Global macroscopic
Before Thursday's market, the three major indices weakened collectively
Go long on US long-term debt! “Influencer US Bond ETF” TLT capital inflow hits record
The long-term bond ETF market has seen significant capital inflows as investors re-evaluate when the Fed may cut interest rates this year. This week, BlackRock's subsidiary reached 54 billion US dollars$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ It set a record for the largest capital inflow in a single day since its establishment in 2002. On Monday, the ETF attracted $2.7 billion in capital inflows. Although the fund's cumulative losses since this year are close to 3%, the net inflow from the beginning of the year to date has reached about 4.4 billion US dollars.
Notably, traders in the US interest rate options market are making bold predictions and bets on the Fed's future interest rate path. They expect that within the next nine months, the Federal Reserve will implement drastic interest rate cuts, reaching a total of 300 basis points.
In June, hedge funds rampaged US tech stocks!
On Wednesday, June 26, EST, Goldman Sachs released a report revealing new trends in market capital flows. According to the report, hedge funds have sold TMT stocks on a large scale in the past month, led by semiconductors and semiconductor equipment stocks, including Nvidia (reversing the year-to-date trend); in fact, as shown in the chart, the net sales of hedge funds in the US TMT sector this month set the highest record since Goldman Sachs PB records.
The yen plummeted to a 38-year low! Japan's “No. 2 person” stated that it will take countermeasures
As the yen plummeted all the way to a 38-year low, the Japanese government became increasingly unable to sit back. On Wednesday, the yen fell to an intraday low of 160.88 yen against the US dollar since 1986, causing the foreign exchange market to panic once again. On Thursday, the “No. 2 figure” in Japanese politics, Chief Cabinet Secretary Lin Fang, and Japan's Minister of Finance, Suzuki Shunichi, both made public statements, implying that action would be taken to interfere in the foreign exchange market and stop the rapid decline of the yen.
BMO increase forecast: the price of gold is bottoming out, and gold and silver will rise before the end of the year!
BMO Capital Markets said that although the gold market may lack a bullish catalyst to push the price of gold higher, the price of gold is establishing a solid support base. For the near future, the bank expects the average price of gold to be around $2,263 per ounce this year, up 4% from the previous average estimate of $2,168. BMO expects the average price of silver to be $27.30 per ounce this year, up 7% from the initial forecast of $25.60.
Hot news
Star Technology's stock had mixed ups and downs before the market
American Optical Disc previously fell more than 5%, and the performance guidelines were difficult to meet Wall Street's “high expectations” +HBM chip production capacity was limited
$Micron Technology (MU.US)$US stocks fell more than 5% before the market. According to news, Micron's third-fiscal quarter revenue was US$6.81 billion, and analysts expected US$6.67 billion; adjusted EPS was US$0.62, and analysts expected US$0.5. The company expects revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter to be between 7.4 billion and 7.8 billion US dollars. Analysts generally expected 7.58 billion US dollars, but it still did not meet the “high expectations” of more than 8 billion US dollars expected by some analysts; the adjusted EPS was about 1.08 US dollars, and analysts expected 1.02 US dollars.
Micron executives said that due to increasing factory production and difficulties in using chips and systems together, HBM's supply growth has actually “put the brakes on”, and orders for HBM chips are already full until after 2025, yet the smartphone and PC market is still sluggish.
Tesla has no rivals in the EV field! Recommended by the US investment bank Stifel: it is more like a tech giant, and is expected to be as high as $265
US independent investment bank Stifel said a few days ago that although electric vehicle manufacturers are facing challenges such as slowing demand and increased competition,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The stock price is still likely to rise. Moreover, the technology of traditional car manufacturers is insufficient to compete with Tesla in the EV field. In the latest report, Stifel rated Tesla's stock as a “buy” for the first time, with a target price of $265. The bank said that compared to the title “car giant,” Tesla is more like a tech giant.
Why were you beaten by Pinduoduo and Shein? Amazon is said to be setting up a discount store directly managed by Chinese sellers
According to reports,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$The plan is to launch a new section on its shopping site, which specializes in selling cheap products delivered directly from Chinese warehouses to overseas consumers. This is Amazon's strongest response at a time when low-cost websites such as Temu and Shein are growing rapidly.
Novo Nordisk: Will restrict sales of simeglutide in China
According to Bloomberg,$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$International business director Maziar Mike Doustdar (Maziar Mike Doustdar) said that the company will limit sales of its blockbuster diet drug Wegovy (trade name: Novo and Ying) in China to prevent the influx of Chinese patients leading to insufficient drug supply in other parts of the world.
Trump Media Technology Group rose more than 4% in the premarket, and the first televised debate between Trump and Biden is imminent
At 9 p.m. EST on Thursday (9 a.m. Beijing time on Friday), the US will hold the first televised debate of this presidential election. As of press release,$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$It rose more than 4% before the market, and has accumulated a cumulative increase of nearly 47% in the past 4 trading days.
Boeing has been reported again! Engineers say the 787 aircraft was manufactured in an uncompliant manner
Wednesday,$Boeing (BA.US)$Richard Cuevas, a mechanic at Strom's contractor for the main supplier, Necessary Aeronautical Systems, alleges that the manufacturing process for some parts of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner was unsafe and could have “devastating consequences.” Boeing, on the other hand, said it had investigated Cuevas' allegations before, and said that these allegations did not constitute a safety issue.
“Surging” the popularity of public investment in Rivian, Faraday will rise more than 15% before the market in the future
$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE.US)$It rose more than 15% before the market, and surged more than 73% overnight. According to the news, founder Jia Yueting previously posted some comments on the social media site X about Volkswagen's investment and cooperation with Rivian Automotive.
Focus on China Securities
Popular Chinese securities generally fell before the market, and Xiaopeng Motor fell more than 4%
Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks
US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder
(The following are all Beijing time)
Number of jobless claims in the US at 20:30 to the beginning of the week of June 22
20:30 Final value of the US real GDP annualized quarterly rate for the first quarter
22:00 Monthly rate of the US existing home contract sales index in May
Editor/Somer