Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

Author: Wei Haoming. On the evening of June 27th, 9 pm Eastern Time, the two candidates for the US presidential election, Trump and Biden, will hold the first televised debate of the 2024 election. This 90-minute debate may involve discussions of the details of their economic policies and other issues. Inflation, taxes, tariffs and government debt have been topics of discussion among voters and in election campaigns. Product structure: 100-300 billion yuan products generated revenues of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

On the evening of June 27th at 9:00 pm Eastern Time, the two candidates for the U.S. presidential election, Trump and Biden, will have the first televised debate on the 2024 election. This 90-minute debate may involve discussions of the details of their economic policies and other issues. Inflation, taxes, tariffs, and government debt have been topics of discussion among voters and in the election campaign.

Taxation

One of the most important economic issues in this election is how the President will handle the 2017 "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" (TCJA). Many of the provisions of this law will expire by 2026, which will result in most tax laws reverting to their state before the law was passed.

The Brookings Institution's Tax Policy Center estimates that by 2022, the top 5% highest-income earners with incomes of $400,000 or more will receive 40% of the benefits from the permanent tax cuts. The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that extending the TCJA will also be costly for the federal budget, with the law's extension increasing government debt by nearly $5 trillion over the next decade compared to its expiration.

So what are the positions of the two candidates on tax issues?

Biden said that he will not increase taxes on people with incomes below $400,000, and he will let the rest of the TCJA expire; Biden also proposes to increase taxes on businesses and high-income earners.

Trump plans to abolish federal income tax and impose tariffs on all imported goods; Trump also promises to extend the TCJA tax cuts and proposes to abolish tip tax and reduce corporate tax.

Inflation

Inflation is the top concern for voters as the cost of living tightens family budgets and Federal Reserve efforts to limit inflation raise borrowing costs, squeezing spending for US residents. A Pew Research Center survey of US adults found that inflation is the top concern, with 62% of adults saying it is a "very big problem."

According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the annual inflation rate in the summer of 2022 rose to 9.1%, the highest level in over 40 years. However, since reaching its peak, the CPI has been trending downwards, with the year-on-year growth rate of the CPI dropping to 3.3% in May of this year.

So what are the positions of the two candidates on inflation?

Biden pointed out that his government has taken various measures to reduce family costs, including reducing prescription drug prices and cracking down on "junk fees" - referring to those hidden additional fees, including credit cards, food delivery, bank overdrafts, event tickets and other related fees.

Trump promised to repeal the green energy incentive measures passed by Biden in the 2022 inflation reduction bill, "ending Biden's inflation nightmare."

Federal debt

The US government's spending far exceeds the income during Biden's and Trump's term, and economists believe that there is no reason for this trend to be reversed during the next presidential term, regardless of who wins the election.

Although the US has held debt since its founding, economists believe that debt is growing at an astonishing rate. The federal government's debt is as high as $34.75 trillion, and the Fed's interest rate hike action has exacerbated the debt pressure, with higher interest rates making public debt more costly.

So what are the positions of the two candidates on the debt issue?

Biden proposed a budget this year that promises to reduce the budget deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years.

Trump promised to pay off all national debts.

Tariffs

Goldman Sachs analysts say that on the eve of the presidential election, the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index is at its highest level since the US became involved in the trade war in 2018. Tariffs refer to the tariffs levied by the US on goods and services imported from other countries, which are largely uncertain. Tariffs are often used to influence geopolitics, increase revenue, support emerging industries, or protect competitive advantages. Some economists worry that increased tariffs will be passed on to consumers in the form of additional costs.

So, what are the positions of the two candidates on tariffs?

Biden imposed tariffs on electric cars, photovoltaic panels, and semiconductors made in China last month.

According to reports, Trump has proposed tariffs on all imported goods to eliminate income tax.

Editor / Feynman