Fitch Solutions' BMI research institute under Fitch Solutions raised its forecast for the price of gold in 2024 from $2,100 to $2,250 per ounce on Thursday and had a "neutral" view on gold in the second half of the year, citing a "tug of war" between less dovish Fed and heightened geopolitical tensions as factors affecting prices. The company expects gold prices to trade between $2,150 and $2,350 per ounce in the coming months.

BMI said that while its stance is neutral, there is "significant downside risk to gold in H2 2024, specifically if the Federal Reserve does not start cutting interest rates from September, and if the US dollar sees sharp appreciation." Long-term, the agency expects gold prices to remain high compared to pre-pandemic levels over the next few years.

By contrast, Citigroup predicted in April that the price of gold would reach $3,000 per ounce in the next six to 18 months, while a Goldman Sachs analyst said last month that, under basic conditions, the price of gold could rebound to around $2,700 per ounce by the end of the year. And Bank of America also believes that with the Fed starting to cut interest rates and rising debt bringing economic uncertainty, gold prices could reach $3,000 per ounce over the next 12 to 18 months.

As of press time, spot gold rose 0.62% to $2,312.63 per ounce and has risen 12% so far this year. However, if the downturn continues, gold prices are expected to fall for the second consecutive week as traders wait for key inflation data after tough comments from Fed officials.

On the other hand, BMI expects lithium prices to continue to be under pressure in 2024-2025, below the high point of 2022-2023, due to the rapid expansion of global lithium supply, leading to lithium oversupply in the market.

BMI said in its outlook for lithium prices that in the long run, lithium prices could be affected by innovative battery chemistry technologies, including batteries that do not contain lithium or need to reduce their lithium content. While an increase in demand for lithium chemicals for electric vehicle batteries and energy storage systems is expected to support prices near current levels in the short term, a supply increase from large and emerging participants in lithium is expected to limit further price increases.

"In addition, advances in battery recycling technology are progressing faster than expected, expanding sustainable lithium supplies and bringing downside risks to lithium prices," the agency added.

Potential related concept stocks include Albemarle Corporation (ALB.US), Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM.US), Arcadian Lithium (ALTM.US), Piedmont Lithium (PLL.US), Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC.US), Standard Lithium Ltd. (SLI.US), Sigma Lithium Resources Corporation (SGML.US), and ioneer Ltd. (IONR.US).