According to the Futu Securities APP, on June 27, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued a statement stating that due to the shortage of international production by foreign car companies, there is a huge supply-demand mismatch. China's good relationship with Europe and America has led to a surge in overseas demand for Chinese pickups. Since 2022, Chinese pickups have continued to grow in export markets, and exports from January to May 2024 still show strong year-on-year growth, with outstanding performance from Great Wall Motor, SAIC-GM and JAC Motors among others.

In May 2024, the pickup truck market sold 45,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 1% and a month-on-month increase of 2%, at a medium-high level in the past 5 years. Due to the relatively high base number of pickup trucks last May, the growth rate showed a good performance this year. From January to May of this year, pickup truck sales reached 218,000 units, an increase of 4% year-on-year, and overall performance was good.

In May of this year, pickup truck production reached 42,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, while pickup truck sales remained flat year-on-year. Pickup trucks accounted for 45% of commercial vehicle exports in May, making it the strongest export category. In the past two years, China's pickup truck production and sales have remained relatively stable, relying on exports. The performance of the domestic pickup truck market is relatively stable, especially the sales growth rate in rural areas, which effectively offset the shrinkage of pickups in large cities.

Compared to the thriving export market, the domestic sales growth rate of pickups in May was relatively weak, mainly due to the high base number of the Hundred Industry Renaissance last spring. Great Wall Motor continues to maintain its dominant position in the pickup truck market with excellent performance both at home and abroad. The performance of Chinese pickup trucks is relatively strong, with top performers including Great Wall Motor, JMC, Zhengzhou Nissan, and Jiangxi Isuzu. In the past two years, there have been great opportunities in the pickup truck export market, and some pickup truck companies have seized these opportunities to achieve strong growth. The export scale of SAIC-GM, Great Wall Motor, JAC Motors, and Changan Automobile is huge, with exports accounting for over 40% of their total sales. The trend of traditional block orders in the domestic retail market for pickups is still relatively stable. The pattern of the domestic pickup truck market is relatively stable, with Great Wall Motor, JMC, Zhengzhou Nissan, and Jiangxi Isuzu continuing to dominate. China's domestic electric pickup truck market is gradually starting, with Geely Radar and other electric pickup trucks gradually cultivating the market. It is expected that in the future, more new energy pickup truck products will meet domestic and foreign demand.

I. Overview of the Pickup Truck Market

1. Comparison of the Pickup Truck Market Trend in May Nationwide

In May 2024, the pickup truck market sold 45,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 1% and a month-on-month increase of 2%, at a medium-high level in the past 5 years. Due to the relatively high base number of pickup trucks last May, this year's growth rate was relatively good and overall performance was not bad.

From January to May of this year, pickup truck sales reached 218,000 units, an increase of 4% year-on-year, and overall performance was good.

In 2018, pickup sales reached 450,000 units, an increase of 10%. In 2019, cumulative sales of pickups reached 440,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. In 2020, sales hit 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 9%. Pickup sales in 2021 reached 550,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 14%, reaching a recent peak.

The overall trend of pickups in 2022 was relatively stable, reaching 513,000 units, a decrease of 6% from 2021. In 2023, the overall pickup sales reached 513,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, and the trend of pickups remained relatively stable. Compared to light trucks, pickups have remained relatively steady in the past two years.

2. Monthly Trend of the Pickup Truck Market over the Years

In 2024, the wholesale market trend of pickups was relatively strong, with a strong start in January, and a moderate peak in March. The trend of pickups was strong in May, selling 45,000 units. Due to the late Spring Festival holiday compared to previous years, 2-5 months remained at a high level. This year's pickup truck trend performed better in April and May, which is due to the later Spring Festival holiday.

Pickups are classified as industrial vehicles, so relatively few pickups are purchased before the Spring Festival. Pickup sales from March to December after the Spring Festival enter their peak season, which is also the time when real estate, engineering projects, and corporate purchases increase demand.

The performance of the pickup truck market directly reflects the development of small private business owners. The pickup truck market, led by Great Wall Motor and other companies, has become a pioneer in the recovery of the auto market after the epidemic. With the rapid activity of the overseas pickup export market, the pickup market is becoming increasingly complex.

With the popularization of middle-aged group's leisure and off-road culture, there is more space for self-driving and outdoor recreation, and people are choosing to play with pickups more.

3. Strong Performance of Pickup Truck Exports

In May 2024, pickup truck exports reached 22,000 units, with good year-on-year performance of both the monthly and cumulative figures. Great Wall Motor, SAIC-GM, Changan Automobile, JAC Motors, Beiqi Foton and other companies showed excellent export performance. However, the recent slowdown in commercial vehicle export growth is a common trend.

In 2023, China's cumulative pickup truck exports reached 132,000 units, an increase of 4%. This year, Great Wall Motor, as a typical representative of the pickup truck industry, has shown super-strong export performance. In May 2024, pickup truck exports reached 22,000 units, and the industry's export share remained high. In 2023, pickup truck exports accounted for 26% of total sales, while in May 2024, this figure reached 45%, an increase of 19 percentage points from 2023, highlighting the strong growth of China's independent pickup truck exports.

II. Regional Characteristics of the Pickup Truck Market

1. Changes in the Pickup Truck Market Area

The main regions of the pickup market are mainly in the northwest and southwest. The demand for pickup trucks in the western region is relatively high. In May, the demand for pickup trucks in the northwest was strong. At present, the demand for pickups in the southwest and northwest regions accounts for about 43% of the overall demand and has become the two core markets, among which the southwest market has a larger scale this year.

