The first television debate for the 2024 US presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump will take place at 09:00 on Friday Beijing time. As Americans are still struggling with the highest inflation rates in forty years, livelihood issues are expected to be important in the debate.

Currently, the US inflation rate is about 3%, although it has fallen from its peak of over 9% two years ago, it is still not enough for consumers who paid lower prices just a few years ago.

Since President Biden took office in January 2021, the S&P 500 index has risen by 42%, and the employment market has been strong.

Although many voters have benefited from the rise in US stocks, potential homebuyers are frustrated by high mortgage rates and record-breaking home prices.

Evercore ISI analysts Sarah Bianchi and Matthew Aks, who have served in the Biden administration, pointed out, "This means that Trump should be successful in the economic debate."

"Biden's task is to avoid defending the economy too much at the macro level. He must shift the dialogue to two competing visions of the future," they said.

They said, "Voters tend to support Biden's idea of 'fair taxation for businesses and the wealthy.' If Biden can package and depict Trump's series of ideas as inflationary, he may make progress."

Biden may point out during the debate that 16 Nobel laureate economists have signed a letter supporting him and predicting that Trump's second term will reignite inflation.

Cryptos

Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at TD Cowen's Washington research group, said Americans who hold cryptos may want to listen to the debate.

Seiberg said, "We believe that cryptos are likely to be mentioned, giving each candidate a chance to expand their recent more positive views on this area." He added that there could be "headline news affecting the crypto industry" in the debate.

Seiberg said that despite the Biden administration's positive attitude towards law enforcement, it has "softened its opposition" in the past six months as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved crypto ETFs.

Trump said last month that supporters of cryptos should vote for him, and he had made negative comments about cryptos before expressing support for them.

Will there be widespread fluctuations in the US stock market?

Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, said that the upcoming debate will "provide a window into the thinking agility of Biden and Trump," which is important for domestic and geopolitical issues in the US and even potential market trends.

"If Biden makes mistakes in the debate, or has an even worse performance, the negative impact on the market will be immediate and will have significant geopolitical consequences," said Haines. Because the current president's "ability to govern displayed on the international stage will be questioned," this may "increase the risk of hostile forces taking more aggressive actions and threaten the political and international stability of the United States, which supports the financial market to some extent, and investors today are unaware of this. "

Haines also warned that "investors should not be too excited after the debate and over-interpret the results," because there are still more than four months before the election day, and there are still many variables in the 2024 presidential election.

Trump leads in most crucial swing states and these states are likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. The average results of swing state polls released by Real Clear Politics on Tuesday local time showed that Trump leads Biden in six swing states.

Editor/Somer