The Wisdom FinTech app learned that Huatai Securities released research reports stating that the Hong Kong stock market rose and fell back last week. The active outflow of foreign capital was the main drag on the capital side, but there were also positive signs: 1) foreign investment: passive foreign investment turned into net inflows to drive overall net inflows of Hong Kong stocks. The estimated net outflow scale of the trading plate narrowed down, and the configuration plate and the trading plate were differentiated or converged; 2) southbound: The net inflow of the southbound is still at a high level, and the continuation of the "dumbbell" increase feature, the Hong Kong stock through the central state-owned enterprises dividend ETF subscription attracted a large net inflow of southward flows, reflecting that the Hong Kong stock dividend still has attractiveness to mainland capital; 3) industrial capital: The buyback amount last week reached a new high in a single week since 2010, and the buyback market value ratio rose to the second-highest peak of the year, continuing to provide toughness to the Hong Kong stock capital side; 4) After the previous adjustment, multiple indicators show that the Hong Kong stock trading sentiment has cooled down sufficiently, and there are signs of stabilization. The Hang Seng Index short-selling ratio has dropped slightly to 14.9%, and the turnover of warrants and its proportion have bottomed out.

Here are the main points of HuaTai Securities:

Foreign capital trend: Active foreign capital net outflow, but overall configuration plate and trading plate differentiation or convergence

From June 13 to June 19, the configuration-type foreign investment calculated by EPFR turned into net inflows to Chinese equity assets. Among them, the net inflow scale of ADR increased, and the net outflow scale of Hong Kong stocks turned into net inflows, and the net outflow scale of A shares narrowed down. Configuration plate, active foreign capital net outflow of Hong Kong stocks/ADR, consistent with the recent market weakness, the net outflow scale of active foreign capital in Hong Kong stocks increased to USD 312 million (compared with the net outflow of USD 92 million in the previous week), but passive foreign capital turned into net inflows of USD 376 million (compared with the net outflow of USD 164 million in the previous week), driving the configuration plate into Hong Kong stock net inflows; trading plate, the estimated net outflow scale of trading-type foreign capital narrowed down to USD 1.538 billion (compared with the net outflow of USD 7.831 billion in the previous week). Although the above calculations may have some errors, the differentiation or convergence of the configuration plate and the trading plate are gradually apparent.

Southbound capital: Hong Kong stock through the central state-owned enterprises dividend ETF subscription, southward continues the "dumbbell" increase of Hong Kong stocks represented by new economic sectors such as automobiles/communications/electronics

Last week, the net inflow of southbound capital was RMB 22.25 billion, a decrease of RMB 2.58 billion from the previous week, but it is still at a relatively high level. The AH premium has slightly fallen to 139.1 on a month-on-month basis, which is in the central area of the calculated reasonable oscillation range (137-143), corresponding to the subsequent southward capital or still has support; Food and beverage/non-bank/steel/banking and other AH premiums are at a high level. Banks (CNY 5.57 billion), petroleum and petrochemicals (CNY 2.26 billion), and electronics (CNY 1.97 billion) are the top three sectors in terms of net inflows, while textile and apparel (-CNY 0.49 billion) and commercial retail (-CNY 0.03 billion) are the top two in terms of net outflows. Recently, the southbound capital continued the "dumbbell" increase feature, flowed into Hong Kong stocks dividends, and new economic sectors represented by automobiles/communications/electronics. The state-owned enterprise dividend ETF issued three first-time shares of Hong Kong stock accessories, and the net inflow of southward on the first and second days was 2.19 and 6.95 billion yuan, respectively.

Industry capital: The amount of buybacks has reached a new high in a single week since 2010

Last week's Hong Kong stock buyback heat hit a new high again, and industrial capital continued to provide toughness to the Hong Kong stock capital side: there were 236 buyback cases last week, an increase of 36 from the previous week; the buyback amount was HKD 9.48 billion, an increase of HKD 910 million from the previous week, reaching a new high in a single week since 2010. The buyback market value ratio rose to 0.0173, the second-highest peak of the year. In terms of industry dimensions, in the Wind secondary industries of Hong Kong stocks last week, software and services (HKD 5.2 billion), retail trade (HKD 2.08 billion), banks (HKD 1.27 billion) and other industries had the highest amount of buybacks. On a week-on-week basis, the software and services, banking, and pharmaceutical industries have the highest increase in buybacks. In terms of individual stocks, the top 10 stocks in terms of buyback amount are Tencent Holdings, Meituan W, HSBC Holdings, AIA, Kuaishou W, Hang Seng Bank, CSPC Pharma, CK Asset, Xiaomi W, and Skyworth Group.

Sentiment tracking: Multiple indicators show that the trading sentiment has cooled down sufficiently and there are signs of stabilization after the cooling down.

1) Valuation and risk premium: As of June 21, the Hang Seng Index risk premium has fallen slightly, but still remains above 1 standard deviation below the rolling 5-year average. From the perspective of PB-ROE, it still has cost-effectiveness among major stock indices in the world; 2) Short positions: Last week, the short positions of the Hang Seng Index fell slightly to 14.9%, among which the short position of Hong Kong internet-related stocks remained flat on a month-on-month basis, while Hong Kong real estate rose slightly by 0.016% on a month-on-month basis, reaching a high level since 2014; 3) Last week, the Hang Seng Index put/call ratio of options further rose to 1.15, approaching the high point of last April, which may reflect that trading sentiment has cooled down sufficiently; 4) Turnover of warrants: Last week, the turnover of Hong Kong derivative warrants fell slightly on a month-on-month basis to HKD 4.16 billion, and the proportion of turnover of warrants to total turnover of the main board increased slightly to 3.9%; it has rebounded from the bottom in the recent period, but still remains at a low level since 2010.

Risk warning:

The estimation model is invalid, and there is an error in the data statistical caliber.