The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report reviewing the history of changes in the stock market before and after Japan's 80-90 economic bubble. The team believes that the Japanese stock market as a whole ended its long-term bottoming in 2009, and that the resurgence of the bullish trend was mainly due to EPS contributions. Behind the rise in profits, the rise in the company's profit margin is the core. Second, the rebound in the bottom-finding process generally corresponds to the stabilization of housing prices; behind it is active policies or phased economic restoration. Dividends and going overseas are long-term themes in a low-growth environment. The core assets of the incremental era cannot be continued, and high-end manufacturing, mass consumption, and information technology outperformed in the stock era.

1. Question 1: Where does the stock market fall to the bottom? What do you rely on to move up again? The Japanese stock market as a whole ended its long-term bottoming in 2009, and the rebound was mainly due to EPS contributions. Behind the rise in profits, the rise in the company's profit margin is the core. There is indeed a contribution to Japan's slow macroeconomic recovery after Abe took office. After 2012, Japan's real GDP growth rate and CPI both maintained positive year-on-year growth for a long time, showing a clear improvement over the 90s. More important, however, may be an improvement in the level of corporate profitability.

2. Question 2: What does the rebound in the bottom-finding process look like? It generally corresponds to the stabilization of housing prices, and what is behind it is active policy or phased economic restoration. In the long-term search for stock prices, Nikkei 225 still rebounded 4 times for more than half a year, namely 1992-93, 1995-96, 1998-2000, and 2003-07. The background often corresponds to a phased stabilization or even slight rebound in housing prices. Housing prices and stock prices are both barometers of the economy, and the common drivers behind the stabilization or rebound of the two come from positive policy or economic fundamentals. Fiscal strength in 92-93, monetary easing and economic recovery in 95-96, recovery after the 98-00 financial crisis, and the expansion of the economy during the Koizumi administration in 03-07.

3. Question 3: Long-term themes in a low-growth environment? ① Dividends: During the long-term downturn of growth centers, high-dividend assets outperformed for a long time. Earnings contributions from high dividends in Japan: money to earn PE → money to earn dividends → money to earn EPS. ② Going overseas: An economic and corporate growth source under sluggish domestic demand. Overseas revenue has become an important driver for the fundamentals and stock price growth of listed companies.

4. Question 4: Can the core assets of the incremental era continue? No, the dust returned to dust after the financial real estate bubble burst. High-end manufacturing, mass consumption, and information technology outperformed in the stock era.

5. Question 5: How are the technological advantages of a manufacturing-export-oriented economy reflected? The share of exports of automobiles, electrical equipment, medical equipment, and biopharmaceuticals increased in reverse.

Question 6. 6: Consumption - In addition to aging and consumption downgrade, what are the characteristics? Personal awareness and local consciousness are rising in three directions: low-end retail (7-11, AEON) - minimalist lifestyle & rational consumption; female consumption - (Unicharm, Shiseido) - female employment & local tendencies; home entertainment (Sony, Nintendo) - personalization & home culture.

Question 7. 7: Technology - Missing out on the technological revolution, can technology stocks still participate? One important reason why the Japanese economy has fallen into a long-term slump is that it has basically missed out on the information technology revolution and failed to seize the development opportunities of information technology and the Internet to achieve industrial transformation. The tech bubble feast, mirrored by the technical cycle of US stocks, led in gains in the 90s, and it is also a pity that it was missed.

8. Risk Reminder

Historical experience does not necessarily represent the future: the main findings of this article are based on Japanese historical data and regular statistics, and there are certain special historical background factors before and after Japan's 80-90 economic bubble, which may not necessarily directly reference the future;

Geopolitical risks: In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and energy transition, various geopolitical risks may ferment. It is not ruled out that a new black swan incident will occur in the future, which may have an impact beyond expectations on the capital market.