness in the former could trigger a meaningful adjustment in the stock market, as the current rise is driven by hope for the "blonde girl." Wilson added that if non-farm payroll employment falls below 100,000 or if the unemployment rate rises above 4.3%, an economic slowdown will be evident.

Editor/Jeffy