Incident: The company released its 24-year semi-annual performance forecast. The company's 24H1 is expected to achieve net profit of 0.37 to 41 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51% to 46%, and a year-on-year reduction of 0.34 to 38 million yuan in net profit without deduction of 54% to 48%. Single 24Q2 is expected to achieve net profit of 0.32 to 36 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57% to 52%, and realized net profit without deduction of 0.32 to 36 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56% to 50%.
The year-on-year decline in 24H1's revenue and net profit was mainly due to changes in the timing of some exhibitions. 23H1 held 9 offline exhibitions in 8 countries and 8 exhibitions in 23Q2 alone, while 24H1 held 6 exhibitions in only 4 countries, 4 in a single 24Q2, and the 4 exhibitions in Mexico, Brazil, Germany, and Poland moved to 24H2.
The company's booth distribution throughout the year was extremely seasonal. 23Q4 revenue/net profit accounted for 44%/57% of the annual revenue, respectively. The key sales stage was from the beginning of summer to before 11. Follow-up attention was paid to booth sales progress, changes in contract debt amounts, and repayment progress. In addition, the company announced an equity incentive plan on ****e 24-year performance target is revenue yoy +56% and net profit +38%. If 100% of the performance targets are achieved, the company's net profit for the second half of the year will reach 232 to 236 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of about 99% to 103%; if 80% achieves the performance target, the company's net profit for the second half of the year will reach 177-181 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of about 52% to 56%.
Profit forecast: The company's revenue for 24-26 is expected to be 11.90/14.59/1,763 billion yuan, respectively, up 43%/23%/21% year on year, and net profit to mother will be 2.7/3.5/4.4 billion yuan respectively, up 43%/28%/29% year on year. The current stock price corresponds to PE 15/11/9X, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical risk, risk that booth sales progress falls short of expectations.