According to Canlys, the iOS operating system is expected to account for 55% of global AI phone shipments by 2025. Against the backdrop of the recovery of demand for consumer electronics and the entry of AI phones into the native stage, the AI phone era led by Apple will accelerate. On the product structure side, the operating income of 10-30 billion yuan products is 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
Zhongtong Finance APP learned that Huaxi Securities released a research report stating that according to Canlys' statistical predictions, the global penetration rate of AI mobile phones is expected to reach 47% by 2027, and the global cumulative shipments of AI mobile phones will exceed 1 billion units by 2026, with a compound growth rate reaching 63% by 2028. Canlys also predicts that the iOS operating system will account for 55% of global AI phone shipments by 2025. Against the backdrop of the recovery of demand for consumer electronics and the entry of AI phones into the native stage, the AI phone era led by Apple will accelerate. On the one hand, the upgrade of mobile phone chip components drives the volume and price of the AI phone industry chain to rise; on the other hand, the linkage with other AI intelligent terminals brings a more rich experience, and the synergistic effect is more obvious. Beneficiary symbols include Luxshare Precision Industry (002475.SZ), Avary Holding (002938.SZ), Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing (002384.SZ), Lens Technology (300433.SZ), Lingyi Itech (002600.SZ), Zhejiang Crystal-optech (002273.SZ), BYD Electronic (00285), etc.
Beneficiary symbols: Luxshare Precision Industry (002475.SZ), Avary Holding (002938.SZ), Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing (002384.SZ), Lens Technology (300433.SZ), Lingyi Itech (002600.SZ), Zhejiang Crystal-optech (002273.SZ), BYD Electronic (00285), etc.
Main views of Huaxi Securities:
The development of AI mobile phones has entered the native stage, and the penetration rate is expected to exceed 50% in 2027.
Mobile phone AI has gone through three stages: 1)AI APP stage: installing large-model APP products in mobile phones; 2)AI functionalization: realizing initial artificial intelligence functions in existing applications; 3)AI nativization: realizing AI experience in native service ecology, including multimodal end-side, large-model access, etc. Apple Intelligence drives the nativization of AI mobile phones, and Android mobile phone manufacturers have also joined the AI mobile phone layout. The AI mobile phone development ecology is visible. According to Canlys' statistical predictions, the global penetration rate of AI mobile phones is expected to reach 47% by 2027, and the global cumulative shipments of AI mobile phones will exceed 1 billion units by 2026, with a compound growth rate of 63% by 2028. With the improvement of AI processing capabilities, intelligent terminals such as PC/AR/VR/wearable devices/smart homes will also join the AI ecological layout, bringing consumers a richer artificial intelligence experience.
Apple Intelligence launches, accelerating the arrival of a new era of phone replacement.
Apple released its personalized intelligent system, Apple Intelligence, which consists of multiple highly intelligent generation models, including 1) a device-side language model with 3 billion parameters and 2) a language model based on larger servers, which runs on Apple servers through private cloud computing, and the overall performance is better than that of similar models. Apple's intelligent AI capabilities are deeply integrated with the underlying system, with system-level AI capabilities, providing users with perfect AI interaction experience. Apple has been deeply cultivating and laying out in the AI field for many years, constantly strengthening its AI capabilities through mergers and acquisitions and self-research, and multi-dimensional layout is accelerating the landing of end-side AI, and the complete hardware + system closed loop ecology has built a competitive barrier for the AI phone era. Huaxi Securities believes that Apple Intelligence will become the leader of AI phones, promoting the acceleration of native intelligence penetration. Canlys predicts that the iOS operating system will account for 55% of global AI phone shipments by 2025.
The improvement of AI mobile phone end-side computing power will drive the upgrade and innovation of the industry chain components.
Huaxi Securities believes that the improvement of end-side computing power may drive the upgrading of mobile phone chips and components, such as 1) SoC chips: AI mobile phones are intelligentized by end-cloud combination, and the processor requirements on the end-side will be further improved. Suppliers are also offering higher configurations, such as Snapdragon 8gen3, which can natively support 10 billion parameters; 2) Storage: AI mobile phones require higher DRAM capacity to meet higher processing needs; and with the increase in parameter quantity, the amount of memory required by LLM will also increase; 3) Camera: AI mobile phones involve multimodal interaction and will interact with other terminals in the future, which requires higher spatial awareness. Optical chips and components are expected to continue to upgrade; 4) PCB: With the upgrade of end-side computing power, it is expected that the performance of PCB specifications will be further improved; 5) Heat dissipation: AI mobile phone data processing volume is high, and the performance requirements for heat dissipation are higher. The amount of graphite used may be further increased, or it may be changed to a graphite+VC heat dissipation method.
Risk warning: Downstream demand is lower than expected, and technology research and development is lower than expected.