[Core Conclusion] The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be RMB 2,92/27.89/RMB 36.25 billion, respectively, and net profit to mother is RMB 326/4.34/576 million yuan. The company's coated imaging products successfully broke the monopoly of foreign manufacturers and filled domestic gaps. At the same time, it actively laid out chemical cleaning and temporary bonding and unbonding equipment to open up long-term growth space, covered for the first time, and gave the company an “increase in weight” rating.

[Main logic]

Glue-coated imaging equipment is the key equipment in the lithography process. It is the only core process equipment that works online with the lithography machine. The entry threshold for the industry is high. Currently, the localization rate is still low. The market has been monopolized by Japanese manufacturers for a long time, and the local manufacturer Xinyuan has achieved a breakthrough. As the only equipment manufacturer in China that can provide mass-produced front-end gluing projectors, Xinyuanwei launched the first Qiandao Track in 2018. After years of development, it has accumulated valuable experience in meeting process standards, online operation, and stable operation of lithographers, and has successfully completed online mass production with dozens of lithographers. The company's product model coverage continues to increase. Offline, i-Line, and KrF node products have been mass-produced, ArF submersible machines are accelerating industrialization, and the company signed new orders in the second quarter. As customer recognition increases, the company's market share is expected to continue to grow.

We estimate that the market size of Qiandao glue-coated imaging equipment in mainland China will be US$1,015 billion in 2023, and is expected to grow to US$1,317 billion in 2025. Currently, Qiandao's glued imaging equipment is mainly monopolized by Tokyo Electronics in Japan, and its global market share is as high as 90%. There is an urgent need to replace glued imaging equipment made domestically. As the only domestic equipment manufacturer that can provide mass-produced front-end gluing projectors, the company has successfully broken the monopoly of foreign manufacturers. Qiandao glue-coated imaging equipment has completed full coverage of 28 nm and above process nodes in the wafer processing process. Process technology below 28 nm is being verified, and it is expected that it will fully benefit from the domestic replacement trend of glued imaging equipment.

Actively lay out fields such as chemical cleaning, temporary bonding and unbonding to open up room for growth. The company has now become the leading physical cleaning equipment leader in China. The chemical cleaning machine received verification orders from well-known domestic customers in the fourth quarter of 2023, and is expected to be gradually released in the future. In terms of bonding equipment, Xinyuan Micro can now be applied to temporary bonding machines and unbonding machines for new products in Chiplet and other fields, and has also introduced orders from many domestic customers, further opening up room for growth in the advanced packaging market.

Risk warning: risk of new product promotion falling short of expectations, industry competition risk, macro-environmental risk