Key points of investment:
Leading local publishing, with steady growth in revenue and strong profit-side resilience. As a leading local publishing leader, Shandong Publishing has a full industry chain business including publishing, printing, distribution, and material trade, and is actively developing innovative business formats such as education and training, research, cultural tourism, etc. Since its listing, the company's revenue has grown at an average compound annual rate of 5.33%, showing a steady growth trend. In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 2,470 billion yuan, an increase of 13.38% over the previous year, overcoming the adverse effects of the expiration of the tax relief policy, and achieved net profit of 211 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10%, net profit after deducting 200 million yuan from mother, an increase of 14.67% over the previous year, and strong profit-side resilience.
Backed by Shandong's major education province, the K12 demographic dividend is still there. The dual education business continues to grow. The company's business is rooted in Shandong Province. 86.40% of the company's revenue in 2023 came from within the province. As a province with a large population and a large education province, Shandong Province is a solid foundation for the development of the company's K12 dual education business. According to neonatal data from the Shandong Bureau of Statistics, and combined with factors such as promotion rates, we estimate that the total number of K12 students enrolled in Shandong Province from 2024-2025 will continue to grow, and the cornerstone of the company's dual education business development remains unchanged. Although the number of K12 students is expected to decline in 2026, the number of textbooks and teaching aids per capita is expected to increase, and there are structural improvements, considering that the population during peak childbearing periods enters the upper grades. At the same time, the compound annual growth rate of K12 students in Shandong Province from 2018 to 2023 was higher than the same period in the country, and Shandong Province will still have a comparative advantage in the negative growth phase in the future.
The dividend rate and cash dividend ratio continued to rise. The shareholder return performance was excellent. From listing in 2017 to 2023, the company's dividend ratio increased from 1.71% to 5.97%, and the cash dividend rate increased from 33.64% to 49.19%. Various dividend indicators continued to grow, and shareholder returns ranked among the top of publishing companies. The company's net cash flow from operating activities has been rising steadily in recent years, and its book capital is strong. In 2023, the company's book capital was 6.871 billion yuan, transactional financial assets were $1,915 billion, and time deposits and interest were $3,551 billion, totaling $12.337 billion. Abundant book capital and stable cash flow will provide strong support for cash dividends for subsequent years.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
We expect the company to achieve operating income of 131.88/141.94/14.803 billion yuan in 24-26, respectively, and achieve net profit of 17.17/19.00/2.06 billion yuan to mother. The company benefits from the demographic advantages of Shandong Province, the industrial chain is complete, and the main business is strong. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The risk of changes in industry and tax policies, the risk of increasing discounts on online channels, and the risk of general book sales falling short of expectations.