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Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Devon Energy Corporation (NYSE:DVN)?

Simply Wall St ·  Jun 27 20:17

With its stock down 6.9% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN). However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Devon Energy's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Devon Energy is:

27% = US$3.4b ÷ US$12b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.27.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Devon Energy's Earnings Growth And 27% ROE

To begin with, Devon Energy has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Second, a comparison with the average ROE reported by the industry of 18% also doesn't go unnoticed by us. So, the substantial 48% net income growth seen by Devon Energy over the past five years isn't overly surprising.

We then compared Devon Energy's net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 38% in the same 5-year period.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:DVN Past Earnings Growth June 27th 2024

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is DVN worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether DVN is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Devon Energy Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

The high three-year median payout ratio of 50% (implying that it keeps only 50% of profits) for Devon Energy suggests that the company's growth wasn't really hampered despite it returning most of the earnings to its shareholders.

Besides, Devon Energy has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 26% over the next three years. Still forecasts suggest that Devon Energy's future ROE will drop to 19% even though the the company's payout ratio is expected to decrease. This suggests that there could be other factors could driving the anticipated decline in the company's ROE.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that Devon Energy's performance has been quite good. In particular, its high ROE is quite noteworthy and also the probable explanation behind its considerable earnings growth. Yet, the company is retaining a small portion of its profits. Which means that the company has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's not too bad. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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