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特斯拉召回文件意外吐露重要信息 皮卡需求超乎想象 未来销量惊人

Tesla's recall document accidentally revealed important information. The demand for pickup trucks is beyond imagination and the future sales are astonishing.

FX168 ·  Jun 27 01:46

FX168 Financial News Agency (North America) - Tesla Cybertruck, also known as Cybrtrk or Cyber ​​Pickup, is a pure electric light commercial vehicle that Tesla claims will be launched since 2019. Tesla announced three models at the press conference. The basic model is a single motor rear-wheel drive with a range of 400 km and an acceleration time of 0 to 60 mph in 6.5 seconds; the performance dual-engine all-wheel-drive version has a range of 480 km and an acceleration time of 4.5 seconds; the highest-performance model is equipped with three electric motors and all-wheel drive with a range of 800 km and an acceleration time of 2.9 seconds.

The sales figures for the Cybertruck come from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recall notice regarding the massive windscreen of this rugged truck and wiper blades.

#Technology# #2024 Macro Outlook # #2024 Investment Strategy#

Tesla (TSLA) announced another recall of its Cybertruck, the fourth since its release last year. What investors should really pay attention to is that the number of Cybertrucks currently in use was accidentally revealed in the recall notice.

In a letter issued by the NHTSA on Monday (June 24), Tesla confirmed that it will recall a defective front wiper. The single large front wiper of the Cybertruck (the largest in passenger vehicles) may fail due to "excessive current". At the same time, another parallel recall notice was issued for the decorative panel of the truck bed.

Tesla also disclosed the number of vehicles affected by the recall, 11,688, which is equivalent to the number of Cybertrucks sold, including vehicles in use and those shipped to customers. Since Tesla did not officially disclose Cybertruck sales in its quarterly delivery report, understanding early Cybertruck sales is worth noting.

A more in-depth analysis of these numbers also reveals estimated monthly delivery data. Tesla began low-volume Cybertruck production at the Austin Super Factory in late November last year. A previous Tesla recall notice showed that 1,163 vehicles were delivered in December. This means that Tesla produced 10,525 vehicles in 2024, an average of 1,754 Cybertrucks per month, and there are five days left in June.

If this data is extrapolated to the end of 2024, Tesla may deliver about 23,500 Cybertrucks this year. However, at the annual shareholder meeting two weeks ago, CEO Elon Musk revealed that Tesla produces 1,300 Cybertrucks per week and sets an annual target of 2,500 Cybertrucks per week.

Producing 2,500 Cybertrucks per week is equivalent to producing 125,000 vehicles per year in theory (taking into account two weeks of factory downtime), which is half of Tesla's expected annual production capacity of 250,000 vehicles.

An even bigger question is whether there are enough Cybertruck buyers to consume the 125,000 units produced each year, let alone 250,000 units. Musk claimed last year that demand for Cybertruck was "beyond imagination" and revealed at the shareholder meeting that a lower-priced non-Foundation series Cybertruck is coming soon. The Foundation series starts at $102,235, but low-priced Cyberbeast ($96,390) and all-wheel-drive versions ($76,390) may also be launched soon.

The overall demand situation of electric vehicles is still uncertain, even for popular Tesla electric vehicles like the Model Y SUV. Musk confirmed at the shareholder meeting that due to the industry undergoing a transition period, short-term demand and sales will still face some difficulties.

"The current situation is very difficult," Musk said about the electric vehicle market, adding that competitors are also reducing their investments and production of electric vehicles.

Tesla is expected to report second-quarter overall delivery data early next week. According to Bloomberg's consensus, the market expects second-quarter deliveries to be around 441,000, higher than the first quarter's 386,800 but lower than last year's 466,100.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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