As an important raw material for production and manufacturing, the trend of copper price affects the sensitive nerves of copper-using enterprises. After a strong rise, copper prices have recently rebounded from their historical highs in May and currently fallen by more than 13% from the year's high point. However, the market remains bullish in the long term. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan is 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Citigroup recommends increasing holdings of copper and believes that around 9,500 US dollars per ton is a good entry point. Will copper-using companies take advantage of the opportunity to replenish their inventory as copper prices fall? Officials from companies such as Goworld Electronics (000823.SZ) and Deren Electronics (002055.SZ) told reporters from Cailian Press that they purchase copper-related raw materials on demand. Copper Crown and Copper Foil (301217.SZ) stated that copper price fluctuations can be passed on to product selling prices. However, some electronic copper foil manufacturers have admitted that excessive fluctuations in copper prices are not conducive to cost control.

Copper prices have continued to rise this year and have fallen after hitting historical highs a month ago. Overnight LME copper closed at $9,595/ton, down 13.59% from the high point of $11,104.5/ton on May 20th, but still higher than the price of around $8,500/ton at the beginning of the year; recent adjustments in Shanghai copper's continuous contract have seen a range decline of about 6.85% from May 20th to June 26th.

Liu Yunzhen, an industry analyst at Zhuochuang Information Copper, told Cailian Press that in the context of high copper prices in the near future, demand is not ideal. Although there has been a slight relaxation in prices, they are still at a relatively high level, and judging from downstream terminal demand, basic procurement is the main thing.

Consumer electronics is an industry with a relatively high proportion of copper consumption. In addition to the home appliance field, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, AI servers, and other fields, copper consumption will increase significantly. From a cost perspective, a surge in copper prices may put pressure on related companies in the industry. Under the current weak copper price situation, will companies be willing to actively stock up?

A Deren Electronics (002055.SZ) securities department staff said, "We purchase copper based on customer needs, not in advance. For example, how many orders the customer has placed and how much raw materials they need, and then we purchase."

PCB is known as the "mother of the electronics industry," and companies in the industry chain also need to use copper materials for production and manufacturing.

A reporter from Cailian Press asked the Securities Department of Goworld Electronics as an investor and was told that the raw materials for copper-clad boards include copper foil, resin, etc., and copper foil accounts for a certain proportion of the company's costs. The company purchases copper foil directly instead of copper, and copper foil prices are also affected by copper prices. However, the company will not make large purchases just because copper prices have risen sharply or dropped sharply, but rather will make an overall judgment based on orders and specific needs before purchasing.

An employee from the Securities Department of Aoshikang (002913.SZ) stated that copper is a very important raw material in the company's products, and the company will plan actively based on the current international copper price.

Facing the recent fluctuation and adjustment of copper prices, an employee from Zhongjing Electronics (002579.SZ) stated that there is a relative strategy for procurement, and they will analyze these situations in a timely manner and make strategic preparations based on price fluctuations. However, it is not clear whether they are currently replenishing inventory.

How will the copper price trend this year affect electronic copper foil manufacturers? Copper Crown Copper Foil stated that the company uses a pricing model of "copper price + processing fee" and that fluctuations in copper prices can be passed on to product selling prices. At the same time, the company also carries out commodity futures hedging business to avoid risks brought about by product price fluctuations in production and operation.

However, some copper foil company officials told Cailian Press that large fluctuations in copper prices are not conducive to cost control. "When negotiating prices with suppliers, we use copper futures prices plus some shipping costs. If there are large fluctuations, it may result in a gap between the price in the contract and the actual purchase price or a lower expected price, so generally speaking, if the copper price rises, our product and processing fees will also rise, but if it fluctuates up and down, it may affect the company's actual profits."

PCB copper plating is yet another aspect of copper consumption. Listed companies such as Tiancheng Technology (688603.SH) and Sanfu New Materials (688359.SH) are helping the industry cope with rising copper prices through "process solutions". It is understood that Sanfu New Materials' Jiangxi Boquan Pulse Plating Process can effectively save copper balls and metal consumption, while improving plating efficiency. It has more than 100 mass production lines. The company has established long-term cooperation with Shennan Circuits (002916.SZ), Founder Technology Group (600601.SH), Shengyi Electronics (688183.SH), and other companies.

"The trend of copper price in the second half of the year is expected to fall and then rise, but the trend of high-level operation is difficult to change." Liu Yunzhen believes that the main reasons for the price drop include the market's doubts about whether there will be an interest rate cut in September, keeping watch on moderate cooling of inflation, and the current demand unable to form support for the rapid rise of copper prices. The later upward factors are mainly on the supply side, foreign mines shutting down and transportation interference are still problems that the market is worried about. At present, there is no obvious point of decline in domestic inventories, and with the fall of copper prices in the later period, the inflection point of inventory is expected to appear in the second half of the year, forming a certain support for copper prices."

According to JPMorgan's forecast, copper prices will reach a historical new high of $11,500 by the third quarter of 2025.