The western market has maintained a relatively stable trend in recent times, and the eastern region has fallen. Although the economy is active, the pickup truck market in the eastern and southern regions of China has not grown significantly.

Pickup trucks still perform relatively strongly in the northern and central western markets. This is also because the economy in these regions is relatively inactive and demand mainly driven by investment and engineering construction.

The development of private-use pickups needs to be further strengthened. The sales of pickups in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei experienced a certain recovery this year. The recent launch of passenger-use pickups by Great Wall Motors is worth looking forward to.

2. Analysis of Pickup Truck Sales Areas

The main sales areas of pickup trucks are still mainly in small and medium-sized cities and county-level markets, but the performance of county-level markets before the Spring Festival was relatively weak. In May 2024, medium-sized cities and limited purchase markets such as Beijing performed well. County-level markets continue to be stable, and major urban markets currently do not have obvious breakthrough features.

The market in major cities is gradually showing signs of shrinking after the explosion, while in limited purchase cities, the pickup truck market in Beijing performed well due to the tight license plate restrictions. The previously relatively strong markets such as Shenzhen and Tianjin are now in a relatively weak state. Chongqing and Chengdu have relatively strong performances. As a large market with an area larger than Beijing, Hangzhou has a good demand for pickup trucks in the tea farmer market.

3. Analysis of Competition in the Chinese Pickup Truck Market

1. Analysis of Pickup Truck Manufacturers' Performance

In 2024, major pickup manufacturers perform well. Great Wall Motors maintained a strong absolute advantage in pickups. Changan Automobile performed well in the foreign export market in May, and SAIC-GM-Wuling and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd. had strong performances in May. Jiangling Motors Corporation and Zhengzhou Nissan maintain a strong domestic leading position.

With the explosive growth of the pickup truck export market, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd. and Changan Automobile have quickly risen, forming the feature of top enterprises squeezing the sales of tail-end enterprises.

Recently, major traditional group pickup manufacturers perform well, especially SAIC-GM-Wuling and other prominent export performances. Great Wall Motors’ pickup performs well both domestically and internationally, and the vitality of new product launches is strong. Jiangling Motors Corporation’s pickup rebounded quickly. SAIC-GM-Wuling and Changan Automobile, which belong to the new forces, perform well in pickups comparatively.

2. Trend of Domestic Market Share of Pickup Manufacturers

In 2023, the domestic retail market for pickups still maintains a strong trend of 1+ dominance, but gradually shows a trend of differentiation. Great Wall Motors' pickup sales stand out. In May of this year, Great Wall Motors' pickup domestic sales accounted for 50% of the total market share, and Jiangling Motors Corporation, Zhengzhou Nissan, Jiangxi Isuzu and other manufacturers maintained a strong position. The domestic market competition pattern is relatively stable, and the recent export performance of many manufacturers is strong, so the overall performance of the pickup truck market is relatively strong.

3. Trend of Export of Pickup Manufacturers

Great Wall Motors' pickups still lead in cumulative exports over the years, but the exports of SAIC-GM-Wuling and Changan Automobile are super strong. Due to the good export foundation and strong export system of SAIC Group, SAIC-GM-Wuling has a strong export growth. Recently, the growth rate of exports of pickups and other vehicles has slowed down, and is facing a significant impact from the improvement of overseas supply and the weakening of demand.

Great Wall Motor's pickup truck exports remain the highest accumulatively over the years, but SAIC Maxus and Chongqing Changan Automobile's pickup truck exports have performed exceptionally well. Due to SAIC Group's strong foundation in exports and its own strong export system, SAIC Maxus' export growth is strong.

Recently, the export growth rate of pickups and other products has slowed down, and the export growth is facing a greater impact from overseas supply improvement and weakened demand.

4. Monthly Trend of Pickup Truck Sales Volume

The current primary pickup truck cities in China include Urumqi, Chengdu, Chongqing, Shijiazhuang, Harbin and other southwestern, northeastern, and northwestern regions. The demand in large cities has a certain scale. The demand for pickups in mining industries and areas with characteristic planting industries, such as Ordos, Yili, and Hulunbuir, is also very strong.

5. Monthly regional trends for pickup trucks.

Since 2020, with the upgrade to National VI emission standards, the update and iteration speed of pickup truck products has accelerated. This year, pickups have entered a market adjustment period. According to the pickup truck market tracking, Great Wall Motor occupies an absolute dominant position in China, accounting for nearly 50% of the market share. Great Wall Motor has a prominent market share in the northwestern and southwestern regions.

The top three pickup trucks make up 85% of the total market share, with Jiangling Motors Corporation performing well in the southwestern and Yangtze River Basin regions; Zhengzhou Nissan performing well in the northwestern and southwestern regions; and Isuzu performing well in the southwestern and northwestern regions.

In 2024, the incremental demand mainly comes from the southwestern region and the North China market. The incremental demand mainly comes from areas such as engineering construction, municipal electricity, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as new customers who pursue high-end, passenger-oriented, and off-road vehicles.

With the aging of the Chinese population and the aging trend of migrant workers, the trend of migrant workers returning to their hometowns is evident, which drives the recovery of small city and county markets. The mainstream traditional car models of mainstream automakers perform well. Great Wall Motor's product innovation has had a good effect, with new products such as the Wingle 7 performing outstandingly.