Key Insights
- Using the Dividend Discount Model, American Electric Power Company fair value estimate is US$105
- American Electric Power Company's US$87.16 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
- The US$90.31 analyst price target for AEP is 14% less than our estimate of fair value
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of American Electric Power Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:AEP) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We have to calculate the value of American Electric Power Company slightly differently to other stocks because it is a electric utilities company. Instead of using free cash flows, which are hard to estimate and often not reported by analysts in this industry, dividends per share (DPS) payments are used. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.1%. Relative to the current share price of US$87.2, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)
= US$3.9 / (6.1% – 2.4%)
= US$105
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at American Electric Power Company as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for American Electric Power Company
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- See AEP's revenue and earnings trends.
- Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electric Utilities market.
- Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
- Is AEP well equipped to handle threats?
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For American Electric Power Company, we've compiled three pertinent aspects you should look at:
- Risks: You should be aware of the 3 warning signs for American Electric Power Company (1 is significant!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does AEP's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com