维持“增持” 评级。伴随区域企业价格策略集体转向，以及差异化错峰模式落实扎实，两广水泥6 月以来复价执行良好，推动华南市场盈利预期企稳回升，公司作为两广区域龙头将充分受益，叠加前期预期偏弱下公司PB 已处于历史低位，有望迎来盈利及估值 同步修复，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The early implementation of Guangxi cement price increases was good. Profits in the Liangguang market are expected to rise steadily. As the leader in the Liangguang region, the company has fully benefited and is expected to usher in profit and valuation recovery.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Along with the collective shift in price strategies of regional enterprises and the solid implementation of the differentiated erroneous peak model, Liangguang Cement has implemented a good price recovery since June, driving a steady recovery in profit expectations in the South China market. As a regional leader in Liangguang, the company will fully benefit. Combined with weak previous expectations, the company's PB is already at a historically low level. It is expected that profit and valuation will be repaired simultaneously and maintain a “gain” rating.
The early price increase for Guangxi cement was well implemented, and profits in the Liangguang market are expected to rise steadily. Mainstream companies in Guangxi have been promoting prices in two rounds since June. Currently, it is quite optimistic to observe the implementation of the new price. We believe that the reason is, on the one hand, that core enterprises in the region are collectively shifting their price strategies to pay more attention; on the other hand, intense price competition in the early stages made most enterprises in the region agree with the market-based differentiated erroneous peak model. After implementation in Guangxi, it is expected that the price strategy will be extended to the Guangdong region, driving a steady recovery in the profit expectations of cement companies in the Liangguang market.
Q3 prices may continue to stabilize, and price flexibility can be expected during the Q4 peak season. Looking ahead, we will focus on two key points. The first is the resumption of navigation in Xijiang and the weak demand test in the Q3 off-season. We predict that the probability that the Q3 price center will remain relatively stable in the current context of steady improvement in the regional landscape situation; the second is the traditional peak season in South China, which begins in September. Looking at the current time, we believe that the demand side or margins have been fixed to some extent, and supply-side leaders are shifting to a strategy dominated by supply-side leaders to combine and strengthen the will of small and medium-sized enterprises during the peak season.
The company's valuation is historically low, and there is plenty of room for profit and valuation repair under the reversal of the pattern. As a regional leader in Liangguang, China Resources was affected by regional price competition in the early stages, and profit expectations weighed down the company's valuation center. Currently, PB 0.2X is already at a historically low level since listing, and the margin of safety is relatively sufficient. Combined with the current repair of profit expectations in the Liangguang market, there is plenty of room for simultaneous restoration of the company's valuation.
Risk warning: A cliff-style decline in demand and relaxation of supply-side regulation.
